Curtin’s Cast

NZ in Revolt: Leadership Chaos, Fragmentation and the Election Ahead

Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by Neale Jones, Managing Director of Capital and former chief of staff to Jacinda Ardern, to unpack the turmoil reshaping New Zealand politics ahead of the 7 November election.

With Christopher Luxon weakened by another leadership challenge, Labour and National struggling to command much more than 30 per cent of the vote, smaller parties surging and economic discontent biting, is New Zealand entering a new era of political fragmentation? We discuss Luxon’s leadership, Chris Hipkins and Labour’s path back to government, Winston Peters and David Seymour, the strains of MMP coalition politics, the rise of Opportunity — and what New Zealand tells us about the wider global age of political disruption.

Freddie Hayward on America’s ‘Summer of Socialism’ and 9/11, 25 Years On

Something unusual is stirring inside America’s Democratic Party.

Across the northern summer, young progressive and democratic-socialist candidates have been knocking over establishment Democrats — raising the possibility that the American left is finally experiencing its own Tea Party or MAGA-style insurgency.

Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined from Washington by Freddie Hayward, US Correspondent for the New Statesman, to discuss what he has called “America’s summer of socialism”.

How socialist are these insurgents really? Are Medicare for all, stronger unions, affordable housing and higher taxes on billionaires revolutionary ideas — or simply conventional social democracy made radical by America’s unusually right-shifted political culture?

They discuss the legacy of Bernie Sanders, Zohran Mamdani and the DSA; Abdul El-Sayed’s insurgent Senate campaign; affordability and economic insecurity; organised labour and the possibility of a new alliance between unions and the socialist left; whether progressives have moved beyond “woke 1.0”; the political impact of Gaza; and why anti-establishment movements have generally proved more successful on the right than the left across Western democracies.

They also compare developments in the United States with Britain and Australia, where Labor’s relationship with organised labour and the Greens’ electoral experience point to very different paths for left-wing insurgent politics.

Finally, with America approaching the 25th anniversary of September 11, Freddie reflects on how the attacks are remembered a quarter-century later — and whether 9/11 still represents a genuinely shared American national memory.

They’re the generation politics forgot — and they may now be among the angriest in Australia.

Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras go deep on the latest RedBridge/AFR generational polling, which has One Nation at an extraordinary 35 per cent among Gen X, Labor on 28 and the Coalition languishing at 19. Even more strikingly, Gen X voters split almost evenly between Anthony Albanese and Pauline Hanson for preferred prime minister, while Angus Taylor trails far behind.

Why is a generation raised through recession, restructuring, globalisation, deindustrialisation, the housing boom, the GFC and Covid turning away from the political establishment? Kos explores the Gen X “sandwich”: mortgages still to pay, adult children who cannot afford to leave home, ageing parents needing care and retirement no longer looking quite as secure as promised.

Nick and Kos ask whether the revolt is driven by economics, disappointed expectations or a potent mix of material insecurity and cultural unease — and why Gen X appears willing to trust Labor on some services while turning overwhelmingly to One Nation on immigration.

They also examine the Victorian numbers and what they mean for Ben Carroll’s Labor government, the Coalition and One Nation ahead of November.

Is Gen X moving right — or has the generation that did what it was told simply become politically homeless?

Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras go deep on the two latest RedBridge/AFR polls and what they reveal about the extraordinary reshaping of Australian politics: One Nation’s surge, the Coalition’s weakness, Labor’s low primary vote and whether voters are moving towards a durable three-bloc system or simply renting their votes in protest.

They also unpack Melongate and what the episode says about political outrage, media consumption and where Australians are actually getting their news.

Then it’s Victoria. With Ben Carroll attempting to reset Labor around working people, cost of living and services, can he turn around the government’s fortunes before November? Is Jess Wilson becoming a credible change agent? And can One Nation really sustain a 20-plus primary vote when voters have to choose an actual government?

This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth is joined by award-winning historian Ross McMullin, author of the definitive history of the Australian Labor Party, The Light on the Hill.

Thirty-five years after its original publication, McMullin has returned to his landmark work, updating Labor’s extraordinary story through Keating, Rudd, Gillard and the leadership wars to Anthony Albanese’s historic 2025 victory.

What has changed about Labor — and what has endured across 135 years? Where do Keating and Albanese sit in the Labor pantheon? What was the party’s greatest mistake? And who are the underrated, overrated and forgotten characters of Labor history?

A fascinating long-form conversation about Labor, history, leadership and the craft of writing political history.