NAB Morning Call

• Weekend Edition: View from the floor

  Friday 12th December 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB’s trading division, headed by Tim McCaughey, facilitates trades requested by a range of clients, from hedge funds, through to corporates and pension funds. So how does it work? Tim says it works like a grocery store - they buy the goods, add a margin and sell on. Except its not a grocery store, its trading rooms in Australia, London, New York and Asia. But just like a retailer, the secret is knowing what to buy, how to price it and how long to hang onto it.Phil tries to pry into how Tim and his team balance the risk in all this buying and selling, how the liquidity is managed, and the role of AI and algorithms in today’s trading environment. And has President Trump been good or bad for traders? Tim talks us through how things went on Liberation Day.A fascinating chat, even if Tim refuses to give away the contents of his secret sauce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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• Yields fall with Aussie jobs slide

  Friday 12th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralian government bond yields have been surging to multi year highs as speculation mounts about a rate rise early in the new year. But yields fell a little yesterday and overnight after weaker jobs numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields have fallen more widely as a response to the FOMC meeting yesterday, with questions about whether we will only see one cut next year. The US trade deficit fell again - is this a sign President Trump’s policies are working? At zero percent, the Swiss Bank decided they can’t go any lower. And UK GDP is out today - will it be as gloomy as an English winter’s day? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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• Divided they cut

  Thursday 11th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary? The Bank of Canada left rates on hold, whilst Christine Lagarde suggested that growth forecasts in Europe might be revised up. Sally suggests all three central banks could be reaching the end of their easing cycle, if they are not there already. Today, Australia’s employment numbers will be a focus, with trade data for Canada and the US still hopelessly out of date. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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• Is February in the running for an RBA hike?

  Wednesday 10th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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• The only way is up

  Tuesday 9th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA meets today — no big moves expected, but markets are watching closely for hints about when rates might rise. Over in Europe, bond yields climbed after an ECB policymaker signalled that the era of easing is over and the next direction is up. Meanwhile in the U.S., policy rates are still falling — though the debate is how far they’ll go. Even Kevin Hassett, tipped as Trump’s likely pick for the Fed, is cautioning against too many cuts next year. And don’t forget today’s NAB business survey: it could reveal fresh insights on capacity utilization, the very metric that rattled the RBA last time. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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