NAB Morning Call

Friday 11th September 2026

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At a press conference overnight ECB’s Christine Lagarde said it was a ‘no brainer’ to lift rates, given the inflation pressures and a resilient economy. More is expected according to NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. They discuss the two big moves overnight - oil prices, now well beyond $100 a barrel - and the continued rise in bond yields, with 10 year treasuries rising by 11 basis points and 30 years hitting the highest level since 2007. With no obvious driver in the day’s news flow Skye wonders whether a chunk of the moves can be put down to positioning. There will be a lot of focus on today’s moves, particularly ahead of US CPI, out tonight.
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Thursday 10th September 2026

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Oil prices rose further overnight as Iran fired at US navy vessels, forcing counter attacks from both sides. One Iranian official described it as an existential fight for survival for which there is no backing down. Bond yields rose sharply in the US and Europe overnight, despite Scott Bessen t’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback in 10–20-year bonds. NAB’s Sally Auld says yields rose because the size of the buyback was less than expected, whilst the same factors remain to push yields higher, including the level of debt and the competition from bond issuance from AI companies who continue to up their spending. Tonight the ECB is expected to lift rates, as markets prepare for US CPI tomorrow, with PPI data out tonight.
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Wednesday 9th September 2026

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Oil is higher because more is happening in the Middle East. That’s adding to inflation concerns. There are tensions elsewhere too- between the US and Israel (Israel has closed a UK consulate in East Jerusalem), and between the US and Canada with Canada imposing tit for tat tariffs, whilst promising closer ties with Europe. Locally the NAB Business Survey showed a move down in confidence, as did the Westpac consumer survey. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much falling house prices had to play in both those results.
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Tuesday 8th September 2026

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Trade was thin overnight with the US on holiday, but the Yen pushed to its highest level since February, beating the US-Japan coordinated attempt to push it higher in late July. NAB’s Gavin friend says markets are assuming the BoJ will do the right thing, which would make the Yen seem undervalued. Oil is higher and could easily nudge over US$100 for Brent over the next day or two. Copper also hit a high as demand continues to outstrip supply, and traders buy ahead for fear of US tariffs coming to fruition. Today there’s a lot to focus on locally, including two interviews with RBA speakers, the NAB Business Survey and Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment report.
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Monday 7th September 2026

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Non-farm payrolls numbers in the US on Friday were strong, including an upward revision to the previous two months. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it is difficult to argue against the idea the labour market there is in particularly good health. That removes one reason for the Fed not to lift rates next week, so everything now rests on the CPI and PPI data this week. The US president meanwhile argues that the Fed should be taking rates to the lowest in the world, whilst threatening to stop trade with any country they have a trade deficit with. Oil moved higher on Friday and could easily top $100 this week as tensions heighten in the Gulf, despite Presidential claims that oil traffic is close to pre-war levels.
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