Curtin’s Cast

Australia isn’t experiencing one populist surge, but two. In this episode of Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack new RedBridge and Accent Research polling revealing a striking political reality: under the same economic pressures, different generations are breaking in completely different directions.

Among financially stressed Gen X voters, One Nation is surging. Among Gen Z voters under that same pressure, the Greens are rising just as sharply. Same system. Same frustration. Completely different political outcomes.

This isn’t just volatility — it’s something deeper. The unravelling of the class-based political system that has defined Australia for more than a century.

But here’s the paradox: as the system fragments, Labor remains dominant. Why? Drawing on Nick’s ‘Trump Bump 2.0’ thesis, the episode explores how voters are shifting from blaming governments to asking a different question — who looks like the “adult in the room” in an age of global instability. Nick and Kos break down:

Why Australia now has two competing populisms

The generational divide reshaping politics

Why One Nation is insurgent but not a governing force

The Coalition’s accelerating collapse

How Labor is holding on amid fragmentation

Is class politics is being replaced by generation and education

This is a conversation about a political system coming apart — and what might replace it.

Has World War 3 already begun — just without a declaration?

This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by the excellent Misha Zelinsky — Fulbright Scholar, economist, lawyer, and national security expert — to unpack a confronting idea: We may already be living through the early stages of the third great global conflict of modern times.

From Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine to chaos in the Middle East and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, Misha argues we are witnessing an unevenly distributed, undeclared world war — driven by a loose but dangerous alignment of authoritarian powers.

On episode 51 we cover:

Why historical analogies (1930s, WWI, Cold War) only go so far

Why defence experts now see a 20–30% chance of global conflict this decade

The rise of a “bad guys club”: Russia, China, Iran, North Korea

How Western democratic deterrence failed — slowly, then all at once

How modern warfare contains multiple overlapping theatres — military, economic, cyber — along with the familiar use of proxies

Whether democracies are strong enough — including internally — to prevail

This is a serious, sobering conversation about power, geopolitics, and whether the world has already crossed a threshold we don’t yet recognise.

This week, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by arguably Australia’s finest historian and public intellectual, Professor Frank Bongiorno, for our landmark 50th episode — and a big question at the heart of Australian politics:

Is Bob Hawke really the “gold standard”… or a myth we can’t escape?

Our conversation is anchored in the new book Gold Standard? Remembering the Hawke Government, edited by Frank, Carolyn Holbrook and Joshua Black — a major reassessment of Hawke’s record and reputation.

We unpack:

▪️ Why Hawke still dominates how we judge governments
▪️ What actually made the Hawke model work
▪️ Why reform feels harder today
▪️ Whether Labor is misreading its own history

What matters now is what Albanese Labor can realistically learn from Hawke — and what his record tells students of Australian politics about the limits and possibilities of reform today.

A seismic election result in South Australia — but was it a Labor landslide, or a structural collapse of the Liberals? Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack:

The Liberals finishing third and fourth across large parts of the state

One Nation’s 22% surge and what it really means

The critical importance of SA Premier Peter Malinauskas

Why this could be a warning shot for Victoria 2026

This is a deep dive into fragmentation, realignment, and the future of the two party system. Check out episode 49 wherever you get your podcasts.

This week on Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras break down the most striking polling shift in a generation — and what it means for Australian politics.

 

Victoria is no longer a conventional contest. Both major parties are struggling to reach 30%. One Nation is now polling in the mid-20s. The next Victorian election won’t be one election at all. It’ll be eighty-eight by-elections happening simultaneously across the state.

 

In this episode we explore:

 

📊 RedBridge/Accent Victorian state election polling

👥 Generational and class realignment playing out in real time

🗳️ Check in on South Australia ahead of March 21

🌍 Whether Middle East conflict influences domestic voting behaviour

 

This is a deep dive into the end of the old electoral map — and what replaces it.