School of War

Major General Mick Ryan, Australian Army (retired), Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute, adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and author of the Futura Doctrina Substack joins the show to dissect the current state of the war in Iran. Is this conflict entering a postmortem phase, or are we still in the middle of it? How has America performed so far? How does this war connect to the Pacific theater? Are we adapting for a broader global conflict, and are our adversaries adapting as well?

Times:

002:20 Iran war impact on Australia

05:06 American performance in this war

06:22 Israeli partnership over NATO

08:21 Strait of Hormuz closure

13:07 Is the US prepared for a long-term war?

15:50 Importance of AI

18:17 Israeli performance

18:55 Iran frustrating US objectives

19:26 Lessons for Taiwan

20:31 Does political decapitation work?

22:41 How is the Axis learning from this conflict

25:44 China’s interest in the Middle East

29:04 Grim predictions of the road ahead

30:40 Iranian hardliners

31:16 Importance of getting the strait open

34:29 Pilot rescue mission

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Find more at The Free Press.

Aviv Shapira, the co-founder and CEO of XTEND, joins the show to discuss his journey from competitive drone racing to building groundbreaking defense technology. How are drone swarms changing warfare? What are the ethical implications of AI weaponry? What happens if this technology falls into the wrong hands? And what comes next?

01:58 Aviv’s background04:46 Replay technologies08:28 VR Messi08:58 Xtend description09:55 Drone racing12:56 Headset importance14:13 Ender’s Game17:02 AI drones21:34 Tunnel warfare27:11 Diversity of drone needs30:41 Drone swarms34:16 Human machine teaming37:10 Rule of three41:52 Ethical questions44:11 Future of munitions45:26 Xtend business model49:23 Future of this technology52:22 Tech in enemy hands

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Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins the show once again to discuss the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz imposed by United States Central Command. How might this blockade unfold? Is it a tactic to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, or a step that risks igniting a new wave of conflict? We do not know how this game will end, but one thing is certain: The entire world is watching this critical waterway. 

03:13 How is the blockade functioning

08:52 Trump’s messaging

10:54 Blockade is negotiating tactic

11:40 Carrier strike groups

12:12 The U.S. Navy’s run through the strait

12:39 Iranian mines

15:09 The Islamabad process

17:50 American convoying

20:01 Iranian shadow fleet

21:25 Potential blockade tactics

23:20 Boarding vessels

26:54 Merchant marine involvement

28:34 The China factor 

33:08  Economic game of chicken

38:26 A return to violence

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General Michael Claesson is Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff and Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. How did Russia’s annexation of Crimea change Sweden’s global strategy? Is Russia weaker than it appears? How strong is the American alliance with Europe? With the tectonic plates of war shifting beneath our feet, the stakes are high and the future of NATO hangs in the balance.

Times:

02:46 Swedish view of the world

04:19 Crimea annexation

08:50 Geopolitical logic of joining NATO

10:10 Military background

13:48 The war in Ukraine

17:53 Lessons from the American Civil War

19:40 Drone combat

25:09 Command versus autonomy

27:09 European defense against Russia

33:14 Contested Kaliningrad

36:00 Russia’s vulnerabilities

37:19 Russia’s greyzone warfare

41:11 Europe’s role in global security

44:26 American and European alliance

45:00 The case for NATO

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Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, joins Aaron to discuss the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. What are the fears surrounding the  talks? Where are the two sides close on the proposed ceasefire, and where are they miles apart? What should we look for to indicate how the talks are going? Looming over everything is the question of whether the negotiating table can, at times, be more dangerous than the battlefield.

Times:

02:03 Nature of the ceasefire

04:22 Do we have the upper hand?

08:04 Trump vs. Iranian trap

09:31 Iran’s fragile position

11:49 Broader American strategy

14:59 Negotiation demands

18:57 Lebanon factor

22:48 Who is Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf?

27:45 J.D. Vance’s analogy

30:44 Strait of Hormuz

33:03 Recession fears

36:29 Hormuz circumvention

38:05 Battle for Hormuz

39:00 Global chokepoint lessons

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