The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

September prices rose 0.6%, or 7.4% annualized. Peter Schiff explains why the Fed has already lost the inflation fight and housing is next.

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September prices rose 0.6% in a month. Annualized, that is 7.4% inflation, and Washington never reports it that way.

Peter Schiff breaks down the September CPI report: a 0.6% monthly gain, 3.7% year over year, and a hotter-than-expected core reading. Washington annualizes GDP to make it look bigger but never annualizes inflation. Markets sold off across bonds, gold, silver and tech, and the odds of an October rate hike jumped from about 15% to over 40%. Peter explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a dove in hawk's clothing, with one 25 basis point hike in five months while the money supply and balance sheet keep growing. The Fed has already lost the inflation fight, which makes the sell-off in gold and silver a buying opportunity.

He traces the spiral: deficits drive inflation, inflation drives rates, and higher rates widen the deficits again. With the 30-year mortgage above 7.5% and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac down more than 20% in three days, home prices have to fall. Plus the Beige Book's stagflation signal, 479 new 52-week lows against 60 new highs, and why Richard Heart's arrest confirms Peter's call on HEX.

Chapters:
00:00 Deficit Inflation Spiral
01:02 CPI Shock Breakdown
03:47 Markets React Rate Hike Odds
07:28 Gold Mispriced Opportunity
08:08 Fed Hawk Talk Exposed
10:18 Why Bonds Lose to Inflation
14:24 Housing Standoff Fannie Freddie
16:36 QE Return Dollar Risk
17:18 Buy the Dip Pitch
18:37 Inflation Hawks Smoke Mirrors
21:24 Socialism vs Capitalism Defined
28:20 Trump Ceasefire Reality Check
31:36 Tariffs and 5000 Check Promises
35:27 AI Work Guide Plug
36:10 Beige Book Stagflation
37:16 Stock Market Reality Check
39:18 Big Banks Double Standard
43:32 AmEx Deal Fallout
46:01 Debanking And Politics
48:22 Smoking Gun Email
57:44 FOIA Evidence Trail
01:00:11 Media And Government Corruption
01:05:54 Nick McKenzie Theory
01:12:21 Crypto Fraud Arrest
01:14:16 Gold Silver Signoff

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Consumers are more worried now than at 2022's 40-year inflation high. Peter Schiff shows why the 'greatest economy ever' is pure fiction.

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Consumers are more worried about their finances than at any point in 75 years. Washington calls it a boom.

Peter Schiff takes apart the claim that America has the greatest economy in history. The University of Michigan's current conditions index just fell to an all-time low in a survey that dates to 1951. Households were less worried during the Cuban missile crisis, the 1970s gas lines, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID and the 40-year inflation high of 2022 than they are today. Loan delinquencies are the highest since 2010, and the biggest wealth gains are going to households headed by someone 75 or older, because the same policies that raise the cost of living also inflate the stocks they own.

Peter argues the weak economy explains the week's politics: a diesel deal with Russia three weeks after a law authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, a pledge not to bomb Iran until after the midterms, and a committee of Trump appointees investigating Fed governor Lisa Cook. He also covers Fed minutes in which officials concede policy is not restrictive, a 30-year Treasury yield that reached 5.73%, why 7.4% mortgages are a return to normal, the week in gold, silver and Bitcoin, and why barring Microsoft from sponsoring foreign workers sends those jobs, taxes and spending overseas.

Chapters:
00:00 Record Low Confidence
01:03 Trump Boom Claims
03:39 Michigan Sentiment Shock
06:58 75 Years of Crises
11:19 Great Economy Fiction
11:36 Winter Prep Sponsor
12:46 Polls and Debt Stress
16:19 Who Benefits From Boom
17:54 Russia Diesel Flip Flop
22:29 Iran Timing and Markets
24:16 Rename AI to SI
26:06 Lisa Cook Probe Committee
28:51 Mortgage Fraud Politics
30:53 Fed Minutes More Hikes
32:02 Bond Yields New Normal
33:05 Bitcoin Real Estate Debate
36:40 High Debt High Rates
38:15 Weekly Market Recap
39:03 Gold Silver Buy Zone
40:27 Bitcoin Anniversary Reality
42:50 Treasury Yields Reality Check
44:43 H1B Visa Backlash
46:30 Who Owns The Job
52:42 Remote Hiring Consequences
56:29 Wrap Up And Sign Off

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Tariffs failed, imports hit a record, and France is rioting. Peter Schiff explains why America's sovereign debt crisis is next.

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Imports hit a record in August, the tariffs failed, and France just showed America where runaway debt ends.

Peter Schiff opens with the August trade deficit: $105.6 billion against a $99 billion forecast, with total imports at a record high despite Trump's tariffs. The tariffs did not reduce buying; they only made imports more expensive. Prices paid in the ISM services survey rose to 74, the highest since July 2022. Peter argues Republicans squandered two years of control and that Trump could have forced a balanced budget by vetoing debt ceiling increases, but pushed to abolish the ceiling instead.

France is the preview. Its 10-year yield of 4.75% now sits below America's 5.28%, its government spends 57% of GDP, and even timid proposals to slow spending growth are meeting protests in the streets. Peter explains why the eurozone failed exactly as he warned in the 1990s, then makes the case that keeping America out of World War I would have prevented World War II. With gold below $4,200 and silver near $60, he argues precious metals are the last safe haven as sovereign debt crises spread.

Chapters:
00:00 Global Debt Unrest
00:42 Stocks Hit Records
02:37 Trade Deficit Shock
07:40 Tariffs Backfire
10:48 Inflation Signals Rising
12:51 GOP Spending Failure
16:28 Veto Power Missed
18:25 MAGA Loyalty Machine
25:09 France Bond Spread Alarm
30:47 France Cuts Spark Protests
32:55 Welfare State Backlash
33:41 Pension Changes Explained
34:40 Healthcare and Sick Pay Tweaks
36:27 Freezes and Token Cuts
38:24 Debt Crisis and ECB Limits
39:18 Eurozone Moral Hazard
43:23 ECB Bailouts and Inflation
44:26 France as US Warning
45:11 Brazil Election Market Reaction
47:38 Tucker Interview on War
49:31 Why WWI Led to WWII
55:13 Unintended War Consequences
01:00:09 Wrap Up and Gold Pitch

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Peter Schiff on a 29,000 jobs miss, weak wage growth, a $132.6B trade deficit, Trump's inflation remark, and why bonds sold off anyway.

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Peter Schiff breaks down the September jobs report: just 29,000 jobs against an 85,000 estimate. July was revised back to negative 10,000 and August down to 133,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, private payrolls added 46,000, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1%, the smallest monthly gain in more than five years, while August CPI rose 0.4%. Peter had forecast both the miss and the downward revisions on Tuesday's podcast.

Peter explains why the bond market sold off despite the weak report and softer August PCE data, even as the odds of an October rate hike fell sharply. The 10-year Treasury closed the week at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%, which he calls classic bear market action. He also covers personal income rising 0.2% against spending up 0.9%, a 4.1% savings rate, and an August trade deficit of $132.6 billion, the fourth worst in US history, which he says shows tariffs have not reduced imports and that importers are the ones paying them.

On stocks, Peter notes the Nasdaq hit an intraday record while 147 stocks made new 52-week lows against 38 new highs on the week, breadth he compares to 1999-2000 and 1973. He responds to President Trump's interview comment that inflation will pay off the debt, arguing it amounts to a sell signal for bondholders, and disputes Trump's claim that he inherited inflation from Biden.

Peter reviews gold near $4,140, silver at $60.37 and the miners, Bitcoin near $84,500 and Strategy's Stretch trading back near par, and argues the data points to stagflation, with AI capital spending propping up GDP. He discusses the G7's 100 million barrel oil reserve release, mortgage rates he thinks could reach 8% this month, risks to housing, autos, credit and Fannie and Freddie, $40 trillion in debt at 5% interest, Janet Yellen's past comments on low rates, and Rick Santelli's final day at CNBC. He closes by urging listeners to buy the dip in gold and silver, with support near $4,000 and $60.

Chapters:
00:00 Bond Crisis Warning
01:02 September Jobs Shock
03:02 Revisions and Labor Details
06:22 Wages Lag Inflation
08:16 Bonds Sell Off Anyway
12:36 Income Spending PCE
15:47 Trade Deficit Tariffs
20:13 Stocks Ignore Rising Yields
26:48 Trump Inflation Pays Debt
28:06 Inflation Pays Debt Claim
29:02 Who Owns Inflation Blame
30:17 Bondholders Get Burned
31:20 Weekly Market Scorecard
31:49 Gold Silver Yield Paradox
34:13 Stagflation And AI Distortion
36:17 Bitcoin Strategy Stretch Update
38:35 Bond Vigilantes Take Over
40:21 Oil Reserves And Mortgage Shock
45:08 Debt Math And Crisis Setup
49:51 Midterms And Voter Reality
51:56 Buy Metals And Wrap Up

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Peter Schiff on record bond yields, a 12-year low in consumer confidence, the end of the 40-year refi era, and why gold is the last safe haven.

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Bond yields hit new highs on weak data, consumer confidence sank to a 12-year low, and Peter says the end game has arrived.

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.62% and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, two weeks after 5% was supposed to be the ceiling. What makes this week different is that bonds sold off on bad news: consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest in 12 years and below the depths of the pandemic, job openings missed, and yields rose anyway. Peter's warning is direct: if Friday's jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash. Gold's $170 drop is the market getting this backwards. Money leaving bonds ends up in gold, the last safe haven standing.

The bigger story is housing. America is now in the worst quadrant, high debt and high rates, which it has never lived through. For 40 years mortgage rates only fell, from 18% in 1981 to 2.65% in 2021, and homeowners rode that wave with serial cash-out refis that turned the house into an ATM. At 7.4% and headed past 8%, that era is over: no more refis, no cash out, no wealth effect, with homes at five times income and down payments at 13.8%. Fannie and Freddie are down 75% while the government buys more mortgage bonds. Neither party will name a cut. Every crisis Peter has warned about is converging, and he says to get your plan B in order.

Chapters:
00:00 Bond Crash Warning
01:02 Yields Surge and Mortgages
02:59 Gold Dip and Safe Haven
07:11 Weak Data Ignored
13:21 Housing Market Cracks
14:48 Password Security Ad
16:00 High Debt High Rates Era
19:17 Housing Bubble Math
23:56 Refi Boom Ends
28:24 Home Prices Next Drop
31:30 Noom Weight Loss Pitch
33:07 GSE Stocks Get Crushed
35:50 Trump Hype And Dump
39:39 PSA Or Campaign Ad
42:41 Deficits Nobody Will Cut
47:59 Affordability Promises Backfire
50:08 Socialism Messaging Trap
52:12 AI Hope Versus Debt Crisis
56:02 Fed Out Of Tricks
56:43 Prepare For The Storm
57:28 Wrap Up And Plan B

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