In this episode, Mariana speaks with Ioan Grillo, a journalist and prolific author specializing in organized crime and drug trafficking. They discuss how and why security cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico has increased to historic levels—fueled by the threats and demands imposed by President Trump, the impact U.S.-Mexican cooperation could actually have (and is starting to have) on the ground, the power and control organized crime exerts in large parts of the Mexican territory, and the size of the U.S. drug market which fuels this vicious circle. They also speak about the internal cartel wars, benefits that the designation of cartels as terror organizations could bring, the complications of going after the money, and how the use of military grade weaponry is changing the realities of this war.
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47:27
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47:27
Breaking All the Rules
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Juan Carlos Baker, former USMCA negotiator and Director General for North America at the Ministry of the Economy, about the impact tariffs have had on Mexico and how they have served President’s Trump goal of curbing the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. They also discuss why 83% of Mexican exports are currently being exempted from tariffs, the consequences of the U.S. signing agreements with Japan, Europe, South Korea before its largest trading partner, and the unintended (or intended) consequences for North American automobile manufacturers who are still subject to 25% tariffs. They also offer a factual description behind Chinese exports and investments in Mexico and on how Mexico has been in breach of USMCA.
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44:27
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44:27
Benefiting Cartels by Law
In this episode, Mariana speaks with former Supreme Court Minister, Jose Ramon Cosío about the implications of the judicial constitutional reform pushed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and passed by Mexico’s Congress. The reform effectively kills the independence of all local, state, and federal judges as they now must go through elections like any other local, state, or federal politician. Under the new laws, approximately 2,000 judges have been fired and are being replaced by those recently elected out of a pool of approximately 7,700 candidates. Mariana and Jose also discuss the likelihood of the new laws benefiting organized crime organizations, foreign governments, or specific interest groups—or any other group with enough resources to support specific candidates. They speak about how these new laws are also a reversal to the rule of law and how the lack of certainty will hurt Mexico’s attractiveness as an investment destination, both national and international.
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27:02
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27:02
More Carrots and Less Sticks
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Dr. Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at CSIS, about China’s increased presence in Latin America, transforming itself from a distant economic partner into a central player in Latin America’s trade, infrastructure, and key strategic technology sectors.
They also discuss how the new Trump Administration appears to be abandoning a policy of strategic neglect and is turning its attention towards the region. In addition, they discuss how Latin American countries don’t want to pick between the two biggest world economies and how the US can solve this dilemma by offering private-public partnerships in key strategic sectors.
Lastly, they analyze how various Latin countries are following the US in raising tariffs to protect their own industries from Chinese overcapacity, and why Mexico must live up to its commitment and start tracking Chinese investment in the country, particularly in sensitive areas to maintain the trust of the Trump Administration.
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35:55
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35:55
What Mexico Has to Offer
In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alan Bersin, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California and US Border Czar under President Obama and Luis Rubio, a leading Mexican political analyst, Chairman of the think tank Mexico Evalua. They discuss the impact of President Trump’s migration policies at the border and on the Mexican side, analyze the potential benefits of designating Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, and discuss the need to increase security cooperation between the two countries. They also speak about the importance for the Mexican government to take a proactive approach in the issues of migration, security, and trade when negotiating with the United States and break down the many challenges that the Sheinbaum Administration is facing—externally and internally—to create the conditions for the country to grow.
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