Property decisions today hinge on interest rates, inflation, and housing demand — but what if the traditional signals we’ve all relied on no longer give the full picture?In this episode, we sit down with Alan Oster, former Chief Economist of NAB and one of Australia’s most respected economic voices, to unpack what really matters in a housing market under stress.Alan explains why GDP, unemployment, and even consumer surveys can mislead investors, and why real-time banking data has changed the game. He shares stories from decades of forecasting — including times when the “headline” numbers pointed in the wrong direction — and highlights the three signals he believes are most useful for understanding where housing is headed.From the rental crisis to the impact of migration and state government land taxes, Alan dives into the structural pressures reshaping demand. He also addresses productivity stagnation, the future role of AI in jobs and housing, and why policy missteps continue to ripple through Australia’s economy.Whether you’re a property investor, policymaker, or simply trying to understand what’s next for interest rates and housing demand, Alan offers candid insights you won’t hear in the headlines. This episode is a rare chance to learn from the economist who has shaped Australia’s forecasting for over three decades.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction00:22 – Meet Alan Oster: NAB’s Former Chief Economist02:01 – Global Headwinds: US Politics, Tariffs & Trade03:01 – Economics as Psychology: Market Reactions Explained04:11 – Real-Time Banking Data Changes Forecasting05:12 – COVID Lessons: Spending Falls by Postcode06:30 – Hidden Stress: Households, Jobs & Policy Gaps13:49 – Australia’s Productivity Problem Unpacked15:35 – AI, Migration & the Future of Work23:36 – Property Choices: Wealth, Debt & Investor Behaviour26:10 – Land Taxes and Why Investors Are Selling27:05 – Migration, Housing Supply & the Rental Crunch28:22 – State Outlooks: Victoria, Adelaide, NSW & QLD29:05 – How Banks View Mortgages & Housing Risk31:45 – Productivity Growth Slows in Australia33:55 – Policy Fixes: Tax Reform & Build-to-Rent36:04 – Housing Market Costs, Supply & Gov’t Guarantees37:34 – Lessons from Past Crises & Recessions44:04 – Property Dumbo: Alan’s Downsizing StoryAbout the GuestAlan Oster is one of Australia’s most trusted economic forecasters, best known for his 33 years as Chief Economist at NAB. During his tenure, he built NAB’s influential Monthly Business Survey and pioneered the use of real-time banking data to track household and business behaviour — insights now shared with the RBA, ABS, and Treasury.Before joining NAB in 1992, Alan spent 15 years at Commonwealth Treasury, including four years in Paris as Australia’s representative at the OECD. Recognised as an authority on economic forecasting, monetary policy, and housing demand, he is a sought-after commentator in both public and private circles.Alan retired from NAB in 2025 but continues to share his expertise, offering a rare blend of sharp economic analysis and practical insights for policymakers, businesses, and property investors alike.Connect with AlanLinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast -
Australia