The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff on plunging retail sales, sticky inflation, the Fed's stealth QE, and why the world is now leaving the dollar standard.

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Retail sales just plunged, producer prices are still rising, and the Fed is quietly expanding its balance sheet again.

The July data tells the story the markets keep ignoring. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent, the biggest drop in over a year, and since those numbers are not adjusted for inflation, real spending fell even further. Consumer sentiment sank to 51 as households braced for 4.3 percent inflation, more than double the Fed's 2 percent target. Producer prices rose 4.7 percent year over year, and instead of rallying on the weak data, the bond market sold off to its lowest weekly close of the year, with the 30-year at 5.27 percent. Meanwhile the Fed expanded its balance sheet by more than 21 billion dollars in two weeks, with the national debt about 80 billion dollars away from 40 trillion.

Peter marks 55 years since Nixon closed the gold window and calls it what it was: a 100 percent default on America's creditors. His father Irwin testified against removing gold backing in 1968, and the 1970s proved him right. Now the sequel is underway. The world is going off the dollar standard the way America went off gold, and the next leg down in the American standard of living has already started. Gold near 4,400 dollars and silver above 66 are the market's verdict.

Chapters:
00:00 Middle Class Squeeze
01:01 PPI Breakdown
04:08 Fed Balance Sheet Surge
05:23 Stagflation Signals
08:28 Bond Market Warning
11:39 Greenspan and 1987 Echoes
14:48 Stocks vs Bonds Diverge
15:33 Gold Shines Bitcoin Slips
18:16 Bitcoin Bear Case
21:08 Iran Sanctions and Oil
26:30 Nixon Gold Standard Legacy
28:52 Inflation Math Reality
29:30 Video Plug Fiat Failure
30:19 Electric Catamaran Tour
34:30 Cruising Plans Tax Credit
37:02 Gold Standard Break Explained
48:09 Dollar Standard Ending

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#Stagflation #Inflation

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A record $432B July deficit, $40 trillion in debt days away, gold above $4,400... last week's fireworks were just the opening act.

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The CPI came in tame. Hours later the Treasury reported a $432 billion July deficit... the worst single month in US history.

Peter breaks down why the benign 0.1% July CPI is an accounting illusion: the BLS compares monthly averages, so June's oil collapse masked July's crude rebound, and August is set up to run hot. The real inflation news came later that day from the Treasury: a record $432 billion July deficit, $1.8 trillion in just ten months, and a national debt now less than $150 billion from $40 trillion. Bigger deficits mean more pressure on the Fed to choose inflation, which is exactly why the bond market refused to rally on the "good" CPI number.

Gold holds above $4,400 and silver above $65 as heavy Asian buying signals the de-dollarization trade is back on, while Bitcoin sits dead at $63,500 and misses the entire rally. Peter also covers the yen back above 159 and the Fed's swap-line backdoor QE for Japan, both parties drifting left after the latest primaries, Trump family corruption from Truth Social premium access to Barron's $150 million, and the Iran endgame: no deal, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and a president claiming victory in a war America clearly lost.

Chapters:
00:00 Inflation Signals Not Prices
01:22 CPI Print And Market Bets
04:24 CPI Math Masks Energy Surge
10:37 Deficits The Real Inflation Driver
19:54 Gold Surge Debt And Yen QE
31:09 Radical Left Wins Primaries
32:00 Both Parties Shift Left
34:17 Trump Corruption Claims
37:51 Bitcoin Stalls vs Gold
44:13 Iran War Reality Check

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Peter Schiff breaks down July's negative jobs report, Japan's yen crisis, and the Fed's stealth QE bailout as gold and silver surge.

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Recording from his boat in Rhode Island, Peter Schiff covers a week that vindicated his forecasts. The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, with prior months revised down another 105,000 and labor force participation falling to 61.4%, a level unseen outside COVID lockdowns in 50 years. Full-time jobs have declined in six of the last seven months while wages lag inflation, confirming the stagflation Peter has long warned about. The bigger story is Japan: with the yen at a 40-year low and JGB yields at record highs, the US executed its first yen intervention since 1998, roughly ten times larger, using euros instead of dollars and blindsiding the ECB. The Fed also took Japan's Treasuries via repo and printed the dollars, a stealth form of quantitative easing that contradicts its inflation-fighting rhetoric. Markets got the message: gold jumped 7.8% to 4,341, silver surged 12.3% to 63.46 after holding above the old $50 ceiling, and GDX rocketed 22% in one week, all far outpacing Bitcoin's 3.7% gain. Peter argues the intervention is just the beginning, the Fed will not hike before the midterms, and a currency and sovereign debt crisis is approaching. He urges listeners to prepare with gold, silver, miners, and foreign stocks, and to understand the coming crisis is caused by government, not capitalism.

Chapters:
00:00 Fed Japan Bond Backstop
01:11 Back At Sea Intro
01:59 Week Ahead Jobs Japan
03:23 Stocks Metals Surge
06:23 Bitcoin Strategy Warning
09:15 Bonds Dollar Fed Odds
14:00 July Jobs Shock
15:33 Revisions Participation Drop
19:51 Wages Inflation Stagflation
24:09 Trump Ballroom Rant
26:49 Japan Crisis Tease
29:24 Japan Yen Breakdown
31:30 Debt Trap And Rates
32:23 Treasury Selling Threat
34:35 Fed And BOJ Coordination
36:08 Swap Line QE Explained
41:15 Euro Intervention Twist
44:29 Inflation Signals And Metals
47:51 Storm Warning Ahead
49:18 Blame Government Not Markets
52:07 Prepare And Spread The Word

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The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.

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The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.

The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.

Chapters:
00:00 Debt Bubble Reality
00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady
03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts
16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction
27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold
31:45 Yields and Gold Misread
35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case
37:40 Fed Fallout and Data
43:12 NYC Government Grocers
55:42 Capitalism and Wrap Up

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The yen just hit a 40-year low and Japan is trapped. Whether they hike or freeze, it ends the same way: the pin that pricks our bubble.

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Investors are far too complacent about risks that are now hiding in plain sight. The AI trade cracked this week: Alphabet fell 10% after announcing even higher CapEx, Oracle is down 41% on the year, Meta and Amazon fell, and Microsoft is nearly in a bear market. SpaceX now trades 49% below its post-IPO high with its float set to jump from 5% to 40% by year end, and Tesla dropped 18%, costing Elon Musk nearly $100 billion in a week. Peter Schiff compares the roughly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in annual AI CapEx to the dot-com build-out, where the early favorites went bankrupt and took their vendors down with them.

The bigger danger is Japan. The yen fell to a 40-year low against the dollar, the 30-year JGB yield hit an all-time high near 4%, and with debt above 200% of GDP and a policy rate still at just 1%, Japan is trapped. Whether the Bank of Japan finally hikes aggressively or stays timid, the result spills into the United States, potentially forcing the world's largest holder of US Treasuries to dump its $1.1 trillion position. Schiff calls Japan the pin that pricks the far bigger US bubble. Meanwhile the US 30-year yield hit a 20-year high of 5.16% on more than four times the debt of 2006, oil is up 30% in July guaranteeing a hotter CPI, and gold rose on the week even as bonds and stocks fell, with the miners signaling a bottom. He closes on why record-low jobless claims are meaningless in a gig economy and why Trump's new slave-labor tariffs are an unconstitutional tax on Americans.

Chapters:
00:00 Japan Sparks US Crisis
00:41 AI CapEx Reality Check
07:51 AI Bubble Parallels
13:03 Gold Miners Rebound
19:17 Oil Bonds Warning Signs
32:16 Japan Debt Rate Trap
34:36 Weak Yen Trade Deficits
37:22 Japan Creditor Status Slips
41:22 Two Japan Crisis Paths
44:26 US Vulnerability Dominoes
45:21 Unemployment Claims Hype
47:20 Why Claims Mislead
51:37 New Tariffs Legal Workaround
59:03 Wrap Up Subscribe Call

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#PeterSchiffShow #gold #inflation

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