NAB Morning Call

Friday 21st February 2026

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In this weekend’s podcast, Dr. Blair Chapman, Senior Economist at SEEK, previews the upcoming SEEK AI Gauge Report, highlighting that while overall job ad volumes have recently declined, demand for AI-specific skills is surging. Chapman notes a "broadening" of AI demand beyond the technical IT sector into fields like marketing and content creation, where approximately one in 20 ads now request AI proficiency. While the podcast addresses common fears of job displacement, particularly in entry-level white-collar roles, Chapman emphasizes that AI is currently augmenting rather than replacing most positions and creating new specialized roles such as AI ethics officers and AI content trainers. Ultimately, the discussion suggests that "AI fluency" is becoming a baseline requirement across the Australian workforce to drive productivity and navigate the evolving labour market.
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Friday 20th February 2026

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Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, reinforcing the case for a potential RBA rate hike in May as the labour market remains tighter than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged above $71.80 a barrel as the U.S. bolsters its air power in the Middle East to levels not seen since 2003, creating a volatile backdrop of geopolitical risk. While the U.S. continues to show economic resilience with a strong labor market, a record-high trade deficit and cautious outlooks from major retailers like Walmart are tempering global market optimism. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the overnight market news.
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Thursday 19th February 2026

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Things are heating up in the Middle East, with Iran getting itself ready in case talks fail. As a result oil prices have moved up sharply, with Brent back over $70 a barrel. While the geopolitical scene is tense, tech stocks are bouncing back, perhaps using a set of moderately optimistic second-tier data as the reason. Meanwhile NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through UK inflatioin, which has cooled to 3%, and Aussie wages holding steady at 3.4%. Australian employment numbers are out today and, to top it all off, the tech world is bracing for Mark Zuckerberg’s landmark testimony on whether Meta’s algorithms are intentionally addictive—an outcome that could have a big impact on share prices. Gavin also manages to sneek in the FOMC minutes, just released.
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Wednesday 18th February 2026

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A choppy session for equities, bonds and energy, as Iran went from powder keg to hopes of peace. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the talks have a long way to go and oil is still well down despite the switch in sentiment. Phil and Rodrigo also break down the pound’s 0.6% slide following a rise in UK unemployment to 5.2% and they dive into the RBA’s latest minutes, which showed a hold was given consideration. There’s also discussion on Canada’s "slow grind" disinflation and a look ahead to today’s Australian Wage Price Index and the RBNZ rate decision.
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Tuesday 17th February 2026

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Trading was thin with holidays in the US and Asia on Monday, but there was still data around. NAB’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about jittery GDP figures from Japan and the mixed industrial signals coming out of Europe. They also weigh up the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, which shows high investor optimism despite a lack of downside protection, and touch on why geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices.
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