The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

The Fed hiked a quarter point. Peter explains why it will not stop the bond market, the dollar, or what is already coming for housing.

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The Fed finally hiked. Peter says the quarter point changes nothing about what is already in motion.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, a 90 percent probability going in and a unanimous vote coming out. Peter's read is that none of that signals resolve. The Fed did not hike because it wanted to. Months of tough talk had stopped working, the bond market had called the bluff, and the committee was left with a put-up-or-shut-up moment it could not dodge. So it did the smallest thing available, and Kevin Warsh gave the shortest press conference of his tenure on the way out.

A quarter point does not touch inflation heading for a four handle, not with oil above 100 dollars and diesel at record highs. The reason the Fed will not do more is not caution, it is capacity. A hike large enough to break inflation would break the economy and the Treasury's ability to fund itself.

The market understood immediately. The Dow closed down roughly 600 points after being green before the announcement, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5 percent, which Peter calls a stepping stone to 6. He also covers Trump's demand for sub-1 percent rates, Scott Bessent's testimony, why 8 percent mortgages are coming, and why he expects gold to recover from this selloff quickly.

Chapters:
00:00 Fed Hikes Under Pressure
00:33 Markets Priced In the Move
03:46 Fed Cornered by Inflation Talk
06:38 Symbolic Hike and Market Fallout
10:11 Fiscal Policy and Real Inflation
21:31 Bond Yields Surge and Trump Reacts
32:28 Import Cold Turkey Fallout
33:40 Tariffs And China Surplus
35:08 Empty Shelves Economic Crash
36:18 Five Thousand Dollar Dividend
44:30 Bonds For Bombs And Meme Coins
53:32 Crypto Politics Gold Outlook Farewell

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#PeterSchiffShow #FedRateHike #Inflation #Gold #BondMarket

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Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

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Peter got dropped from Fox News for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI just proved him right.

Last December Peter went on Fox News and said prices were still rising and the rate of increase would accelerate. Trump called him a Trump hater; Fox stopped booking him. Today's CPI: up 0.4% for August, 3.4% year over year, core hotter than expected, PPI running 5.4%, oil back over $100. Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Everything he said would happen has happened, while the president told a Republican convention this week that prices are "rapidly going down."

Markets now put 88% odds on a rate hike next week, and Peter says the Fed has backed itself into a corner: Warsh has talked tough for so long that not hiking ends the Fed's credibility. But a symbolic 25 basis points "ain't gonna cut it" when inflation is rising faster than rates. The bond market already knows. The 10-year hit 4.97%, a 19-year high, the 30-year 5.35%, and Peter argues we're only six years into a bear market where 5% is nowhere near the top, with $40 trillion of debt to refinance. He also takes apart Trump's $5,000 "dividend" (a bribe paid from $4 trillion of new debt), calls gold dips a gift, and says Bitcoin's chart projects to zero.

Chapters:
00:00 Fox News Inflation Call
00:34 9/11 Reflections and Liberty
05:27 CPI Report and Fed Odds
14:16 Symbolic Hike Won’t Work
36:49 Metals and Bitcoin Check
37:51 Bitcoin Head and Shoulders
39:24 Why a Midterm Convention
44:55 The 5000 Dividend Claim
57:17 Inflation Jobs and Wrap Up

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and the Fed still says 2%. Why the bond market breaks before the stock market does.

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and 65 straight months above 2%. Peter says the bond market breaks first.

Brent touched $99.50 and copper hit an all-time high, and Peter's point is that the Fed's 2% target was already unreachable when oil was falling. Sixty-five months above target, and now the inputs are rising again. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday could both come in hot, and if they do, the damage shows up in bonds before it shows up in stocks. The market is pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike next week. Peter doesn't think the Fed will do it, and thinks 25 basis points wouldn't matter if it did, since the market would immediately start pricing the next one.

The rest is the bill coming due elsewhere. China just posted a record trade surplus, with August exports up 25% year over year and exports to the US up 34%, which is what happens when tariffs price Americans out of the best deal rather than moving production home. Peter got the receipt himself: the courier billed him for the tariff, then billed him again to process it. Meanwhile the hyperscalers that used to park cash in Treasuries are borrowing from the same pool the government needs, at a moment when interest costs already run $1.2 trillion a year.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:39 War Shock Fuels Commodities
02:15 Copper vs Gold Real Money
06:11 Iran War Drags On
21:31 Tariffs and Trade War Fallout
30:18 Producers vs Consumers
31:50 Tariffs Shift Trade
35:52 Why Trade Wars Fail
43:37 Nickels Beat Treasuries
50:59 Fed, Inflation, and Wrap-Up

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#PeterSchiffShow #BondMarket #Inflation

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Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump's trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.

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The government says 162,000 jobs is a boom. Peter Schiff says it's a miss, and the bond market agrees.

The August jobs report came in at 162,000 against a 55,000 consensus, and Peter Schiff walks through why the number is worse than it looks. The birth-death model supplied 74,000 of those jobs, 45% of the total, on the assumption that new businesses were hiring. More than a third of the rest were waiters and bartenders. JOLTS and ADP both pointed the other way, last month was revised down, and real wages are falling. Kevin Hassett called it a boom; by most measures the economy is weaker than the day Trump took over.

Then Trump raised the stakes. He declared that America deserves the lowest interest rates in the world, then threatened to terminate all trade with any surplus country if the Fed doesn't cut. Peter's answer: the United States has never been a worse credit risk than it is right now. The 10-year hit 4.81% and the 30-year 5.28%, the highest since 2007. Japan has sold its Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $1.1 trillion, everyone who was buying is now selling, and the Fed will end up the buyer of last resort, which means inflation.

Peter also covers the week's real data: the July trade deficit at $88.6 billion, the biggest since March 2025; the $283 part that cost him 162% of the tariff once FedEx added its fee; diesel at a record above $5.80; Lutnick on semiconductors and Bastiat's candlemakers; Waller's rate comments sending gold back above $4,400; and an update on TGold's coming gold debit and credit cards.

Chapters:
00:00 No Buyers Left
00:29 Back In Puerto Rico
00:47 Jobs Report Miss
05:36 Real Wages Falling
06:09 Waiters And Bartenders
08:00 JOLTS ADP Contradiction
09:10 Birth Death Model
10:23 Hassett Boom Claim
13:27 Trump Rate Demands
15:20 Worst Credit Risk Ever
17:24 Trump Trade Ultimatum
24:07 Bessent Kudlow Interview
27:27 Yields Hit 2007 Highs
28:24 Yen And Japan Selling
31:14 Oil Diesel Record
33:15 Stocks Gold Silver
39:16 Trade Deficit Widens
42:02 My 162% Tariff Bill
45:37 Lutnick Semiconductors
48:33 Bastiat Candlemakers
51:08 Waller Rate Comments
53:39 Gold Pullback Gift
54:03 TGold Cards Update
1:00:24 Bitcoin And EuroPac
1:02:12 Labor Day Sign Off

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Warsh talks tough, buybacks double, a military option surfaces, gold falls $140, and boat prices collapse 50%.

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The Treasury doubled its bond buybacks this week. Then the talk turned to a military option for yields.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spent his most anticipated speech of the year talking tough about inflation, and Peter Schiff explains why none of it matters. Warsh accepted responsibility for 65 straight months above the 2% target, then never once mentioned the $40 trillion national debt or the Treasury intervention running underneath him. Money supply is expanding at roughly 6% annualized since he took the job. He is talking about putting out the fire while pouring the gasoline.

Underneath the speech, the policy escalated. Treasury buybacks already doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion, with roughly a trillion in the general fund available to extend them, shortening the average maturity of the debt and leaving the government more exposed to the rate hikes markets are now pricing. And in a Fox News interview on that same intervention, a military option for lowering bond yields was raised.

Peter also covers the week's real data: gold down $140, silver reversing from nearly $71, a Chicago PMI collapse to 47.1 that was the biggest downside miss in eleven years, and a boat market where prices have fallen 50% and lenders are taking the keys, a Fed-made boom and bust he argues housing is about to repeat.

Chapters:
00:00 Inflation Firestorm
00:37 Boatcast Setup
01:02 Warsh Speech Breakdown
04:12 Debt And Twist Ignored
08:10 Forward Guidance Critique
11:19 Dual Mandate Tradeoffs
12:46 Money Supply Matters
13:56 Hawkish Talk And Markets
18:50 Trump Military Option
20:01 Canada Tariffs Fallout
27:53 Market Wrap Gold Bitcoin
31:46 Strategy Dilution Spiral
32:42 Dollar Yen Bonds Warning
34:11 Manufacturing Digital Shift
39:03 Boating Bubble Bust
45:28 Boat Costs Force Selling
48:13 West Marine Bankruptcy
53:02 Buyer Market Repos Risk
56:30 Boat Ownership Reality
57:09 Closing Politics Plug

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#BondMarket #FederalReserve

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