NAB Morning Call

Thursday 25th June 2026

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Oil prices are tumbling, with Brent crude hitting a fresh low near $73 a barrel,, taking significant pressure off global inflation hedges and pushing 10 year Treasury yields down 9 basis points. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld look at how this commodity slide is reshaping central bank expectations, highlighted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Squawk Box interview where he likened the current tech-driven productivity wave to Alan Greenspan’s 1997 "one tap on the brakes" template, suggesting the Fed may only need one more rate hike, together with his dislike of the Fed's dot plot altogether. Closer to home, attention wraps firmly around yesterday’s Australian CPI print, which cooled on the headline thanks to falling pump prices; however, Sally flags that a peek under the hood reveals a stickier story, with trimmed-mean inflation tracking at 3.6% as local homebuilders and restaurants pass mounting material and input costs on to consumers. Aussie employment data will be watched keenly to see whether last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was a one-off, but isn’t expected to change the RBA’s outlook for interest rates. On that, ‘they’re done’ says Sally.
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Wednesday 24th June 2026

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There have been big global move down in equities yesterday and that continued overnight. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this risk-off mood. There’s no clear trigger except shares rose quickly last week. The Iran situation certainly wasn’t responsible after another day with more ships leaving the Strait and oil prices continuing to fall. But why has the Aussie dollar taken such a big hit? They also discuss yesterday’s PMIs and look ahead to today’s Australian inflation numbers.
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Tuesday 23rd June 2026

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You might expect that as oil prices fall and the potential for economic growth resumes, big tech would be riding the wave. But, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains today, US share indices have been driven down by two falls in two giants – SpaceX is own over 12% and Alphabet lost 6% at one stage, each for very different reasons. Meanwhile the resignation of the UK Prime Minister barely registered on markets. Canadian inflation ticked up a little but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for the Bank of Canada. Today, PMIs for Australia, Japan, the Euro Area, the UK and the US. And a 30 second eulogy for former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, who died yesterday.
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Monday 20th June 2026

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With the US closed for business on Friday what market action there was largely driven by geopolitics. Peace talks in Switzerland start on shaky ground with question marks over whether Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has turned up the rhetoric, but it could just be another chapter from Art of the Deal. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s likely that the risk sentiment from last week could take a backward step today. Also today, its possible Keir Starmer will announce his plans to step aside as the UK performs its own self-induced regime change. A busy week ahead for Australian data include May’s CPI, employment numbers, job vacancies and household spending. Plus, US PCE deflator on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (for now).
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Friday 19th June 2026

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Is the Australian property market running out of puff, or are we just seeing the first ripples of a dramatic regulatory shake-up? Phil sits down with Cotality’s head of Australian research, Gerard Burg, to dig into whether the federal government’s newly minted tax overhauls for established dwellings are actively driving investors away. They break down a highly unusual shift in local listings where properties are sitting on the market far longer, signaling a slow rebalancing of supply and demand that actually predates the budget. From the roaring lifestyle market in Hobart to stark upper-quartile property slides in Sydney, this episode uncovers why first-home buyers are getting squeezed the hardest by compounding RBA interest rate hikes. Plus, they explore a looming structural nightmare: why the massive 36% post-pandemic spike in construction costs and the approaching 2032 Brisbane Olympics are set to derail the government’s ambitious target of building 1.2 million homes. Tune in to find out if the golden era of hands-off property speculation is officially behind us, and whether, as a positive, tax changes will finally push Aussie wealth into more productive areas of the economy.
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