Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

A lot has been happening on the international scene with Australia's PM Anthony Albanese at the United Nations in New York partly to lobby for one of the rotating seats on the Security Council. It's not clear how much support Australia will receive since we are in the process of converting ourselves into one giant US military base.

Donald Trump has rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and in addition appears to have abandoned his Middle Eastern allies, especially Saudi Arabia. On top of that, the western world seems to be melting down on the issue of whether or not Artificial Intelligence needs to be regulated. AI is already being used extensively by many militaries, including Australia. Various tests demonstrated a decade ago that AI-enabled platforms such as F-16s could defeat ones flown by humans, so why has the uptake been so slow?
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We begin with another Defence procurement farce. Two years ago Defence abandoned a project called JP 9102 for geostationary military communications satellites with Minister Richard Marles explaining that they were too vulnerable and of insufficient capability. In an extraordinary development, Defence has just issued a tender for a satellite very similar to the one they cancelled. The problem is that we have missed at least 3 years acquiring a vital capability - and Australian industry lost more than $300 million because of the ineptitude of Defence.

The Middle East continues to unravel with Donald Trump now seeking to blame Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for high US diesel prices rather than his own stupid unprovoked war with Iran. At least Ukraine is hitting back with massive drone and ballistic missile attacks on Russia. This is demonstrating the future of warfare - mass attacks from these systems. Only now is the full extent of the damage Iran has caused to US facilities using similar weapons in the Persian Gulf region being revealed.

It looks very much like Trump is abandoning US allies in the Middle East - especially Saudi Arabia. The Saudis and the Gulf monarchies believed that the US could be counted on as their security guarantor. The reality is that Trump is throwing them under the bus. Why do Australian politicians and Defence officials think we are any different?
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In a breaking story, there is very credible reporting that the UK has deferred placing an order for future attack submarines - SSN AUKUS - until 2028. This is directly contrary to what we are being told by our government, the RAN and Defence officials. We are in the process of donating $5 billion to the UK industrial base to build submarines that haven't even been ordered.

The situation in the US is no different with the Government Accounting Office - their equivalent of the ANAO - reporting on 27 August that the SSN maintenance and disposal system is a huge mess, years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. Just like the situation in the UK, we are being lied to. We are being told that US SSN maintenance is improving when in fact it is getting worse.

Speaking of getting worse - the situation in the Middle East risks spiralling completely out of control. The Houthis in Yemen now control the critical passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and are threatening Saudi shipping. After the US midterms in November - if they go ahead - President Trump will have a free hand and might decide to escalate the conflict, with unforeseeable consequences.
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As the United States continues to isolate itself, the rest of the world is starting a process of realignment - with the exception of Australia, of course. More information is becoming available about how we are being turned into a giant US military base, without any public discussion. At the same time, several opinion polls are showing that even though the alliance with the US remains vital in the minds of a majority of Australians, the pattern is shifting decisively.
For those under the age of 35 - the nation's future leaders - the trend is clear: increasing trust in China and decreasing confidence that the US would come to Australia's aid during a conflict. Is this shift reflected in government policy? Of course not, as we rush to further ingratiate ourselves with the flailing Trump administration. Meanwhile, China is also transforming but in an economic sense moving from a manufacturer to a creator and innovator - something APDR witnessed last week as a guest at the Asia Pacific Media Forum in Shenzhen.
There could be some powerful lessons for Australia in how small, high technology, AI enabled systems can massively increase self reliance.
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The U.S. is continuing to demonstrate its unreliability as a security partner on an almost daily basis - something our politicians and Defence officials refuse to acknowledge is happening. Latest pieces of idiocy include Donald Trump's decision to try to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America as a deliberate and childish insult to Canada. More disturbingly, a Pentagon report has been leaked saying the US plans to recognise Argentina's claim over the Falkland Islands if the UK doesn't increase Defence spending to 5% of GDP - an outrageous piece of blackmail.

In Australia, the Saturday by-election for the WA seat of Secret Harbour has seen the election of a One Nation candidate with a massive 18% swing against Labor. Normally, State by-elections aren't hugely consequential for Federal governments - but this one might have national security implications. Just five days before the vote the Federal government announced a massive $12 billion investment (out of a total of $25 billion) in the nearby Henderson maritime precinct. Rather than impress voters, this huge infrastructure spend might have had the opposite effect.

Also, Defence Minister Richard Marles has left for yet another visit to the US and UK spruiking complete nonsense about the strength of the relationship with Washington. He is unable to see what everyone else can - and that is the US is unravelling further almost every day.
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