One Decision

What role do intelligence services play under a president that does not heed their advice? That’s one of the questions Pulitzer Prize–winning reporter Tim Weiner posits in his most recent book, The Mission, which details how the modern Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has evolved during the era of the global war on terror. Weiner describes the evolution of the missions undertaken by the CIA, which were historically driven by presidential desires to change the world through covert action, and contrasts them with the post-Cold War agency that grapples with trust and reputation in the information era. Weiner also discusses how the delicate interplay between betrayal and trust underwrites intelligence work, the common aim of pursuing secrets that intelligence and journalism share, and why he believes the cumulative effects of partisan purges within intelligence services under President Donald Trump leaves the United States in a dire state of danger.

Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood dive into the news stories in geopolitics shaping the world this week: how a secret CIA task force in Cuba may be laying the groundwork for a more American-friendly government, why the construction of a new giant embassy for China is igniting political NIMBY-ism in London, and what US intelligence says about how stray Russian missiles and drones may be Putin’s way of testing NATO’s resolve.

(03:07) Secret CIA Cuba Task Force

(07:24) New Chinese Embassy in London

(12:31) Will Putin Test NATO’s Resolve?

(14:37) Interview with Tim Weiner

(15:29) Difficulty of Writing About the CIA

(20:07) Human Element of Espionage

(22:56) Evolution of the CIA

(25:57) Sir Richard’s Post-9/11 Intel Recollections

(30:08) Journalists, Intelligence, and Secrecy

(34:58) Intelligence and Policy

(39:59) Modern CIA Missions Under Trump

(48:31) Partisan Purges in US Intel Services

(54:55) Can Institutional Trust Recover?

(58:48) Trump’s Potential Paradoxical Legacy

(01:02:47) One Decision to Watch

(01:03:32) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (international journalist).
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Is the Russian military actually losing ground, or adapting faster than Western allies realize? Fresh off a tour of the Ukrainian front lines, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman delivers a realistic assessment of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kofman explains why Ukraine is in its strongest position since mid-2023, how Russian military commanders reporting false progress to Putin may lead to a mismatch between goals and means in the war, the strategic implications behind Ukraine’s recent command changes and political shifts in defense procurement, and why it’s critical that NATO learns what it can from Ukrainian force exercises to be prepared to face Russia’s next post-war threat.

Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann unpack the latest and most significant news stories in geopolitics: the launch of Sweden’s own civilian intelligence service, whether President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran reflects uncertainty or strategic deception, and the data supporting the skeptical American attitude about AI.

In this episode:

(02:13) Sweden to Launch Its Own MI6

(06:01) Trump Hyperbole and Iran

(09:18) America’s AI Skepticism

(12:26) Interview with Michael Kofman

(13:10) State of the Ukrainian-Russian Frontlines

(15:30) Russian Military Goals vs. Means

(19:43) Russia’s False Picture of Success

(23:17) Evolution of Warfare on the Frontlines

(28:58) Assessment of International Response

(33:18) Patriot Missile Licensed Production Timeline

(37:02) Changes in Ukrainian Defense Leadership

(43:28) Corruption, Procurement, and Funding in Ukraine(

48:58) Russia’s Threat Post-War(54:50) Ukrainian Morale on the Frontlines\(57:18) Defining the Front Line of Fighting

(01:00:21) One Decision to Watch

(01:02:47) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up

Show Notes:

The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-russia-threat-michael-kofman

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).
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AI models in the United States may be ahead of China’s in terms of capability, but China far surpasses America in adoption and use. That’s what former US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo says about the state of the AI race, and why she believes it's critical for the US and its allies to understand one thing: China is not our friend. She spells out how exactly China is creating technological dependencies, particularly in European countries, why it’s still important the West maintains continuous, managed economic competition with China, what social adoption of AI should look like in the US to curb anxieties around job loss, and why she remains optimistic about the promise of AI despite all this.

Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Sabrina Singh analyze the events making the biggest geopolitical headlines: FBI Director Kash Patel’s upcoming trip to Russia, a nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, more changes in defense leadership in Ukraine, and the latest with the war in Iran.

In this episode:

(01:04) Kash Patel to Visit Russia

(04:45) US-Saudi Nuclear Deal

(09:39) Changes to Zelenskyy’s Cabinet

(14:06) State of the Iran War

(18:24) Interview with Gina Raimondo

(19:17) US-China AI Race

(23:00) Europe’s Vulnerability to China’s Influence

(26:16) Managing Economic Competition between US/China

(28:31) Why AI is a Geopolitical Net-Good

(30:27) Social Adoption of AI

(35:31) Regulation for AI

(37:44) One Decision to Watch

(38:58) Takeaways and Wrap Up

Show Notes:

Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (Former Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary)
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Professor Vali Nasr argues that the single objective that's driven Tehran since 1979 has been defending its independence from the US. Author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, Nasr says that logic, more than ideology, explains the current war. He unpacks Iran's shift toward hard-nosed nationalism, what leverage it has left, and whether the country will take a more pragmatic approach to geopolitics.

Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host John Raine talk through the headlines shaping today’s geopolitics: Japan's intelligence overhaul, the fallout from Zelensky's clash with his defense minister, China's new AI cooperation push, and the UK's untested new PM Andy Burnham.

03:16 Japan Builds Spy Agency07:35 Ukraine Defense Shakeup11:14 China Pushes AI Rules14:49 New UK Prime Minister18:24 Guest interview begins23:20 From Islam to Nationalism28:15 War Pragmatism and New Leaders32:27 Proxies and Forward Defense38:21 How the War Ends43:43 Gulf Markets and Hormuz48:12 Buying Peace49:49 Energy Shifts and Long Game55:37 One Decision to Watch56:23 Takeaways and Wrap Up

Show Notes:

Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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In recent months of the war, Ukraine has managed to hold its front lines and bring war to regular Russians via attacks on infrastructure. That’s why Economic Advisor to the President of Ukraine Chrystia Freeland believes Ukraine has flipped the narrative from being the virtuous victim of Russia’s aggression to the necessary ally and shield of Europe. This week, she joins Sir Ben Wallace and co-host Kate McCann to make the case for why Ukraine is winning, and why winning on the economic battlefield is equally important to the country’s future.

Freeland talks about how Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is laying the political groundwork for Ukraine’s economic success, the importance of Ukraine’s alliances, and why Poland’s success story should serve as a model for Ukraine’s post-war future. They also discuss Ukraine’s strong defense industrial base, the importance of rooting out corruption and the remnants of Soviet ideology for bringing in investment to the country, the challenges of attracting people back to Ukraine, and why victory for Ukraine is a victory for liberal democracy.

Plus, In Brief: what Andy Burnham is up against on the UK’s defense front as he ascends to the role of Prime Minister, another battle in the Strait of Hormuz reignites conflict between Iran and the United States, and a leadership shakeup in China’s People’s Liberation Army.

In this episode:

(00:00) Cold Open and Introduction

(02:21) Incoming UK PM Andy Burnham

(04:16) IRGC Proscription Explained

(05:20) Renewed Tensions with Iran

(09:14) China Military Leadership Shakeup

(10:32) Chrystia Freeland On Ukraine

(11:35) Is Ukraine Winning?

(15:38) Ukrainian Sentiment on the State of War

(24:43) Zelenskyy’s Political Strategy

(29:44) Ukrainian Defense Innovation

(33:36) Why Crimea Was A Strategic Blunder for Putin

(37:17) Ukraine’s Future Economic Vision

(42:39) Corruption and Investment in Ukraine

(53:32) Rebuilding Ukraine and Returning Home

(56:28) Why Allyship is Key for Ukrainian Success

(59:48) Reflecting On Politics, Alliances, and the Future of Ukraine

Hosted by Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defense Secretary) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).
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