One Decision

August marked five years since the US withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan after a twenty year stint in the country. But was this ever a winnable war in the first place? Author and war correspondent for The New Yorker war Jon Lee Anderson joins former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host John Raine this week to explain that even a few years into the war there were signs of a Taliban resurgence that foreshadowed things to come. Anderson discusses why it was a strategic failure to not support former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai in nation building, and how that blunder facilitated both the return of opium production and the Taliban comeback. He also talks about what happened to the Northern Alliance, the complexities of Afghan allegiance and loyalties, lessons in counterinsurgency, the importance of winning the hearts and minds of a people, and what diplomatic relations with Afghanistan could look like even under continued Taliban rule.

In this episode:

(00:00) Ceding an Aura of Invincibility

(03:15) Was Afghanistan Ever a Winnable War?

(07:26) Karzai and State Building

(11:12) Opium Production and Taliban

(18:43) Shadow Taliban Government

(27:09) What Happened to the Northern Alliance?

(33:39) Navigating US-Afghani Cultural Differences

(39:14) Afghanistan’s Geography

(42:45) Lessons in Counterinsurgency

(48:26) Legacy of Afghanistan War

(50:09) Persistence of Taliban Government

(51:58) Diplomatic Relations with Taliban

(55:28) One Decision: The West Must Engage Afghanistan

(56:41) Takeaways and Wrap Up

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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How did a Holocaust-denying, hardline former president of Iran become the centerpiece of an Israeli plan to topple the regime in Tehran? Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host John Raine sit down with New York Times investigative journalists Mark Mazzetti and Ronen Bergman to detail the high-stakes intelligence mission that preceded Operation Epic Fury. They explain how Israel’s Mossad groomed former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad into an intelligence asset, and how Mossad director David Barnea Ahmadinejad to the White House in February 2026 as part of a plan for rapid regime change in Iran. They also discuss the plan’s collapse within days of the decapitation strikes, why the plan to use Kurdish forces as a ground proxy was a non-starter, how the political fallout from the war may forever change US-Israel relations, and the electoral implications for both US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this fall.

(00:00) Legacy of the Iran War

(02:30) Origins of Ahmadinejad Plot

(05:10) Planning Iranian Regime Change

(08:08) Was Ahmadinejad a Double Agent?

(12:45) Why Recruit Ahmadinejad?

(15:34) Selling Trump on Regime Change

(25:12) Credibility of Kurdish Option

(33:27) War Planning vs. Reality

(35:32) Legacy of Ahmadinejad Plot

(38:55) Did Israel Manipulate the US?

(41:44) Mood of Iranian People

(43:58) Deal Prospects

(46:18) Maximum Pressure on Iran

(48:05) Impact of Israel’s Coming Elections

(49:03) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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Vladimir Putin promised Russia a "dictatorship of law" when he took office in 2000. He delivered the dictatorship -- but not the law.

This week, Russia expert, human rights lawyer, and founder of Russia's first independent foreign law firm Jamison Firestone joins journalist Rosanna Lockwood and former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove to discuss his new book, Rule of Lies: My Wild Ride Through Chaos, Corruption, and Murder in Putin's Russia. Firestone lived through the upheaval of the early 1990s and worked alongside Sergei Magnitsky, who was murdered after exposing a Russian state built to loot itself. Firestone explains why Russia may now be close to a historical tipping point, how $300 billion in frozen Russian assets could be legally transferred to Ukraine to fund Kyiv;s war effort, and the ways in which Donald Trump has emulated Putin and Yeltsin.

Plus, in Brief: changes coming to Germany's BND, the legacy of former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, Iceland's referendum on restarting EU membership talks, and the latest in the Iran War.

In this episode:

(00:00) Why Ukraine Matters

(02:06) Germany Expands BND Powers

(05:01) Zhu Rongji

(07:52) Iceland EU Vote and NATO Role

(11:46) Iran Deadline and Strait Tensions

(15:11) Meet Jamison Firestone

(16:42) Growing Up Around Gangsters

(26:15) Loving Russia Despite Putin

(30:46) Can Russia Reach a Tipping Point

(34:32) Mobilization Pressure and Next Steps

(36:15) Ukraine Aid and Frozen Funds

(41:17) Legal Case For Seizure

(43:57) Reparations Loan Explained

(50:25) US Politics And Trump Parallels

(54:24) How Putin Could Fall

(57:06) Can Russia Be Democratic

(59:03) Putin Isolation And Ukraine Motive

(01:02:12) Life In London And Safety

(01:05:08) Magnitsky Legacy And Costs

(01:11:33) Drone Swarms And Future War

Show Notes:

Rule of Lies: My Wild Ride Through Chaos, Corruption, and Murder in Putin's Russia | https://www.harpercollins.com/products/rule-of-lies-jamison-r-firestone?variant=44366648180770

Website to learn more about Jamison Firestone’s advocacy: https://makeputinpay.org/

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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What role do intelligence services play under a president that does not heed their advice? That’s one of the questions Pulitzer Prize–winning reporter Tim Weiner posits in his most recent book, The Mission, which details how the modern Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has evolved during the era of the global war on terror. Weiner describes the evolution of the missions undertaken by the CIA, which were historically driven by presidential desires to change the world through covert action, and contrasts them with the post-Cold War agency that grapples with trust and reputation in the information era. Weiner also discusses how the delicate interplay between betrayal and trust underwrites intelligence work, the common aim of pursuing secrets that intelligence and journalism share, and why he believes the cumulative effects of partisan purges within intelligence services under President Donald Trump leaves the United States in a dire state of danger.

Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood dive into the news stories in geopolitics shaping the world this week: how a secret CIA task force in Cuba may be laying the groundwork for a more American-friendly government, why the construction of a new giant embassy for China is igniting political NIMBY-ism in London, and what US intelligence says about how stray Russian missiles and drones may be Putin’s way of testing NATO’s resolve.

(03:07) Secret CIA Cuba Task Force

(07:24) New Chinese Embassy in London

(12:31) Will Putin Test NATO’s Resolve?

(14:37) Interview with Tim Weiner

(15:29) Difficulty of Writing About the CIA

(20:07) Human Element of Espionage

(22:56) Evolution of the CIA

(25:57) Sir Richard’s Post-9/11 Intel Recollections

(30:08) Journalists, Intelligence, and Secrecy

(34:58) Intelligence and Policy

(39:59) Modern CIA Missions Under Trump

(48:31) Partisan Purges in US Intel Services

(54:55) Can Institutional Trust Recover?

(58:48) Trump’s Potential Paradoxical Legacy

(01:02:47) One Decision to Watch

(01:03:32) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (international journalist).
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Is the Russian military actually losing ground, or adapting faster than Western allies realize? Fresh off a tour of the Ukrainian front lines, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman delivers a realistic assessment of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kofman explains why Ukraine is in its strongest position since mid-2023, how Russian military commanders reporting false progress to Putin may lead to a mismatch between goals and means in the war, the strategic implications behind Ukraine’s recent command changes and political shifts in defense procurement, and why it’s critical that NATO learns what it can from Ukrainian force exercises to be prepared to face Russia’s next post-war threat.

Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann unpack the latest and most significant news stories in geopolitics: the launch of Sweden’s own civilian intelligence service, whether President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran reflects uncertainty or strategic deception, and the data supporting the skeptical American attitude about AI.

In this episode:

(02:13) Sweden to Launch Its Own MI6

(06:01) Trump Hyperbole and Iran

(09:18) America’s AI Skepticism

(12:26) Interview with Michael Kofman

(13:10) State of the Ukrainian-Russian Frontlines

(15:30) Russian Military Goals vs. Means

(19:43) Russia’s False Picture of Success

(23:17) Evolution of Warfare on the Frontlines

(28:58) Assessment of International Response

(33:18) Patriot Missile Licensed Production Timeline

(37:02) Changes in Ukrainian Defense Leadership

(43:28) Corruption, Procurement, and Funding in Ukraine(

48:58) Russia’s Threat Post-War(54:50) Ukrainian Morale on the Frontlines\(57:18) Defining the Front Line of Fighting

(01:00:21) One Decision to Watch

(01:02:47) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up

Show Notes:

The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-russia-threat-michael-kofman

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).
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