One Decision

President Donald Trump has continued his pressure campaign on European defense spending. But in the lead-up to the next NATO Summit, there is another core question to ask: How is Europe coordinating its defense production? This might be the key issue that determines how Trump's pressure campaign pays off in the long run. 

Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove are joined by Ambassador Julianne Smith (Former United States Permanent Representative to NATO under President Biden) and A. Wess Mitchell, Ph.D. (former senior State Department official who helped shape the first Trump administration's Europe strategy) to break down what's really at stake in Ankara. 

Plus: Should NATO stay laser-focused on Russia and leave China to the U.S.? How deep is the lingering trust deficit after the Greenland dispute? 

Got a question or comment? Email us at hello@onedecision.com or drop us a comment on YouTube. We might answer it in next week's episode.

In this episode:

(00:00) Cold Open

(00:57) Where US-Iran Talks Stand

(06:33) Five Eyes Warnings: Chinese LinkedIn Recruitment & AI Threats

(11:51) Setting the Scene for NATO's Ankara Summit

(13:35) What Does the US Want Out of This Summit?

(19:47) Debating What "US Leadership" Really Means

(24:59) Trump's Balancing Act: Pressure vs. Reassurance

(28:04) The Coordination Problem: Europe's "Potluck Dinner"

(37:19) Should NATO Even Focus on China?

(44:31) The Anglosphere & AUKUS Debate

(45:23) Who's the Most Awkward Meeting for Trump in Ankara?

(47:47) Is Trump's Personality a Distraction From Policy?

(50:05) Will the Iran War Overshadow the Summit?

(52:35) Chaos Agent or Strategic Operator?

(56:19) The One Decision to Watch at Ankara

(59:31) Listener Mail: Energy Pricing & Geopolitical Reality

(1:04:15) Listener Mail: Cuba's Civil Society Problem

Show Notes: 


https://youtu.be/0pYUYBwRdLs?si=2fbDUznnuIs-Y5H3 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7FGkxRO_es 

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio)
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In the wake of the United States’ MOU with Iran, the headlines have been chock-full of optimism.

Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Sabrina Singh sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, RBC Capital Markets, to lend more nuance to the news. 

Also: What Starmer’s resignation could mean for the UK, takeaways from the recent G7 meeting, Ukraine’s success with drones, and how things have changed in the decade since Brexit. 

In this episode:

(00:00) Intro: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Explained

(02:00) UK PM Starmer Resigns: What Comes Next

(08:34) G7 Summit: China, Ukraine, and Europe's Crisis

(14:22) Ukraine War: Can Russia Be Stopped?

(18:35) Brexit at 10: Was It Worth It?

(23:24) Is the Strait of Hormuz Really Open?

(30:08) Oil Markets React to Iran-US Peace Deal

(36:55) Iran Nuclear Deal: What's Really at Stake

(44:39) Iran Sanctions Explained: Congress vs. Treasury

(48:01) OPEC's Collapse: Saudi Arabia vs. China

(51:47) Best and Worst Case Outcomes for Oil

(58:22) Key Takeaways: Global Energy's New Reality

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (former Pentagon Press Secretary)
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The man who secretly negotiated with Cuba for the Obama Administration says it plainly: the risk of military intervention is quite high. Ricardo Zúniga breaks down why the U.S. and Cuba are headed toward conflict, why the Cuban regime would rather fight than negotiate, and why Cuba is not Venezuela, no matter what the White House says.

Also this week: the Iran-U.S. ceasefire deal, the resignation of UK Defense Secretary John Healey, and what Armenia's election means for Putin.

In this episode:

(02:07) Iran Deal

(07:32) UK Defense Shakeup

(09:39) Armenia Votes West

(12:14) Cuba Interview Begins

(15:04) Life Inside Cuba

(18:31) Cuba Versus Venezuela

(20:22) Russia China Backing

(24:01) Collapse Crime Risks

(28:28) Will US Strike Cuba?

(33:04) Reform Not Bombs

(36:51) CIA Channel Talks(

44:00) Intermediaries Options

(46:34) One Decision to Change Cuba’s Fate 

Show Notes: 


The Day After in Cuba | Foreign Affairs https://www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/day-after-cuba 


Is Cuba About to Fall? A 35-Year CIA Analyst on What Comes Next | One Decision https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddlk1Wxy8To 

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio)
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The minerals inside your phone, your car, and U.S. fighter jets almost all pass through one country: China.

Dr. Gracelin Baskaran, founding director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at CSIS, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to explain how China built a stranglehold on rare earth production, and what it will actually take to break it. Critical Minerals are this century's defining supply chain vulnerability: it's a demand problem, a democracy problem, and, for the West, a race against a country that isn’t swayed by elections.

Also: Israel's espionage escalation against US officials, Poland's rise as Europe's top defense power, and the fall of Orbán's Hungary.

In this episode:

(00:00) Intro: China's Rare Earth Minerals Takeover

(01:43) World Cup 2026 Preview

(03:50) Middle East Conflict Updates

(06:57) Israel Spying on US Officials?

(08:43) Bill Pulte Named Intelligence Director

(10:27) US APAC Strategy Shifts

(14:41) Poland Becomes Europe's Defense Power

(16:44) Hungary After Orbán's Fall

(19:57) China's Critical Minerals Chokehold

(27:12) Western Mining Supply Chain Crisis

(38:28) Frontier Markets: Africa's Mineral Race

(57:32) Taiwan Crisis and Mineral Shortages

Show Notes: 



The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/06/us/politics/pentagon-sees-growing-espionage-threat-from-israel.html

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist). 
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The Iran conflict contains dueling narratives. Iran says it repelled the attack. Israel says it decimated the nuclear program. The US says it brokered peace. So, how do you find out what actually happened? That’s where Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) can provide valuable information to the public. 

Eliot Higgins built Bellingcat from a Leicester living room blog into the world's most influential open source intelligence organization. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with him to find out how OSINT cuts through the war of narratives on Iran, Ukraine, and the fronts nobody's covering. Plus: why AI is making the truth harder to find, not easier, and why Higgins won't set foot in the United States right now.

Show Notes: 


bellingcat.com 


The al-Qaeda offshoot looking to Syria as a blueprint | The Financial Times


Senior State Department official sought internal communications with journalists, European officials, and Trump critics | MIT Technology Review


Why these Irish cartel bosses are still free | Search Party  

In this episode:


03:21 Iran Ceasefire


06:39 Israel Strategy Explained


08:53 EU Gets Tough on China


12:30 Mali The Next Syria


16:21 CIA Gold Bar Scandal


20:12 Meet Eliot Higgins


23:37 What Is Bellingcat


25:41 AI Slopaganda Threat


29:20 Dark Web Data Trails


31:13 Russia Adapts Tradecraft


32:54 UAE Image Manipulation


34:07 Rapid OSINT Response


35:57 Blackouts and Radar Tools


37:17 Iran Narrative War


39:17 Tomahawk Strike Verification


41:50 Prediction Versus Proof


43:19 Spies Versus OSINT


46:19 Threats and Harassment


50:56 Ukraine OSINT Evolution


54:50 Why China Is Hard for OSINT


01:00:31 Funding and Partnerships

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)
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