Doom Debates

I joined Steve Bannon’s War Room Battleground to talk about AI doom.
Hosted by Joe Allen, we cover AGI timelines, raising kids with a high p(doom), and why improving our survival odds requires a global wake-up call.
00:00:00 — Episode Preview
00:01:17 — Joe Allen opens the show and introduces Liron Shapira
00:04:06 — Liron: What’s Your P(Doom)?
00:05:37 — How Would an AI Take Over?
00:07:20 — The Timeline to AGI
00:08:17 — Benchmarks & AI Passing the Turing Test
00:14:43 — Liron Is Typically a Techno-Optimist
00:18:00 — Raising a Family with a High P(Doom)
00:23:48 — Mobilizing a Grassroots AI Survival Campaign
00:26:45 — Final Message: A Wake-Up Call
00:29:23 — Joe Allen’s Closing Message to the War Room Posse
Links:
Joe’s Substack — https://substack.com/@joebot
Joe’s Twitter — https://x.com/JOEBOTxyz
Bannon’s War Room Twitter — https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom
WarRoom Battleground EP 922: AI Doom Debates with Liron Shapira on Rumble — https://rumble.com/v742oo4-warroom-battleground-ep-922-ai-doom-debates-with-liron-shapira.html
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Economist Noah Smith is the author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.
Far from worrying about human extinction from superintelligent AI, Noah is optimistic AI will create a world where humans still have plentiful, high-paying jobs!
In this debate, I stress-test his rosy outlook. Let’s see if Noah can instill us with more confidence about humanity’s rapidly approaching AI future.
Timestamps
00:00:00 - Episode Preview
00:01:41 - Introducing Noah Smith
00:03:19 - What’s Your P(Doom)™
00:04:40 - Good vs. Bad Transhumanist Outcomes
00:15:17 - Catastrophe vs. Total Extinction
00:17:15 - Mechanisms of Doom
00:27:16 - The AI Persuasion Risk
00:36:20 - Instrumental Convergence vs. Peace
00:53:08 - The “One AI” Breakout Scenario
01:01:18 - The “Stoner AI” Theory
01:08:49 - Importance of Reflective Stability
01:14:50 - Orthogonality & The Waymo Argument
01:21:18 - Comparative Advantage & Jobs
01:27:43 - Wealth Distribution & Robot Lords
01:34:34 - Supply Curves & Resource Constraints
01:43:38 - Policy of Reserving Human Resources
01:48:28 - Closing: The Case for Optimism
Links
Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog
“Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the
“My thoughts on AI safety” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/my-thoughts-on-ai-safety
Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion
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Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

In September of 2023, when OpenAI’s GPT-4 was still a fresh innovation and people were just beginning to wrap their heads around large language models, I was invited to debate Beff Jezos, Bayeslord, and other prominent “effective accelerationists” a.k.a. “e/acc” folks on an X Space.
E/acc’s think building artificial superintelligence is unlikely to disempower humanity and doom the future, because that’d be an illegal exception to the rule that accelerating new technology is always the highest-expected-value for humanity.
As you know, I disagree — I think doom is extremely likely and imminent possibility.
This debate took place 9 months before I started Doom Debates, and was one of the experiences that made me realize debating AI doom was my calling. It’s also the only time Beff Jezos has ever not been too chicken to debate me.

Timestamps
00:00:00 — Liron’s New Intro
00:04:15 — Debate Starts Here: Litigating FOOM
00:06:18 — Defining the Recursive Feedback Loop
00:15:05 — The Two-Part Doomer Thesis
00:26:00 — When Does a Tool Become an Agent?
00:44:02 — The Argument for Convergent Architecture
00:46:20 — Mathematical Objections: Ergodicity and Eigenvalues
01:03:46 — Bayeslord Enters: Why Speed Doesn’t Matter
01:12:40 — Beff Jezos Enters: Physical Priors vs. Internet Data
01:13:49 — The 5% Probability of Doom by GPT-5
01:20:09 — Chaos Theory and Prediction Limits
01:27:56 — Algorithms vs. Hardware Constraints
01:35:20 — Galactic Resources vs. Human Extermination
01:54:13 — The Intelligence Bootstrapping Script Scenario
02:02:13 — The 10-Megabyte AI Virus Debate
02:11:54 — The Nuclear Analogy: Noise Canceling vs. Rubble
02:37:39 — Controlling Intelligence: The Roman Empire Analogy
02:44:53 — Real-World Latency and API Rate Limits
03:03:11 — The Difficulty of the Off Button
03:24:47 — Why Liron is “e/acc at Heart”

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏



Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

AGI timelines, offense/defense balance, evolution vs engineering, how to lower P(Doom), Eliezer Yudkowksy, and much more!
Timestamps:
00:00 Trailer
03:10 Is My P(Doom) Lowering?
11:29 First Caller: AI Offense vs Defense Balance
16:50 Superintelligence Skepticism
25:05 Agency and AI Goals
29:06 Communicating AI Risk
36:35 Attack vs Defense Equilibrium
38:22 Can We Solve Outer Alignment?
54:47 What is Your P(Pocket Nukes)?
1:00:05 The “Shoggoth” Metaphor Is Outdated
1:06:23 Should I Reframe the P(Doom) Question?
1:12:22 How YOU Can Make a Difference
1:24:43 Can AGI Beat Biology?
1:39:22 Agency and Convergent Goals
1:59:56 Viewer Poll: What Content Should I Make?
2:26:15 AI Warning Shots
2:32:12 More Listener Questions: Debate Tactics, Getting a PhD, Specificity
2:53:53 Closing Thoughts
Links:
Support PauseAI — https://pauseai.info/
Support PauseAI US — https://www.pauseai-us.org/
Support LessWrong / Lightcone Infrastructure — LessWrong is fundraising!
Support MIRI — MIRI’s 2025 Fundraiser
About the show:
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Devin Elliot is a former pro snowboarder turned software engineer who has logged thousands of hours building AI systems. His P(Doom) is a flat ⚫. He argues that worrying about an AI takeover is as irrational as fearing your car will sprout wings and fly away.
We spar over the hard limits of current models: Devin insists LLMs are hitting a wall, relying entirely on external software “wrappers” to feign intelligence. I push back, arguing that raw models are already demonstrating native reasoning and algorithmic capabilities.
Devin also argues for decentralization by claiming that nuclear proliferation is safer than centralized control.
We end on a massive timeline split: I see superintelligence in a decade, while he believes we’re a thousand years away from being able to “grow” computers that are truly intelligence.

Timestamps
00:00:00 Episode Preview
00:01:03 Intro: Snowboarder to Coder
00:03:30 "I Do Not Have a P(Doom)"
00:06:47 Nuclear Proliferation & Centralized Control
00:10:11 The "Spotify Quality" House Analogy
00:17:15 Ideal Geopolitics: Decentralized Power
00:25:22 Why AI Can't "Fly Away"
00:28:20 The Long Addition Test: Native or Tool?
00:38:26 Is Non-Determinism a Feature or a Bug?
00:52:01 The Impossibility of Mind Uploading
00:57:46 "Growing" Computers from Cells
01:02:52 Timelines: 10 Years vs. 1,000 Years
01:11:40 "Plastic Bag Ghosts" & Builder Intuition
01:13:17 Summary of the Debate
01:15:30 Closing Thoughts

Links
Devin’s Twitter — https://x.com/devinjelliot
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Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe