SCOTUS Oral Arguments and Opinions

• Upcoming Case Preview | Louisiana v. Callais | Redistricting Reckoning: The Race to Refine Race, Representation, and Voting Rights

  Louisiana v. Callais | Case No. 24-109 | Oral Argument Date: 10/15/25 | Docket Link: HereQuestion Presented: Whether the State's intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution.Other Referenced Episodes:• August 19th – Road Work Ahead: How Four 2024 Cases May Be Reshaping First Amendment Scrutiny | HereOverviewThis episode examines Louisiana v. Callais, a potentially transformative voting rights case that could reshape Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and minority representation nationwide. After ordering reargument and supplemental briefing, the Supreme Court confronts whether race-conscious redistricting to create majority-minority districts violates the very constitutional amendments the VRA was designed to enforce, creating a fundamental paradox at the intersection of civil rights law and equal protection doctrine.Episode RoadmapOpening: A Constitutional Paradox• Supreme Court's unusual reargument order and supplemental question• From routine redistricting challenge to existential VRA question• Constitutional paradox: using civil rights laws to potentially strike down civil rights protectionsConstitutional Framework: The Reconstruction Amendments• Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendment enforcement clauses• Congressional power versus Equal Protection constraints• Strict scrutiny as constitutional roadblock for race-conscious government actionBackground: From Robinson to Callais• 2022 Robinson v. Ardoin litigation establishing Section 2 violation• Complex procedural ping-pong through federal courts• Louisiana's creation of SB8-6 with second majority-Black district• March 2025 oral argument leading to reargument orderSection 2 Framework: The Gingles Test• Effects test versus intent requirement• Three-part analysis for Section 2 violations• Majority-minority districts as remedial toolLegal Arguments: Competing Constitutional VisionsAppellants' Defense (Louisiana & Robinson Intervenors):• Congressional authority under Reconstruction Amendments• Section 2 compliance as compelling governmental interest• Narrow tailoring through built-in Gingles limitationsAppellees' Challenge (Callais):• Section 2 fails congruence and proportionality review• Students for Fair Admissions requires specific discrimination evidence• "Good reasons" test provides insufficient constitutional protectionOral Argument Preview: Key Questions for Reargument• Temporal scope of congressional enforcement power• SFFA's impact on voting rights doctrine• Practical consequences for existing majority-minority districts• Federalism tensions in electoral oversightEpisode HighlightsConstitutional Tension: The same Reconstruction Amendments used to justify the VRA in 1965 now being invoked to potentially strike it down in 2025Procedural Drama: Court's unusual reargument order signals fundamental doctrinal questions about VRA's constitutional foundationsPractical Stakes: Could eliminate dozens of majority-minority congressional districts and significantly reduce minority representationHistorical Evolution: From 1982 Section 2 effects test designed to combat discrimination to 2025 argument that it perpetuates discriminationSFFA Integration: How 2023 affirmative action ruling's anti-classification principle

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• Upcoming Case Preview | Case v. Montana | Warrantless Welfare Checks: When Can Cops Enter to your Castle Without Cause?

  Case v. Montana | Case No. 24-624 | Oral Argument Date: 10/15/25 | Docket Link: HereQuestion Presented: Whether law enforcement may enter a home without a search warrant based on less than probable cause that an emergency is occurring, or whether the emergency-aid exception requires probable cause.Other Referenced Episodes:August 5th Roundup: Presidential Power Crushes Agency Independence, Court Places Voting Rights Act in Crosshairs and Maryland v. Shatzer, a Case That Evolved Beyond Its Origins | HereOverviewThis episode examines Case v. Montana, a Fourth Amendment case that has drawn unprecedented attention with 35 states weighing in, challenging the established emergency-aid exception by asking the Supreme Court to require probable cause rather than the current "objectively reasonable belief" standard for warrantless home entries during emergencies. The case could fundamentally reshape how police respond to suicide calls, medical emergencies, and welfare checks nationwide.Episode RoadmapOpening: Unprecedented Stakes and AttentionOctober 15th, 2025 oral argument date35 states weighing in, with 34 opposing the petitioner's positionPotential nationwide impact on emergency response proceduresNovel aspect: Petitioner seeking to restrict, not expand, police authorityConstitutional Framework: The Fourth Amendment Text"The right of the people to be secure... against unreasonable searches and seizures"Two-clause structure: Reasonableness Clause vs. Warrant ClauseNo textual emergency-aid exception - entirely judge-made doctrineCourt's recent skepticism toward expansive judge-made constitutional doctrinesBackground: The Tragic Facts in Anaconda, MontanaSeptember 2021: William Trevor Case's suicide threat to ex-girlfriend J.H.Escalating call: drinking, gun cocking sounds, "pop" followed by dead airJ.H.'s 9-1-1 call reporting believed suicide attemptOfficers' prior knowledge of Case's history with suicide attempts and violenceThe Police Response and Corroborating Evidence18-minute preparation period with protective equipmentWindow observations: keys on table, empty beer cans, empty gun holster, apparent suicide noteEntry through unlocked door during protective sweepCase emerges from closet pointing handgun at Sergeant PashaOfficer shoots Case in abdomen; medical aid renderedProcedural History: The Court JourneyTrial court denies suppression motion, finds "exigent circumstance"Case convicted of assaulting peace officer, sentenced to 60 yearsMontana Supreme Court affirms 4-3 with vigorous dissentSupreme Court grants certiorari to resolve deep circuit splitThe Circuit Split Crisis"Reasonable Belief" Courts:First, Eighth, and Tenth Circuits plus Montana and three other statesStandard: "Objective, specific and articulable facts from which an experienced officer would suspect citizen needs help""Probable Cause" Courts:D.C., Second, and Eleventh Circuits plus Nebraska and ColoradoStandard: "Probable cause to believe person is seriously injured or threatened with such injury"Case's Three Main Arguments (Seeking Higher

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• Upcoming Case Preview | Bowe v. United States | The Do-Over Dilemma: Federal Prisoners and the Jurisdiction Trap

  Bowe v. United States | Case No. 24-5438 | Oral Argument Date: 10/14/25 | Docket Link: HereQuestions Presented:Whether 28 U.S.C. § 2244(b)(1) applies to a claim presented in a second or successive motion to vacate under 28 U.S.C. § 2255.Whether 28 U.S.C. § 2244(b)(3)(E) deprives this Court of certiorari jurisdiction over the grant or denial of an authorization by a court of appeals to file a second or successive motion to vacate under 28 U.S.C. § 2255.OverviewThis episode examines Bowe v. United States, where the government concedes error but argues the Supreme Court lacks jurisdiction to correct it. The case explores whether the "do-over bar" in AEDPA applies to federal prisoners and whether an acknowledged legal error will go unremedied due to jurisdictional barriers.Episode RoadmapOpening: An Acknowledged Error Without a RemedyGovernment's unusual position: conceding error but claiming the Court can't fix itMichael Bowe's years-long struggle to challenge his convictionConstitutional context: Ex Post Facto Clause and retroactive application of Davis and TaylorThe Two Questions PresentedQuestion One: Does the do-over bar (§ 2244(b)(1)) apply to federal prisoners even though it references only state prisoner applications under § 2254?Question Two: Does § 2244(b)(3)(E) bar Supreme Court certiorari review of authorization decisions for federal prisoners?Background: Michael Bowe's Journey2008: Pled guilty including Section 924(c) conviction (using firearm during crime of violence)2019: Davis strikes down residual clause; Bowe seeks authorization but Eleventh Circuit denies based on circuit precedent2022: Taylor abrogates that precedent; Bowe seeks authorization again2022: Eleventh Circuit dismisses under do-over bar in In re Baptiste2024: Third authorization request denied; all alternatives rejected2025: Supreme Court grants certiorari; government switches positionLegal FrameworkSection 2255: Federal prisoner post-conviction relief vehicleSection 2244: Originally for state prisoners; contains:(b)(1): Do-over bar—bars claims "presented in a second or successive habeas corpus application under section 2254"(b)(3): Authorization procedures, including (b)(3)(E)'s certiorari barSection 2255(h): "Second or successive motion must be certified as provided in section 2244"—key question is what this incorporatesCircuit Split: Six circuits apply do-over bar to federal prisoners; three reject itPetitioner's Main ArgumentsArgument One: Plain Text Excludes Federal PrisonersDo-over bar explicitly references "section 2254" (state prisoners only)Federal prisoners use § 2255 motions, not § 2254 applicationsSection 2255(h) incorporates certification procedures only, not substantive barsEven Eleventh Circuit admits § 2255(h) doesn't incorporate § 2244(b)(2)—can't incorporate (b)(1) either since both use identical "section 2254" languageArgument Two: Federalism Explains Differential TreatmentAEDPA repeatedly subjects state prisoners to stricter requirementsState prisoner habeas implicates federalism and comity concernsFederal prisoners challenging federal convictions raise no federalism...

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• Upcoming Case Preview | Ellingburg v. United States | The Restitution Riddle: When Does Compensation Become Punishment?

  Ellingburg v. United States | Case No. 24-482 | Docket Link: HereQuestion Presented: Whether criminal restitution under the Mandatory Victim Restitution Act (MVRA) is penal for purposes of the Ex Post Facto Clause.OverviewThis episode examines Ellingburg v. United States, one of the most procedurally unusual Supreme Court cases in recent memory. After the Court granted certiorari, the government switched positions following a change in presidential Administration, now agreeing with the criminal defendant that the Eighth Circuit erred. The Court appointed an outside attorney as amicus curiae to defend the lower court's judgment, creating a rare scenario where both named parties argue for the same outcome. At its core, the case asks whether mandatory criminal restitution constitutes punishment subject to the Constitution's Ex Post Facto Clause—a question with profound implications for thousands of federal defendants and the government's authority to retroactively enforce criminal restitution obligations.Episode RoadmapOpening: A Procedural RarityGovernment switches sides after Administration changeCourt appoints amicus curiae to defend Eighth Circuit's judgmentUnusual three-way legal battle over fundamental constitutional questionImplications for thousands convicted of federal crimes before 1996Background: Ellingburg's Story1995: Holsey Ellingburg, Jr. robs bank in St. Louis, Missouri1996: Sentenced to 322 months imprisonment, ordered to pay $7,567 restitution under pre-MVRA law (VWPA)Under original law, restitution obligation expired November 2016 (20-year limit)2022: Released from prison, rebuilding life on minimum wage2023: Government demands $13,476 using MVRA's extended collection period and mandatory interestPro se motion challenges retroactive application as Ex Post Facto violationThe Central Legal QuestionIs MVRA restitution criminal punishment or civil remedy?If criminal: Ex Post Facto Clause prohibits retroactive applicationIf civil: Government can apply new collection rules to old offensesStatutory construction as threshold issue: What did Congress intend?Procedural Journey Through the CourtsDistrict Court: Denied motion, held MVRA application merely "procedural"Eighth Circuit: Affirmed on different ground—restitution is civil remedy, not criminal punishmentCircuit relied on Carruth precedent despite Pasquantino and Paroline developmentsTwo concurring judges questioned binding precedent's continued validitySupreme Court grants certiorari to resolve circuit splitConstitutional Framework: The Ex Post Facto ClauseArticle I, Section 9, Clause 3: "No ex post facto Law shall be passed"Prohibits retroactively increasing punishment for criminal actsOnly applies to criminal laws, not civil remediesConstitutional protection against arbitrary government powerThe Statutory Text BattleSection 3663A: Restitution ordered "when sentencing a defendant convicted of an offense""In addition to, or in lieu of, any other penalty authorized by law"Codification in Title 18 criminal code, Chapter 227 "Sentences"Criminal procedures govern: presentence reports, probation officers, appellate reviewEnforcement through threat of imprisonment for nonpaymentPetitioner's Three Main ArgumentsArgument 1: Text and Structure Prove Criminal IntentStatutory language integrates restitution into criminal sentencingGrouped with fines and...

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• Oral Argument Preview | Bost v. Illinois | Ballot Box Bout: When Can Candidates Challenge Election Rules?

  Bost v. Illinois State Bd. of Elections | Case No. 24-568 | Oral Argument Date: 10/8/25 | Docket Link: HereOverviewThis episode examines Bost v. Illinois, a Supreme Court case that could reshape how candidates challenge election laws in federal court. Congressman Michael Bost and two Republican presidential elector nominees are challenging Illinois's law allowing mail-in ballots to be counted up to 14 days after Election Day, creating a fundamental test of Article III standing doctrine in the election law context. The case sits at the intersection of constitutional standing requirements and the unique competitive dynamics of electoral politics, with implications for whether candidates should receive special treatment to challenge election rules or must meet the same concrete injury standards as all other plaintiffs.Episode RoadmapOpening: A Fundamental Question About Federal Courts• October 8, 2025 oral argument date• Standing doctrine meets election law in crucial constitutional test• Circuit split on candidate challenges to election rules• Implications for flood of pre-election litigation vs. orderly dispute resolutionBackground: Illinois's Ballot-Receipt Extension• 2005 Illinois law change allowing 14-day post-Election Day counting window• Historical roots in Civil War soldier voting accommodations• About half of states now allow similar extended receipt deadlines• Congressman Michael Bost and two Republican presidential elector nominees challenge lawConstitutional Framework: Article III's Case-or-Controversy Requirement• "Judicial Power shall extend to all Cases, in Law and Equity"• Standing doctrine requires concrete, particularized, traceable injury• Tension between candidate investment in election rules and generalized grievances• Elections Clause and Electors Clause federal frameworkProcedural Journey Through the Courts• May 2022: Pre-enforcement challenge filed• July 2023: District court dismisses for lack of standing• Seventh Circuit affirmed in split decision with Judge Scudder's influential partial dissent• Supreme Court grants certiorari to resolve candidate standing questionThe Three-Way Legal Battle• Petitioners' blanket candidate standing rule vs. concrete injury requirements• Electoral harm theory: competitive disadvantage vs. speculative injury• Pocketbook injury claims: campaign extension costs vs. manufactured standingClapper Doctrine and Mitigation Expenditures• When spending money to avoid harm creates standing vs. speculative preparation• Illinois's challenge to factual basis of extended campaign operations• "Near certainty" of ballot counting vs. substantial risk standardOral Argument Preview: Key Tensions to Watch• Justices' reaction to special candidate standing exception• Factual record problems and thin allegations• Floodgates concerns vs. orderly pre-election resolution• Purcell principle timing considerationsBroader Constitutional Stakes• Article III's role in limiting federal court jurisdiction• Election law's unique challenges for traditional standing doctrine• Federalism questions about state election rule authority• Volume and intensity of modern election litigation trendsReferenced CasesClapper v. Amnesty International | 568 U.S. 398 (2013)Question Presented: Whether respondents have Article III standing to challenge FISA Amendments Act surveillance...

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