NAB Morning Call

Friday 19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents. Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seem to be heading to the end of the year on a fairly steady note, with currencies little changed today and equities pushing higher . Bond yields are mixed, oil is nudging back above $60 a barrel, and silver’s up and down like a yo‑yo.For our final morning edition of the year, NAB’s Gavin Friend joins us from London to unpack the latest central bank moves: the Bank of England’s razor‑thin vote to cut rates, the ECB holding firm, and the Bank of Japan poised to lift rates to their highest since 1995. We also touch on Norges Bank and the Riksbank staying put, US inflation data and jobless claims, and a surprisingly strong GDP print out of New Zealand.Plenty to chew over before the Christmas break — from hawkish cuts to resilient economies, and what it all means for the Fed, fiscal policy, and the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA new rate call from NAB: the RBA will move rates higher twice in the first half of next year. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent before they dissect the latest non‑farm payrolls data from the US for October and November. Plus, the mixed picture in the latest global PMIs. The surprise outsider was the UK, the only place to show an improvement in services and manufacturing numbers. That’s not going to stop the Bank of England, though, which is expected to cut rates this week. We are a day away from the central bank deluge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect. Japan, on the other hand, looks brighter: the Tankan survey beat expectations, strengthening the case for a rate hike later this week. Meanwhile, Europe’s industrial production is picking up and Canada surprised with outright deflation in November.Today the focus is on the late running US jobs data for November – finally something up to date, although we’ll have to guess what happened in October. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.