Curtin’s Cast

A seismic election result in South Australia — but was it a Labor landslide, or a structural collapse of the Liberals? Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack:

The Liberals finishing third and fourth across large parts of the state

One Nation’s 22% surge and what it really means

The critical importance of SA Premier Peter Malinauskas

Why this could be a warning shot for Victoria 2026

This is a deep dive into fragmentation, realignment, and the future of the two party system. Check out episode 49 wherever you get your podcasts.

This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras break down the most striking polling shift in a generation — and what it means for Australian politics.

 

Victoria is no longer a conventional contest. Both major parties are struggling to reach 30%. One Nation is now polling in the mid-20s. The next Victorian election won’t be one election at all. It’ll be eighty-eight by-elections happening simultaneously across the state.

 

In this episode we explore:

 

📊 RedBridge/Accent Victorian state election polling

👥 Generational and class realignment playing out in real time

🗳️ Check in on South Australia ahead of March 21

🌍 Whether Middle East conflict influences domestic voting behaviour

 

This is a deep dive into the end of the old electoral map — and what replaces it.

This week co-hosts Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by Dr Kylie Gilbert-Moore — Middle East scholar, columnist and former political prisoner in Iran. After spending 804 days jailed in Tehran’s Evin Prison, Kylie offers a rare perspective on how the Iranian regime works and how ordinary Iranians see the world. In this episode we unpack:

• Iran’s widening war in the Middle East
• The death of Ali Khamenei and rise of his son
• Whether authoritarian regimes are stronger or more fragile during war
• What Iranians actually think about the conflict
• How the region might change if Iran’s regime falls

🎧 Listen now via Apple, Spotify or YouTube

This week Curtin's Cast is joined in the studio by Peter Khalil — Labor member for the federal seat of Wills in Melbourne, Assistant Minister for Defence, former Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee, ex-national security adviser to Kevin Rudd, and previously the government’s former Special Envoy for Social Cohesion. From public housing in Melbourne’s north to junior tennis glory, from working as an executive with SBS to the frontline of Australia’s national security debate — Peter’s story is as global as it is grounded. And Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras go deep with Peter, exploring:

🎾 Growing up in Melbourne’s north to immigrant parents — and what a good working-class boy was doing playing tennis
✝️ Who are the Egyptian Copts? Peter gives us a history lesson — one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, tracing their lineage back to the early Church, shaped by centuries of survival, faith and minority resilience in the Middle East
🧭 Why Peter chose the brutal occupation of parliamentary politics over a a successful and comfortable executive career
🏘️ On the ground in Wills — what voters are actually saying at the doors
🤝 Social cohesion beyond the slogan — what happens when trust frays?
⚠️ Extremism — left and right — protest, grievance, and social media accelerant
🌏 Geo-political volatility — what does middle-power strategy look like now?

All killer, no filler. Catch Episode 46 wherever you get your podcasts.

This week it’s a one-on-one Kos vs Nick deep dive. No guests. No niceties. Just a hard look at the polling — and some of the rubbish floating around. We unpack:

📊 The latest federal and state polls — what’s real and what’s noise
🔵 The new Liberal leadership — and why it’s not generational renewal
🗳️ The same free-market fundamentalism dressed up with culture-war garnish
📰 The same campaign/media tactics including obligatory News Corp sit-down
🏙️ A leader who doesn’t hold an urban metropolitan seat
💥 And the deeper truth: the problem isn’t just the leader — it’s the party

We also dig into:

📍 Victorian and South Australian polling
🎤 The Mally campaign launch: One Nation is the real threat
⚠️ How One Nation can eat into Labor’s base especially in Victoria

Then:

🏗️ Why issues like the CFMEU saga are viewed by voters as intra-elite squabbles
🧍‍♂️🧍‍♀️ The widening gender divide and growing generational fracture — Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z — and how each tells a different political story

If you want to know where Australian politics is actually heading — beyond the hot takes — this is the episode for you!