NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 14th July 2026

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At his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Kevin Warsh vowed to make today’s elevated inflation ‘a thing of the past’, whilst warning that softer inflation numbers overnight should not be seen as ‘mission accomplished’. NAB’s Skye Masters tells Phil that, even though expectations for a July rate hike have lessened, markets are still pricing in more than one this year. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and US bank earnings, and the President’s reversal on a 20% levy on goods passing through the Strait. But with tensions not easing, oil continues to rise in price. A busy day today as well with data from China, US, Europe and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada.
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Tuesday 14th July 2026

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President Trump posted overnight that the US would blockade Iranian oil and charge shipping a 20% levy on the value of their cargo to help them through the Strait. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill it is a curious move for someone wanting to see oil price lower – it had the opposite effect, pushing oil up over 9 percent, even though many might discount it as just another Trump negotiating tactic. Tech stocks have taken a hit too. The focus today will be on US CPI, with the Fed’s Christopher Waller sounding increasingly hawkish. Tonight we’ll also get a flush of US bank quarterly earnings.
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Monday 13th July 2026

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Oil prices fell on Friday even though war-like behaviour in the Gulf escalated. The hostilities ramped up even further over the weekend, so can investors hold their nerve and keep oil prices below $80? Phil is joined by NAB’s Taylor Nugent to talk through the prospects for the week ahead – a week that includes US inflation and retail sales data, alongside a swathe of bank earnings, plus the NAB Business Survey for Australia and China’s Q2 GDP growth.
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Friday 10th July 2026

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All is not so rosy in China despite the official figures showing continued strong growth. ‘It’s not as becalmed and orderly as the government would have us believe’, says George Magnus. George is an independent economist and a research associate at the China centre at Oxford University and at the school of Oriental and African studies in London. He was previously chief economist at UBS and wrote ‘Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy’. He joins Phil to talk about the unreliability of China’s growth data, in particular how the targeted high growth industries, supported by government investment, are overshadowing the broader economy, where wages are low, unemployment is high and growth is at a crawl. Meanwhile government debt is growing. How sustainable is this path and what does it mean for exporters deliver resources to China? ‘Hedging your future business risks might be a good thing,’ says George.
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Friday 10th July 2026

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Hostilities continue to escalate in the Gulf yet oil prices have fallen and bond markets rallied. Are we over it? On today’s podcast NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are accepting there wil be low grade military action for some time to come, and oil will continue to trade in a quasi-equilibrium between $70 and $90. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that he expects oil prices to fall as the year progresses, despite the rise in hostilities. He said he was more concerned about AI as a driver of inflation. Sally also talks to Phil about yesterday’s stellar manufacturing PMI and the fall in China’s inflation.
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