Bulwark Takes

Ken Paxton is caught on tape blaming Donald Trump for hurting his Senate campaign, telling a small group of donors that Trump’s Texas convention actually hurt his numbers. The New York Times first reported on the leaked recording, which came from a small Paxton fundraiser where an attendee recorded the conversation. JVL and Andrew Egger break down Paxton’s donor problems, his reliance on Trump’s financial support, and what the recording reveals about his struggling campaign.
They also discuss Paxton’s political baggage, the Texas Senate race against James Talarico, and Angela Paxton’s unusual argument that Republicans should keep the seat “in the family” despite their ongoing divorce.
Plus, why the Paxton campaign’s struggles could reveal deeper problems for Texas Republicans and the MAGA movement.

Ben Parker and Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) give their takes on Pete Hegseth’s reported plan to cut 20% of the military’s general and flag officers, and what that could mean for military leadership, congressional oversight, and civilian-military relations. They also discuss Hegseth’s push to remake Department of Defense schools, including curriculum changes and book bans, as well as growing concerns about the Pentagon’s handling of military casualty reporting.
Plus, U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue’s odd comments that Trump reportedly offered to sell U.S. weapons to China and the end of the U.S. military mission in Iraq after more than two decades.

Sam Stein and Andrew Egger give their takes on Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt’s disastrous attempt to catch former special counsel Jack Smith in a perjury trap during a Senate Judiciary hearing. Schmitt thought he had a smoking gun showing Smith was in Atlanta for a Hawks game on the same day as a controversy involving Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. But there was one problem: Smith wasn’t at the Hawks game. The text messages Schmitt’s team found were apparently referring to the Iowa Hawkeyes women's basketball team, who were playing in Maryland that same day.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar quickly pointed out the apparent mix-up, while Schmitt continued to defend his questioning even after accusing Smith of perjury. Sam and Andrew also discuss the poor timing of this faceplant after Axios reported that Eric Schmitt was being floated as a possible running mate for JD Vance in 2028.
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Andrew Egger and Bill Kristol give their takes on Jack Smith’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, where Smith defended his decision to prosecute Donald Trump and said he would make the same decision regardless of whether Trump were a Republican or Democrat. They also discuss Republicans’ focus on the former special counsel, Chuck Grassley’s accusations against Smith, and Bill’s argument that the hearing amounts to a “perjury trap.”
Then, Andrew makes the case for Democrats to keep impeachment on the table if they retake power in 2026, arguing that Trump’s use of government resources for political messaging and other alleged abuses could warrant renewed scrutiny. Bill and Andrew compare the current political environment with Trump’s 2019 impeachment and debate what Democrats should do if they regain control of Congress.
Plus, Bill lays out why he sees a broader 2026 Senate map as potentially competitive, including races in states that have traditionally been difficult terrain for Democrats.
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Michael Weiss and Marc Polymeropoulos are back to give their takes on the latest allegations of corruption and counterintelligence concerns surrounding the Trump administration, including Alina Habba’s star-studded wedding and the appearance of FBI Director Kash Patel alongside a former informant who was suspected of being a double agent.
They also look at U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle and her relationship with a Greek lobbyist, allegations that she pressured Greek officials over energy contracts, and claims that she threatened to help bring down the Greek government. Plus, Michael and Marc discuss the FBI’s leadership turmoil after a top deputy resigned.