NAB Morning Call

Thursday 30th April 2026

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Oil continues to lurch higher, getting close to $120 this session, the highest since the closure of the Hormuz Strait. There’re no signs of progress, infact President Trump is indicating he’d prefer to wait until his blockade has an impact on Iran. That could take some time. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates on hold in Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair, with a divided board. Several objected to the neutral tone of the guidance, which suggested the next move is more likely to be down that up. Meanwhile Powell announced he will stay as a Governor for now. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss this, also a dovish hold from the bank of Canada, and a look ahead to the ECB and Bank of Enfgland. Sand don’t forget the mega-cap earnings coming up.
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Wednesday 29th April 2026

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Markets are wobbling, oil is surging, and the world’s central banks are lining up for a big week — but nothing is quite behaving the way you’d expect. Today Phil and NAB’s Sally Auld unpack why oil keeps climbing even as the UAE walks out of OPEC, how OpenAI’s internal stumbles have rattled global equities, and why consumer confidence is mysteriously improving just as fuel prices bite. We’ll dig into the Bank of Japan’s split decision, the jump in euro‑area inflation expectations, and what Australia’s CPI means when “core” no longer tells the whole story. And what to watch as the Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE all step up this week.
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Tuesday 28th April 2026

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Its another session where equities are rising – albeit only slightly – whilst oil pushes higher. Talks between the US and Iran are not progressing, with the US President suggesting Tehran calls him when they have something to discuss. Meanwhile the Straits of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping. It’s in this environment that all central banks this week – the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the Fed and the ECB, are expected to keep rates on hold. Yet UK bond yields have risen more than most overnight, NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why. Plus, a busy week for earnings, with most of the major tech players reporting.
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Friday 22nd April 2026

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Kylie Willment, Chief Investment Officer at Mercer, joins Phil Dobbie to explain why their core investment strategy remains sound even as the global landscape becomes increasingly volatile. While Willment emphasizes that their fundamental long-term approach is right, she discusses the necessary "adjustments at the margin" being made to navigate current geopolitical firestorms and the shift toward "just-in-case" economic resilience. The discussion highlights that private and overseas investments remain valid and essential components of a modern portfolio, provided they are backed by rigorous asset-level research and robust protections against persistent inflation risk. From the "massive tailwind" from the energy transition to the relative insulation of the U.S. economy, Willment provides a deep dive into how super funds are evolving to protect member returns in a "messier" era for central banks and global trade.
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Friday 24th April 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss a significant escalation in the U.S. naval blockade, which has now expanded into the Indian Ocean with the seizure of tankers carrying Iranian oil. This move follows the earlier strikes in the Gulf and indicates a broadening of the conflict's reach, which has seen S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower, and oil prices pushing higher, The discussion also highlights a stark economic divergence reflected in the latest Flash PMIs: while the U.S. continues to show resilience with both manufacturing and services remaining above 50, the Eurozone and UK have slumped deeper into contractionary territory.
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