One Decision

The Iran conflict contains dueling narratives. Iran says it repelled the attack. Israel says it decimated the nuclear program. The US says it brokered peace. So, how do you find out what actually happened? That’s where Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) can provide valuable information to the public. 

Eliot Higgins built Bellingcat from a Leicester living room blog into the world's most influential open source intelligence organization. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with him to find out how OSINT cuts through the war of narratives on Iran, Ukraine, and the fronts nobody's covering. Plus: why AI is making the truth harder to find, not easier, and why Higgins won't set foot in the United States right now.

Show Notes: 


bellingcat.com 


The al-Qaeda offshoot looking to Syria as a blueprint | The Financial Times


Senior State Department official sought internal communications with journalists, European officials, and Trump critics | MIT Technology Review


Why these Irish cartel bosses are still free | Search Party  

In this episode:


03:21 Iran Ceasefire


06:39 Israel Strategy Explained


08:53 EU Gets Tough on China


12:30 Mali The Next Syria


16:21 CIA Gold Bar Scandal


20:12 Meet Eliot Higgins


23:37 What Is Bellingcat


25:41 AI Slopaganda Threat


29:20 Dark Web Data Trails


31:13 Russia Adapts Tradecraft


32:54 UAE Image Manipulation


34:07 Rapid OSINT Response


35:57 Blackouts and Radar Tools


37:17 Iran Narrative War


39:17 Tomahawk Strike Verification


41:50 Prediction Versus Proof


43:19 Spies Versus OSINT


46:19 Threats and Harassment


50:56 Ukraine OSINT Evolution


54:50 Why China Is Hard for OSINT


01:00:31 Funding and Partnerships

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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With Ayatollah Khamenei’s demise occurring hours into the war, the West anticipated a collapse of the Iranian regime and a popular uprising that never came to be. Is a ‘memorandum of understanding’ the only thing preventing total escalation in the region? In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host journalist Kate McCann sit down with John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), to analyze the ripple effects of the war in Iran and what it will take to stabilize the Middle East.

What is keeping a comprehensive peace deal off the table? How did Western intelligence miscalculate the IRGC’s resilience? And where does this leave the rest of the Middle East?

We also break down China’s pledge to support Cuba’s sovereignty, the 75th anniversary of the Cambridge Five espionage scandal, and the latest in the war in Ukraine, including China’s role in training Russian soldiers and the opening of a museum in North Korea that memorializes the North Korean losses in the war.  

In this episode:


1:07 – Iran, Israel & Trump: The Middle East Crisis Explained


2:52 – Cuba, China, and US Spheres of Influence


6:23 – Cambridge Five: Cold War Spy Scandal Revisited


9:51 – Russia, North Korea, and Ukraine War Shifting


13:26 – Iran War: MOU vs. Formal Peace Deal Explained


16:55 – Why a Comprehensive Iran Deal Remains Out of Reach


22:41 – IRGC Resilience: How Iran's Regime Survived


29:08 – Who Has Influence Over Iran's IRGC?


33:51 – Israel's Military Objectives and Netanyahu's Agenda


39:36 – Gulf States' Vulnerability and Abraham Accords Future


45:26 – How Does the Iran Conflict End? Three Scenarios


49:47 – Sir Richard and Kate Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).
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95 percent of global internet traffic travels through underwater fiber optic cables. They've never been more vulnerable.

In this episode of One Decision, former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood are joined by journalist and author Samanth Subramanian. His latest book,  The Web Beneath the Waves, is an investigation into the hidden infrastructure holding the world's economy together, and the growing threats to it. Subramanian’s book, The Web Beneath the Waves, is an investigation 

Iran is threatening to levy tolls on cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. China is cutting cables in Taiwan's territorial waters using "fishing boats." Russia has been probing European undersea networks for years. And yet there's virtually no international legal framework to stop any of it.

Links: 


The Web Beneath the Waves | Columbia Global Reports 

In this episode:


1:05 — Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump's Strategy


3:44 — US-China Summit: What Really Happened


6:10 — Putin Visits Xi: Russia's Anxiety


8:13 — CIA in Cuba: Economic Takeover Begins


11:17 — Israel's New Mossad Chief Explained


13:22 — Germany's BND Gets New Powers


17:52 — Undersea Cable Vulnerability Exposed


18:48 — How 95% of Internet Data Travels


32:58 — Can Cables Be Tapped Underwater?


38:54 — Deliberate Cable Attacks: Gray Zone War


45:04 — South China Sea: The Biggest Chokepoint


54:53 — One Decision: Future of the Internet


55:55 — Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). 

Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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All eyes are on Beijing as President Trump meets with President Xi Jinping for the first US presidential visit to China in nine years. This week, Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Rush Doshi — former Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan at Biden's National Security Council and author of The Long Game — to break down what's really at stake.

What does China want from this summit? How far will Trump go on Taiwan? And why is artificial intelligence now the defining battleground between the world's two superpowers?

We also cover the latest from the Iran ceasefire collapse, the Russia-Ukraine stalemate, and what sweeping local election losses mean for Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister.

In this episode:

1:02 – Sir Richard’s Secret China Mission

3:11 – Iran Ceasefire Collapse Explained

7:19 – Russia-Ukraine War Stalemate Update

10:50 – UK Elections: Labour's Sweeping Defeat

17:13 – Rush Doshi on US-China Strategy

22:46 – China vs US Economic Interdependence

35:47 – Taiwan: Invasion or Economic Pressure?

43:11 – AI Regulation: New Nuclear Arms Race

44:51 – Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion 

Show Links: 


The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order 


Iran's Regime Won't Fall. It Was Built for This. Iran Expert Trita Parsi on Regional Ramifications 


Obama's China Advisor on Why China Wants the US Stuck in the Middle East | One Decision


Will China Invade Taiwan in 2026? Expert's New Insight Reveals "Perfect Storm" | One Decision  

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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Venezuela's leader Delcy Rodríguez has no constitutional legitimacy, by any standard, including Chavismo's own rules, according to lawyer-turned-journalist Raul Stolk. So who is actually running Venezuela right now? And what does the United States really want?

Raul Stolk, Managing Director of Caracas Chronicles, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Kate McCann for a deep dive into the power structures propping up the Rodríguez government, the US military's direct line to the Venezuelan armed forces, and why opposition leader María Corina Machado may be the single biggest wild card in the country's future.

Links: 


https://caracaschronicles.com


https://caracaschronicles.substack.com/


https://caracasconsulting.com/ 

In this episode:

2:53 - Iran War Impact on Global Energy Markets

6:34 - UAE Exits OPEC: End of Saudi Dominance

8:16 - New Iraqi Government and Middle East Stability

11:31 - Japan Creates Intelligence Bureau 

15:40 - Venezuela After Maduro: Trump's Business Strategy

17:34 - Delcy Rodriguez Legitimacy and Constitutional Crisis

24:34 - Venezuela Military Power Structure Post-Maduro

30:07 - US Geopolitical Goals in Venezuela

45:07 - Venezuela Oil Market China Russia Rivalry

54:47 - Machado Return: Venezuela Election Wild Card

55:48 - Sir Richard and Kate Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor, The Times)
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