Star Spangled Gamblers

Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons.  Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia.  Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri 1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller 1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets 2:47: Intro ends 4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins 5:12: Kylasa (@aenews) side bet with Mehndiratta (@tenad0me)  5:51: Odds on nuclear war 6:01: Anti-nuclear norms 6:55: Why India and Pakistan haven't used nukes 7:34: Terrorism vs. nukes 8:46: India's no first use doctrine   10:05: Variance 10:18: Anthropic effects 10:52: Nuclear taboos 10:58: Why Pakistan won't transfer nukes 11:36: Polymarket market on nuclear detonation 11:45: Segment ends 12:00: Interview with Miller begins 12:17: Miller's background 12:46: Rumsfeld 14:27: Chougule 14:44: Washingtonian profile of Chougule 15:06: Intralot 15:26: Lotteries offering sports betting 15:58: Prediction markets 16:46: Business of prediction markets 17:02: Amazon 18:36: How Miller got into lottery business 19:43: Lottery expansion into sports betting 20:46: Women 21:19: Lottery regulation 21:44: How lotteries gained acceptance 24:10: Demographic of prediction market users 25:02: Forecasting as an ambassador   26:07: Black swan events 26:20: History 26:30: Intelligence before Russian invasion of Ukraine 28:59: Data in diplomacy 29:47: Iraq War 31:23: AI 32:04: Prediction markets for diplomacy 37:09: Using prediction markets to anticipate bad events 37:36: Prediction markets for resource allocation decisions 37:52: Medical research 39:43: Segment ends 39:57: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetups   Trade on markets related to nuclear weapons and war at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.     Join us for the final DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup on Wednesday, December 17 from 6-9pm at the Flying Mexican on Capitol Hill, close to the Eastern Market metro station (blue/orange lines), NOT our usual Rocklands BBQ location in Arlington. Be sure to show up on the correct side of the river this month!     Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Thanks to our sponsor, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed!   Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.   This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork   Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv  

Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50: Indian hardliners 20:51: Pakistan's hand 25:18: China 26:38: Saudi Arabia 27:50: Munir 28:14: Pakistani military 29:06: India's point of view 30:01: Hardline Indian policy 32:50: Timing of an Indian strike 35:21: Market rules on "strike" 36:33: No Indian ground forces 37:06: Indian strike in 2027 Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.  Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299 The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company. This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time.  A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true  Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv  

Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia 5:16: Virginia politics 7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School 10:23: William and Mary University 12:45: Changes in Virginia 17:21: Upcoming elections 20:38: Governor's race 23:00: Governor election margin of victory 25:11: Earle-Sears 26:08: Spanberger 27:00: Trans issue  29:30: Attorney General race 29:59: Importance of State Attorneys General 32:47: Jones scandal 39:03: DOGE 42:27: October turns 45:40: Prediction markets Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. Follow us on Twitter @ssgamblers. Bet on Virginia's elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network—Join the community of prediction market traders, rationalists, effective altruists, sports bettors, and other forecasters coming together to improve humanity's ability to predict the future. https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51: Left-wing primary 15:47: Kast 19:47: Kast's electability 20:16: Kast's professional bio 21:47: Kast's political skill 22:20: Jara 23:43: Latin American left 27:17: Jara's view on mining 29:57: Comparisons to other Latin American leftists 31:48: Matthei 32:39: Parisi 33:18: Kaiser 34:28: Kaiser polling 35:00: Latin American libertarians and immigration 36:02: First round winner 38:47: Polling 39:45: Bezek's recommended combo play 40:01: Overall winner 42:32: Why Polymarket underpricing Kast 43:41: Potential surprises 44:04: Financial markets 44:45: Tariffs 48:44: Venezuela invasion 50:15: Equity plays 51:35: ETFs 52:01: Banco de Chile 52:21: Chilean peso 52:34: How to follow election 53:16: How to interpret polls 54:31: Implications for other Latin American candidates 54:57: Follow Bezek 55:46: Interview ends 56:00: Upcoming meetups Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Social Twitter/X: @ssgamblers YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029 Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 Bet on Latin American politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network Join the community of prediction market traders, rationalists, effective altruists, sports bettors, and other forecasters coming together to improve humanity's ability to predict the future. Upcoming meetups: DC: Thu, Sep 18th at 6pm. Details and RSVP here. Boston: Mon, Sep 22nd at 6pm. Details and RSVP here. https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8

Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09: Liquidity 10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi 11:08: Zubkoff tweet 12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff 12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position 13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff 14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour 16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts 18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi 19:46: Market demand for sports betting 20:24: The need to attract sports bettors  21:22: Regulatory environment 22:53: Retail traders 24:01: Gaming industry 29:48: Lawsuits 29:58: Nevada 30:37: New Jersey 31:15: Maryland 31:23: Illinois 31:46: Third Circuit 32:11: Timing 32:24 : Pritchard segment ends 32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins 32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans 32:54: Saira Rao 33:22: White women 35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking 36:06: Childhood trauma 36:57: Outsider psychology 37:34: Political biographies 38:20: UVA rape accusation 40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media 42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends 42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com  Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv