Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

We start where we left off with some words about conventionally powered submarines. Here we have been told that only nuclear powered submarines can survive in a modern war - yet Canada, Germany and Norway are ordering a total of 24 advanced, stealthy non-nuclear submarines, which raises the question: are they suicidal idiots, or have Australians been misled? Clearly Australians have been misled.
Then we unpack a few myths about submarines - they are a powerful deterrent but they do not deserve some sort of magical reputation. In the Australian context they have a very patchy record - we had none at all between 1914 and 1967 and somehow managed to survive. Except for 5 days in April 1914 Australian submarines have never fired a torpedo in anger. They have seen far less actual combat than almost every other part of the ADF, yet they have managed to fool politicians by a bit of showmanship.
Finally some words on industry policy and how the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) is starting to show some encouraging results. Let's continue to develop those skills and look at producing an air defence missile rather than continuing to rely on the U.S.
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The mess in the Middle East continues with the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, with unpredictable consequences. Australia is an indirect participant through the continuing deployment of a RAAF Wedgetail Early Warning and Control aircraft to the UAE. We are told this is being used for defensive missions - but the only problem with that as we have no control over what the countries receiving it - including presumably Israel - do with the information.

Closer to home, a Chinese submarine launched ICBM that came down in the South Pacific has caused a stir, and indeed it is an unwelcome development. However, it was a routine test and when you fire these things they have to come down somewhere. The new Chinese missile - the JL-3 - has a range in excess of 10,000km, meaning all of Australia is in range of it.

Should we panic?

Not yet, but we need to be aware of it and it highlights our lack of preparedness for missile defence, for which we can squarely blame the 2023 Defence Strategic Review.

Finally, some words about Canada's decision to acquire 12 convention diesel electric submarines, which comes with massive economic benefits. Total German investment over the life of the program will be well over $100 billion. Compare this with the lunacy of Australia's approach to AUKUS Pillar One where we are giving away billions rather than receiving them. Why are we doing this? Because RAN submariners have bluffed our politicians and we will explain how.
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The US has celebrated Independence Day with President Trump giving a hugely bombastic and historically inaccurate speech saying that he leads the greatest country ever and the American military will kick sand in the face of anyone it wants. What an ally. Then we look at an important speech given by Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy on 2 July. It was meant to be about Defence reform but he included a reference to Prime Minister Robert Menzies being a Nazi appeaser.

This received a predictable reaction and it's unclear what the Minister hopes to gain by trying to turn Defence into a party political contest. At least he appears sincere about wanting to improve Defence - but for that to work the attitudes of people in the system have to change, along with some structural reform. He says that Defence has cumulatively wasted $29 billion - which is an extraordinary amount for which no one has been held to account.

On AUKUS the government has wheeled out Senator Raff Ciccone to defend the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines saying they are necessary because Australia is surrounded by water. This ridiculous argument gets repeated over and over. Of course Australia is surrounded by water - any idiot knows that. No one is saying we don't need a Navy - what we question are the security benefits from this vastly expensive, risky undertaking and the government has no answers.
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Uncertainty continues in the Middle East with no one in the Trump administration having a clue about what they are doing; the government of Israel is out of control - and Iranian hardliners are in charge of their country. It is possible that Donald Trump is losing interest because the world economy hasn't yet collapsed. All the Australians who cheered on the US might wish to reflect on the consequences.

Then we look at some surveys showing that trust in the US as an ally has plummeted. The same pattern is true in Australia, but our politicians seem completely immune. Next, a major study of increased defence spending that shows Australia way down the list with no meaningful increase despite all the rhetoric from the government. Finally, some worrying information about the F-35 program - as if Australia is not already too dependent on US hardware.
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Chaos continues in the Middle East with the status of peace talks between the US and Iran fluctuating wildly in response to continuing threats from President Donald Trump. The critical Strait of Hormuz seemingly remains both open and closed. The deal that the US appears to have agreed to allows Iran to retain its enriched Uranium, receive massive reparations payments and continue its ballistic missile program. Since none of the originally stated war aims have been met, will the Australian government call on the US to resume bombing since it was such a strong supporter of the war in the first place?

There is some good news - Australia is donating $100 million to the fund that allows Ukraine to purchase more weapons. That conflict appears to be reaching a decisive stage with Ukraine now able to conduct drone strikes deep inside Russia even hitting a huge refinery on the outskirts of Moscow, probably the most heavily defended city on earth. One of the drones appears to be a larger version of one called the Aerosonde, which Australia had developed more than 25 years ago. Yes, we could have been a world leader in the use of small, swarming long range autonomous drones - but of course that was ignored by Defence who could not see the benefits of the technology.
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