A podcast by venture capital firm Lux Capital on the opportunities and risks of science, technology, finance and the human condition. Hosted by Danny Crichton f...
Luck rules our lives, so why don’t we teach more about it?
Cruel, petty and occasionally magnanimous, fates rule our lives, determining everything from our careers and romances to our financial success. Despite a burgeoning academic literature studying luck and the occasional theoretical probabilist complaining about Bayesian statistics, we haven’t brought the chance of chaotic complex systems into the classroom, and that’s particularly true in political science and international relations. That should change, and play-based learning offer new forms of education for future generations.Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner is Nicholas Rush Smith, director of the Master’s Program in International Affairs at The City College of New York and its Graduate Center. His students graduate into plum assignments across international organizations like the United Nations, and he has been increasingly utilizing simulations and experiential learning to transform how future international civil servants learn their craft.We talk about Nick’s recent experience playing “Powering Up,” our Riskgaming scenario focused on China’s electric vehicle market. Then we talk about the power of play, how dopamine affects the learning cycle, why losing is the best education for winning, David Graeber’s ideas around the balance between rules and play, and finally, how play-based learning can teach principles used in even the most bureaucratic institutions like the United Nations and the U.S. Army.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by George Ko
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36:02
How Russia is bringing the cost of global sabotage to zero
When Russia launched its war on Ukraine in early 2022, it became the first land battle on European soil since World War II. Warfare has changed dramatically since then — from first-person view drones to AI-mediated strategic communications, as well as intelligence gathering and operations — and yet, critical continuities remain between Russia’s present and past strategies and tactics.To learn more, Riskgaming host Danny Crichton interviewed Daniela Richterova, who is Senior Lecturer in Intelligence Studies at the Department of War Studies, King's College London. She has been researching the history and contemporary practices of Russia’s overseas intelligence missions and recently co-authored a paper on how Russia is using a gig-economy model to hire agent-saboteurs in the field, sometimes for as little as a few hundred dollars. This new operational model has allowed Russia to dramatically scale up its attacks on infrastructure and other high-priority targets at minimal cost despite overseas sanctions.Daniela discusses the continuities in doctrine between the KGB and today’s Russian FSB, how agent training has evolved over the decades, why the gig economy has been so effective for Russia, what Russia seeks to target and why, and finally, the risk calculus and cultural differences between Russian political and espionage leaders and those of other nations.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by George Ko
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38:34
Can you (or DOGE) product manage the government?
There’s a growing movement to apply the best practices of technology to the U.S. government. Whether it’s Elon Musk and DOGE (the so-called Department of Government Efficiency) or the myriad of chief technology and data officers across all levels of government, the hope is that technology can enhance productivity and minimize errors, offering a better experience with government for all Americans.
Few people have the wealth of experience on this front than our guest today, Christine Keung. She has a tech industry background from Dropbox and her current role as a partner at J2 Ventures, but also a lengthy tenure across party lines, from working in China with Ambassador Max Baucus, to becoming the Chief Data Officer of San Jose, California, to helping launch the Paycheck Protection Program at the Small Business Administration.
Alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming Director of Programming Laurence Pevsner, we talk about her recent experience playing Powering Up — our Riskgaming scenario on the Chinese electric vehicle market — her experiences in government and the challenges of modernization, and then finally, we turn to DeepSeek and the U.S.-China competition that has splashed across the front pages the past week.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
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41:27
The on-going collapse of the global commons
It’s been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out internet cables in international waters. Outer space is being militarized by Russia and others, threatening the demilitarized posture adopted by the Outer Space Treaty. Chinese hackers are using cyber weapons to infiltrate the U.S. Treasury through the Salt Typhoon hacks, while Antarctica is being explored by multiple militaries in contravention of the peace proposed in the the Antarctic Treaty. Then there’s the decline of the information commons, where paywalls increasingly move critical news and data out of reach of citizens.
In short, the global commons is losing primacy. Friend of the podcast Scott Bade highlighted this theme for geopolitical strategy firm Eurasia Group’s annual Top Risks report, and we decided to follow up with our own Riskgaming conversation. So Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner teamed up to talk through the global commons and what’s endangering it.
We discuss the privatization and securitization of the commons, how post-World War II institutions are buckling under new pressures from rising powers, why technology is both helping and hurting, and finally, what America can do as a nation to stay open under threat.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
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26:58
Which companies will suffer with globalization’s reversal?
The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially die on Monday as Trump re-takes the presidency with a radically different economic program. Free trade is out and tariffs are in; globalization is dead and national sovereignty is the rule of the day. Such a change has massive implications for companies all around the world, many of whom have designed their corporate strategies for a global world. Who is affected, particularly when it comes to U.S.-China relations in the years ahead?
That’s where Isaac Stone Fish comes in. He’s the CEO and founder of Strategy Risks, a data and research company that helps companies and regulators understand and reduce alternative forms of risk. He’s particularly noted for his China expertise, and his firm publishes the SR250 ranking, which highlights the largest American companies with the deepest ties with China, encompassing everything from financing and supply-chain interlinkages to public communications.
Fish joins host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner to talk about Trump’s imminent arrival, why Ford is the most China-entwined company in the U.S., how China overtook the U.S. in electric vehicles, why American defense contractors are surprisingly engaged in China trade, why we might already be at war with China, how CEOs are managing these new strategic risks and finally, what the biotech and social media industries must do going forward in a more fractured world.
Produced by Chris Gates
Music by George Ko
A podcast by venture capital firm Lux Capital on the opportunities and risks of science, technology, finance and the human condition. Hosted by Danny Crichton from our New York City studios.
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