NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 27th May 2026

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Despite ongoing optimism around a potential peace deal, the U.S. literally "fired up" tensions by launching missile strikes against targets in southern Iran and mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. That sent Brent Crude prices highr, back over $100, whilst WTI fell. It was a session filled with divisions: U.S. Treasury yields fell 6 basis points and tech stocks rallied, while European yields climbed and its major indices retreated. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its more to do with who’s been on holiday on Monday rather than any significant geographic divide. Today the focus will be on Australia’s CPI and a speech by the RBA’s Carolyn Hewson.
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Tuesday 26th May 2026

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Phil is joined by NAB’s Ken Crompton to discuss how global markets are holding onto optimism despite Donald Trump shifting his rhetoric, stating he will only settle for a "great deal or no deal at all" regarding Iran. Despite thin holiday trading with the US and UK closed, equity markets rallied to new records—with Japan's Nikkei jumping 2.9% and the Dax rising 2%—while Brent crude plunged 7% to just over $96 a barrel. Ken explains that while sentiment remains supported by a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension and plans to gradually normalize shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, key hurdles remain; Iran is currently making any final agreement conditional on China taking custody of its nuclear material, all while its central bank governor negotiates in Doha to unfreeze frozen assets. This fragile progress left the Australian dollar as the session's biggest major currency mover, climbing 0.7% to 71.8 US cents as traders await the full return of global desks.
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Monday 25th May 2026

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diplomatic signals from the U.S. and Iran. While Donald Trump and Marco Rubio teased an imminent breakthrough that briefly sent Bitcoin surging 2%, the administration subsequently walked back the timeline, advising negotiators "not to rush". Ray notes that while both sides have reportedly softened their unrealistic demands—such as Iran dropping shipping toll requirements and the U.S. easing off proxy funding restrictions—the immediate reality points toward a mere 60-day ceasefire extension rather than a comprehensive resolution. Meanwhile, a single Iraqi crude supertanker successfully traversed the closed Strait of Hormuz, but with global inflation pressures mounting, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a tough call on rate paths, keeping the global economy in a state of tentative, risk-sensitive suspense.
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Friday 23rd May 2026

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This week Phil sits down with NAB’s Gareth Spence and JBWere’s Glen Bertram to unpack the ramifications of the federal budget's aggressive pivot away from established property tax incentives. The panel deconstructs how ditching the 50% capital gains tax discount in favour of a cost-base indexation system, paired with a new 30% minimum tax rate, rewrites the wealth creation playbook for Australian property investors. What impact does limiting negative gearing to new builds have on the pricing and rental yields of established dwellings? Will the changes shift investment away from property – even more money going into super, for example? More importantly, will the impacts be as profound as many are making out?
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Friday 22nd May 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton discusses the unexpected softening in the Australian labour market, where the unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% alongside a loss of 19,000 jobs. Ken points out that this surprising shift shows firms are pausing hiring plans due to global headwinds and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. While U.S. markets showed some resilience on the back of tech earnings, Europe faces deep contractionary pressures with manufacturing and services data turning weak. This sudden domestic downturn removes the immediate urgency for the RBA to lift interest rates again, pushing market expectations for the next potential hike out to August.
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