Curtin’s Cast

With Victorians heading to the polls on 28 November, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras unpack an extraordinary election campaign.

The Coalition leads Labor 56–44 on two-party preferred, yet One Nation is polling level with Labor on 24%, and seat projections suggest the Coalition could still struggle to secure a majority.

After 12 years in office, where did it all go wrong for Victorian Labor? Can new leadership turn things around? Who is voting One Nation? And why might the traditional electoral pendulum no longer tell us who will govern Victoria?

Plus, the housing debate, leadership and campaign cut-through, and the implications of One Nation's surge for federal politics.

A must-listen guide to Victoria's most unpredictable election in years.

🎧 Listen now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts.

Britain's Labour Party won a landslide in 2024. So why did it struggle so badly and recently replace Keir Starmer with Andy Burnham? And is Australia's Labor Party heading for the same political trap?

This week, Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras are joined by Jack Peacock, Associate Director at leading UK polling firm Focaldata and contributor to Future of the Left, to tackle one of the biggest questions in politics: how can the centre-left build a winning coalition again?

🔥 📊 Why did 40% of British voters switch parties between 2019 and 2024?

⚔️ Is chasing progressive voters at the expense of the working class a recipe for defeat?

🇦🇺 What can Australian Labor learn as One Nation surges?

Jack's provocative argument: stop doing politics backwards. Start with principles, not polling numbers and "blocs".

A fascinating transcontinental conversation about class, identity, patriotism, economic security and the future of social democracy.

🎧 Curtin's Cast Episode 76 — out now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you listen.

In his just released, best-selling memoir A Grateful Son, Josh Frydenberg reflects on family, Jewish life and a career at the centre of Australian politics. On episode 75 of Curtin’s Cast, Nick Dyrenfurth speaks with the former Treasurer about the influences that shaped him, the rise of antisemitism since 7 October, and whether Jewish Australians can feel secure and at home in this country.

They discuss the state of Australia, Frydenberg’s proudest achievement and political regrets, and the existential challenge facing the Liberal Party as One Nation gains ground. Has Frydenberg changed, as political journalist Paul Kelly argues? And is he the person to help the Liberals win back voters?

Nick puts the question of a political return directly to him — and ends with a mischievous challenge involving a copy of the Torah: has Josh made up his mind to run for Kooyong?

Has political hate become a business model? And is Australia importing the toxic political culture of the United States?

In a special one-on-one edition of Curtin’s Cast, John Curtin Research Centre head honcho Nick Dyrenfurth and RedBridge director Kos Samaras confront the disturbing deterioration of Australian political debate.

The shocking attack on independent MP Helen Haines, whose motive remains under investigation, and Pauline Hanson's One Nation cartoon cruelly mocking Senator Jacqui Lambie's intimate medical condition raise confronting questions about political violence, personal abuse and toxification of public debate.

From Australia's own history of political violence to assassinations overseas, Nick and Kos examine the growing personal risks facing politicians — especially female MPs – and whether Australia's democratic traditions are under threat.

They also explore the monetisation of hate: social media algorithms that reward anger, influencers who turn outrage into income, and politicians who discover that cruelty generates clicks. Do ordinary voters really want this kind of politics?

Plus, a quick Victorian election check-in: abortion politics, Labor's forgotten free dental promise, the latest polling and Kos's updated prediction for November 28.

Curtin's Cast is brought to you by the John Curtin Research Centre, proudly supported by RedBridge.

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Three Shocks: The Australia Politics Hasn’t Caught Up With

One of Australia's finest political journalists and authors, "demography whisperer" George Megalogenis, joins Nick Dyrenfurth and Kos Samaras to discuss the three forces reshaping Australia: migration, the changing workforce and a more uncertain international order. In Three Shocks: Who We Are Becoming in the 21st Century, George argues that Labor adapted more successfully to these changes while the Coalition remained attached to assumptions inherited from the Howard era. The conversation explores what these shifts mean for Australian identity, the changing electoral map and the future of both major parties.

📘 Buy George’s book: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/three-shocks-9780143789994