NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd April 2026

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In the April 22, 2026, edition of the NAB Morning Call, Gavin Friend joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a shift toward "risk-off" sentiment as the high-stakes peace talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to have stalled. With JD Vance spotted back in Washington rather than at the negotiating table in Islamabad, and Iran officially declining to attend today's scheduled meeting, the market is bracing for the end of the ceasefire deadline tonight. The conversation highlights a jump in oil prices, with Brent crude nearly touching $100 a barrel, alongside a rise in bond yields and the U.S. Dollar. Beyond the conflict, they break down robust U.S. retail sales for March, a surprising drop in UK unemployment to 4.9%, and Kevin Warsh’s testimony before the Senate, where he staunchly defended the Fed's independence, saying he is no sock puppet to the President.
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Tuesday 21st April 2026

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Geopolitical tensions are rising again, following a U.S. attack on an Iranian merchant vessel in the Gulf, which sent oil prices jumping 5–6% with Brent nearing $95 a barrel. While JD Vance leads a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for high-stakes peace talks, a question remains as to whether Tehran will participate. Kevin Warsh’s pre-prepared speech to the senate banking committee spoke of a continuance of monetary policy free from the control of government. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through all this with Phil, plus Canadian CPI, and the significance of tonight’s US retail sales numbers.
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Monday 20th April 2026

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There were strong risk-on moves on Friday on the news that the Hormuz Strait had reopened. Since then, Iran has fired on vessels, and the Straits have closed again. But new talks are on the horizon if, as NAB’s Sally Auld puts it, they show up. The ceasefire officially ends Wednesday but markets aren’t pricing for President Trump’s threat to take out all energy plants and bridges Sally talks about how central banks are viewing the conflict and looks ahead to today’s CPI for Canada.
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Friday 17th April 2026

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, veteran macroeconomist Phil Suttle joins Phil Dobbie to dissect the "unbridled enthusiasm" of global markets as they seemingly look past a U.S. naval blockade and a precarious energy crisis to push the S&P 500 to new record highs. Suttle warns of a stark internal divergence within the U.S. economy, where a concentrated investment boom in AI and tech masks the reality of flat real disposable income for the average household. The conversation traverses the globe, examining the strategic "payoff" of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the structural hurdles stifling European productivity. Central to the discussion is the "Mike Tyson" moment for central bankers—dealing with the reality of being "hit in the mouth" by supply shocks—as they weigh the necessity of "nipping inflation in the bud" against a world transitioning from "just-in-time" efficiency to a high-cost era of building buffers and resilience.
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Friday 17th April 2026

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There are mixed messages about where the war in Iran is heading. President Trump says a deal is close and that Iran has agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, whilst Arab and European leaders believe it could take six months to reach a deal, hence yesterday’s Beige Book suggested companies were pursuing a wait and see strategy, holding off on major investments. Yet the Philly Fed manufacturing index overnight surged to 26.7 and initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 207,000. China’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, despite weaker activity data for March, and there was an upward revision to Eurozone inflation. Again, mixed messages.
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