Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

What was going to be a philosophical podcast largely about uncrewed systems has been completely upended by a major change to AUKUS Pillar One. The plan from the get go has been for the US to sell us two second hand Virginia class SSNs, followed by a brand new one. But overnight that's been changed - and on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defence Minister Richard Marles announced that the new one has been dropped and we will now be sold three second hand boats.

The government has gone into spin overdrive, claiming that this is a massive triumph of planning - but it's not. If it is such a brilliant idea, why not have made this the aim from the first day? The government has repeatedly insisted that there is a plan and that plan is being adhered to, no matter what. Well, that plan has been dropped and now we have a new plan. In all probability the explanation is even simpler - the US has changed its mind and is no longer prepared to sell us new submarines because their own needs come first.

In the medium term, under the previous plan Australia would also buy an additional 2 new Virginias if the British designed SSN AUKUS runs late - as it almost certainly will. What has happened to that plan? Does it still exist - or will Australia now only be permitted to buy more used SSNs, taking the total to five?
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There's a great deal to unpack, starting with the Strait of Hormuz - and no one knows the exact state of negotiations between the US and Iran. Neither are particularly trustworthy and the situation seems to change hourly. And a quick reminder - this is a war initially cheered on by our government and even more enthusiastically supported by the opposition.
On the local front, the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been gutted, jeopardising Australia's submarine deterrence capability. Defence Minister Richard Marles gave an embarrassing speech last week focussed on blaming the opposition for all of the problems, overlooking the fact that he has just had his 4th anniversary as the Minister responsible. Quick summary - this has been a massive Defence failure, which has also been exposed by the ANAO. Even worse, it's this same group of manifestly incompetent people who are in charge of AUKUS Pillar One.
Finally a few words about Israel, which is continuing to massively lose international support by the treatment of peaceful protesters, including from Australia. The continuing destruction of southern Lebanon using Gaza-style tactics isn't helping.
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There were two major events last week - Donald Trump's visit to China and the Federal budget - and from a national security perspective both were something of an anticlimax, which is probably not a bad thing. The Defence budget continues to track upwards and is a 6% increase over the previous year, which looks to be well ahead of inflation. The Trump China visit doesn't seem to have achieved anything in particular, contrary to the boasts of the US President.

Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint and it will be interesting to see if the US goes ahead with a $14 billion arms sale. If that does not happen in the next couple of months that will be evidence of a shift in the dynamic. Then some words about satellite technology and how Iran is probably accessing commercial services from China.

Finally some thoughts about lagging US SSN production numbers and why our government says everything is fine when publicly available information shows otherwise. Also, why did Australia rush to supply military aid to the UAE? Could there be a connection with retired ADF and AFP personnel making a lot of tax free money in that country?
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To follow on from last week, we start with some thoughts about Mogami frigates and why none of them will ever be built in Australia. The simple fact is that WA companies do not have the necessary experience - and building some landing craft for the Army will not get them there. Secondly, in an outrageous oversight during the bidding process, no one was asked by Defence to provide a single line of costings on how the ships will be constructed in Australia.
Then some history of the Crimean War and the inability of British commander Lord Raglan to understand that the world had changed and that the enemy was different from what he was used to. This is appropriate remembering that just a fortnight ago, the retiring head of INDOPACOM USN Admiral Sam Paparo told Congress that the industrial base was not producing SSNs fast enough.
All sorts of fissures are occurring in the Middle East with formerly close ally Saudi Arabia denying the US access to military bases for the short lived Project Freedom. One wonders if at some point the US and Israel might also experience a rupture.
In our region, North Asia is nervously waiting for the Trump-Xi summit next week. No one knows what might happen - and this is the world we now inhabit.
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The stalemate in the Middle East continues with neither the US or Iran backing down. US President Donald Trump continues to do the bidding of Russia by withdrawing some troops from Germany.

On the local scene, Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson addressed the National Press Club and outlined a vision noticeably different from the government's - particularly regarding the US alliance. He stated the obvious that under Trump the US is no longer the reliable, predictable ally it once was.

He remains enthusiastic about the purchase of nuclear-powered submarines but is less certain about their delivery schedule. He said that AUKUS Pillar One needs to be examined in detail and if it looks like the schedule is slipping, Australia should consider alternatives such as the purchase of B-21 long range bombers.

We conclude with some wise words from former foreign minister Gareth Evans and DFAT head Peter Varghese. Both believe Australia could be doing a lot more to strengthen our security without being totally dependent on the US.
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