NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 17th February 2026

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Trading was thin with holidays in the US and Asia on Monday, but there was still data around. NAB’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about jittery GDP figures from Japan and the mixed industrial signals coming out of Europe. They also weigh up the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, which shows high investor optimism despite a lack of downside protection, and touch on why geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices.
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Monday 16th February 2026

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Phil catches up with NAB’s Ken Crompton to break down the fallout from a cooler-than-expected 0.2% US inflation print, which sent bond yields tumbling and left the US 2-year yield at its lowest level since mid-2022. They dig into the reality of the Fed’s waiting game, the New York Fed data showing that US consumers and firms are footing 90% of the tariff bill, and why the "AI vigilantes" are continuing to eye tech stocks with a bit more scepticism. From the Bank of England’s internal split over rate hikes to a busy week ahead featuring Japan's Q4 GDP and fresh inflation numbers from the UK and Canada, it’s a deep dive into whether the global disinflation trend is truly taking hold or hitting a snag.
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Friday 13th February 2026

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Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside.
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Friday 13th February 2026

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US markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software-sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. And with US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill.
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Thursday 12th February 2026

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A surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast.
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