The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate

Australian property prices are often treated as a national scoreboard—up means success, down means failure.But what if that assumption is wrong? In this episode, we interrogate one of the most polarising ideas in housing today: that Australia’s obsession with ever-rising property prices is doing more harm than good.Joining Veronica and Chris is Adam Schwab, founder of Luxury Escapes and a sharp, outspoken commentator on economics, inflation, and corporate behaviour. Coming from outside the property industry, Adam brings a contrarian lens to housing—questioning whether property has become an unproductive asset, how easy credit and government incentives have distorted prices, and why policies like 5% deposit schemes may be helping vendors more than buyers.The conversation digs deep into rental yields versus capital growth, the role of the RBA in inflating asset prices, and why high house prices don’t actually benefit most owner-occupiers. Adam challenges the idea that owning property equals success, arguing that Australia’s fixation on housing is crowding out productive investment, innovation, and long-term economic resilience.This is a robust, sometimes uncomfortable discussion about incentives, risk, and who really wins when property prices keep climbing. If you care about affordability, fairness, and the future of Australia’s economy — not just short-term price movements—this episode will force you to rethink what “good” housing policy actually looks like.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction to the Episode and Guest00:56 — Adam Schwab's Contrarian Views on Property01:37 — Debating Property Prices and Investment02:49 — Renting vs. Buying: A Financial Analysis05:43 — The Impact of High Property Prices on Society19:02 — Monetary Policy and Housing Market26:50 — Reverse Mortgages and Their Implications27:32 — The 40-50 Year Loan Debate28:31 — Government Policies and Housing Market29:09 — Economic Logic vs. Political Motives29:33 — Risks of New Property Incentives31:22 — Banking System and Housing Bubble33:41 — Immigration and Housing Affordability35:28 — Leveraging and Property Investment42:20 — Comparing Property to Other Investments47:53 — Global Talent and Property Prices49:51 — Concluding Thoughts on Property MarketAbout the GuestAdam Schwab is the co-founder of Luxury Escapes, one of Australia’s most successful global travel businesses, which he helped scale into a billion-dollar brand. Beyond entrepreneurship, Adam has built a parallel career as a respected financial journalist and commentator, known for his sharp critiques of corporate behaviour, economic policy, and market incentives.He is also the co-host of The Contrarians podcast, where he regularly challenges mainstream narratives on markets, inflation, and government intervention. Unafraid to question sacred cows — including Australian property — Adam brings an outsider’s perspective grounded in economic fundamentals rather than industry orthodoxy.In this episode, Adam applies that contrarian mindset to housing, offering candid insights into why Australia’s property system rewards asset inflation over productivity, how easy credit fuels bubbles, and why policy settings may be entrenching inequality rather than solving it.Connect with AdamAdam’s LinkedIn

Understanding the Forces Shaping the Property Market in 2026

28/12/2025 | 50 mins.

As 2025 comes to a close, property headlines are once again filling with bold predictions about what 2026 will bring. But rather than playing the forecasting game, this episode takes a more grounded approach — examining the forces already in motion and how they’re likely to shape buyer, seller, and investor behaviour in the year ahead.Chris Bates and Veronica Morgan unpack what’s really driving the market right now: persistently high interest rates, fast-rising lower-quartile prices, tight rental conditions, weak construction pipelines, and a supply side that simply isn’t recovering. They explore why listings remain constrained, how first home buyer incentives and investor lending are colliding in the same price brackets, and why borrowing capacity — not confidence — is doing most of the heavy lifting.The conversation also digs into buyer fatigue versus genuine market softening, the growing influence of global uncertainty on local decision-making, and why some cities and sub-markets may actually accelerate rather than cool. Along the way, they challenge the idea that 2026 will somehow be “easier,” especially for buyers waiting for perfect clarity before acting.If you’re considering buying, selling, upgrading, or investing in the next 12–24 months, this episode offers a clear-eyed framework for thinking strategically — without hype, predictions, or false reassurance.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction: Current State of the Property Market01:04 – Factors Shaping the Market in 202601:48 – Interest Rates and Market Predictions03:59 – Regional Market Variations05:58 – Investor and First Home Buyer Dynamics16:59 – Impact of Development and Zoning Changes22:54 – Work from Home and Regional Market Trends25:15 – Helping You Make Better Property Decisions26:07 – Introduction to Property Moves and Finance26:22 – Regional Markets Post-COVID27:14 – Current Market Sentiment and Interest Rates28:52 – Generational Wealth and Property Ownership32:00 – Bank Lending and Credit Growth36:51 – Auction vs. Private Treaty Markets43:00 – Renovation Trends and Challenges45:35 – Long-Term Property Investment Strategies49:48 – Conclusion and Future EpisodesAbout the HostsChris Bates is a mortgage broker and co-founder of Alcove, working with clients across Australia to help them navigate complex property and lending decisions. Known for his data-driven approach, Chris specialises in long-term strategy, lending structures, and helping buyers avoid costly financial mistakes.Veronica Morgan is a buyer’s agent and property strategist with nearly two decades of experience advising owner-occupiers and investors. With a background in research, data analysis, and on-the-ground buying, Veronica is widely respected for cutting through market noise and focusing on fundamentals, risk, and long-term outcomes.Together, they bring a practical, evidence-based lens to Australia’s property market — challenging assumptions and unpacking what actually matters.ResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - [email protected]

In this episode, we pull back the curtain on one of the least transparent parts of Australia’s property market: sales campaign behaviour. From hidden campaign histories to shifting price guides and agent tactics designed to manufacture buyer momentum, most buyers are making six- and seven-figure decisions without the information they actually need. Today’s conversation digs into that gap — and the consequences of it.We’re joined by Henry Pedersen, co-founder and CEO of Homer, a proptech tool built to expose the data buyers never get to see. Henry walks us through what really happens behind the scenes of a sales campaign: failed auctions, withdrawn listings, guide price movements, and the patterns in agent strategy that can completely alter a buyer’s perception of value. We talk about why big data alone isn’t enough, how algorithms misread hyper-specific property nuances, and why more information doesn’t automatically mean better decisions.We also dive into the thornier realities: the structural incentives pushing agents toward underquoting, why buyers keep falling into the same traps, how state regulators are tightening their approach, and what transparency could actually look like if buyers had access to honest, unfiltered campaign histories. Henry also shares how buyer behaviour — from switching suburbs to chasing “hot” listings — is often influenced by information that’s incomplete or deliberately curated.Whether you're navigating the market for the first time, returning after a break, or advising clients professionally, this episode gives you tools to understand the battlefield. We help you recognise the signals buried inside campaign data, avoid being blindsided by agent strategy, and get clearer about where your expectations sit in the real market — not the one portrayed online. This is a must-listen for anyone tired of feeling outplayed.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction to the Hidden World of Property Market01:28 — Meet Henry Pedersen: Co-founder and CEO of Homer02:05 — The Birth of Homer: A Personal Journey02:50 — How Homer Provides Transparency in Property Data04:11 — Challenges and Insights in Property Data05:13 — The Role of Historical Data in Property Decisions06:39 — Navigating the Property Market with Homer's Tools12:23 — User Experience and Adoption of Homer14:06 — Future Developments and Features of Homer20:07 — Queensland's Unique Real Estate Law22:03 — Challenges of Property Valuation23:27 — Agent Behavior and Market Strategies25:04 — Leveraging Data for Better Decisions33:44 — AI in Real Estate35:38 — Property Dumbo Stories38:14 — Conclusion and Final ThoughtsAbout the GuestHenry Pedersen is the Co-Founder and CEO of Homer, a fast-growing proptech platform built to give Australian buyers real visibility into sales campaigns — including the data traditionally kept out of sight. With a background in data, growth strategy, and scaling marketplace businesses globally, Henry brings an outside-the-industry lens to one of real estate’s most persistent problems: information asymmetry.Prior to joining Homer, Henry worked in international markets building large-scale automotive data platforms, helping bring structure and transparency to vehicle marketplaces across Australia and the UK. His personal experience navigating Sydney’s overheated 2021 market led him to confront the frustrations buyers face: shifting price guides, opaque campaign histories, and the sheer workload required to track property activity manually.At Homer, Henry focuses on surfacing patterns in agent behaviour, guide-to-sale accuracy, campaign timelines, and other hidden indicators that shape buyer outcomes. His mission is simple: equip everyday Australians with the information professionals use —...

Australia’s housing market is creaking under pressure — record-low affordability, rising lower-end prices, and policies that keep boosting demand instead of easing it. In this episode, Cotality’s Head of Research Eliza Owen helps us zoom out and make sense of the contradictions shaping today’s market.We unpack why “years to save a 20% deposit” is the wrong metric, why income — not deposits — is the real barrier, and how the 5% deposit scheme pushes prices up by funnelling demand under strict caps. Eliza also breaks down the mismatch between the homes we build and how Australians actually live, alongside the collapse in turnover rates that concentrates buying power among wealthier households.If you want a clear, data-led look at what’s really driving the crisis — and why prices keep rising even as affordability falls apart — this conversation cuts through the noise.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction and Overview of Australia's Housing Market02:18 — Government Incentives and Their Impact04:17 — Challenges in Housing Affordability10:16 — Policy Measures and Their Effects12:18 — Affordability and Market Trends17:55 — Turnover Rates and Market Stability22:20 — The Case for Replacing Stamp Duty with Land Tax25:28 — Mismatch in Housing Supply and Demand28:19 — Challenges in the Rental Market31:38 — Eliza's Departure and Reflections34:42 — Global Perspectives on Housing Markets38:51 — Affordability Metrics and Policy42:33 — Underquoting and Auction Dynamics43:36 — Conclusion and Listener EngagementAbout the GuestEliza Owen is the Head of Research at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), where she leads national market intelligence and economic analysis across Australia’s property sector. Appointed in 2020, she brings more than a decade of expertise in affordability metrics, credit conditions, lending environments, and the economic pressures shaping housing performance.Eliza has guided industry leaders through some of the most pivotal moments in recent history — from the volatility of COVID-era markets to the rapid rate-hike cycle and today’s affordability crisis. Her work helps governments, banks, and real estate professionals understand the shifting forces impacting buyers, sellers, and renters, using rigorous data to illuminate what’s really happening beneath the headlines.A sought-after keynote speaker and trusted media commentator, she has presented to thousands across real estate, construction, banking, and finance, translating complex economics into clear, practical insights. Passionate about demystifying housing data, Eliza is recognised for storytelling that cuts through complexity and empowers Australians to make smarter, evidence-based decisions in an increasingly strained housing landscape.Connect with ElizaEliza’s LinkedInCotality Australia’s LinkedInCotality Australia’s WebsiteCotality Australia’s Facebook PageCotality Australia’s InstagramResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast -

2026 is shaping up as a year of subtle indicators and big risks, and Louis Christopher breaks down the data points seasoned investors should be paying attention to right now.In this episode, Louis joins Veronica and Chris just days after releasing the 2026 edition to unpack the findings that matter most: population growth moderating sharply, supply finally catching up in pockets, and why rental pressure may ease before prices do. And, critically, he reveals the assumptions his modelling rests on — and the risks that could topple them.Louis walks us through the four core scenarios underpinning his 2026 outlook, including the one that unexpectedly took the lead in 2025, and the one he now believes may need a late addendum as sticky inflation raises the odds of a surprise rate hike. From unemployment edging toward 5%, to small business stress, to shifts in interstate migration, Louis explains how these macro levers shape the micro realities buyers and investors experience on the ground.We also zoom into the markets that defied expectations in 2025 — including Darwin’s explosive rebound and the Gold Coast’s continued growth despite being fundamentally overvalued. Louis breaks down why listings data is flashing one message, why developers are building for the wrong demographic, and where supply bottlenecks could turn into oversupply shocks by 2027. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain the nation’s top performers, but Louis outlines exactly what conditions would need to change for any of them to lose steam.This conversation is packed with uncomfortable truths, grounded forecasts, and the kind of nuance you only get from someone who has studied the data for over two decades. Whether you’re trying to time a purchase, expand a portfolio, or simply understand where the market is heading next, Louis’ insights offer the clarity — and the caution — needed to navigate 2026 with your eyes open.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook01:11 – Louis Christopher's Forecasting Approach02:18 – Reviewing the 2025 Predictions05:38 – Key Assumptions for 202607:53 – Interest Rate Scenarios for 202610:52 – Gold Coast Market Analysis15:14 – Darwin Market Insights18:56 – Structural Changes in Listings21:58 – Impact of High Transaction Costs on Listings23:12 – Market Dynamics in Different Cities25:10 – Investor Behavior and Market Trends26:42 – Rental Yields and Property Taxes28:49 – Interstate Investment Trends32:27 – Adelaide's Surprising Economic Resilience34:19 – Construction Costs and Housing Prices37:07 – Key Indicators for 2026 Market PredictionsAbout the GuestLouis Christopher is one of Australia’s most respected and closely watched housing market analysts. As the founder of SQM Research, he has spent nearly two decades building some of the country’s most trusted property indexes, data series, and market forecasts. Before establishing SQM in 2006, Louis served as Head of Research and General Manager at Australian Property Monitors, where his work informed Reserve Bank analysis and shaped national housing insights.With a background spanning technical market analysis, index construction, and independent forecasting, Louis has earned a reputation for calling turning points early — and for openly grading his own predictions each year. His annual Boom & Bust Report is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most transparent property forecasts, dissecting the interplay between population trends, supply pipelines, interest rates, and economic conditions.Louis is known for his no-nonsense approach, his statistical discipline, and his ability to explain complex market dynamics with clarity and precision. For investors, buyers and industry practitioners, his work offers a rare blend of independence,...