NAB Morning Call

Friday 23rd October 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

In this Weekend Edition, Phil speaks with Erin Leigh Brown, co-author of the Grattan Institute's landmark report Budget Reboot: How to Fund Australia's Future. They break down Grattan's controversial proposed tax reform package: broadening and raising the GST from 10% to 15% across all goods (including fresh food, health, and education) to raise $76 billion annually, while directing $33 billion to targeted income tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners and $25 billion to welfare boosts. Brown addresses criticisms from both sides of the political spectrum—responding to free-market arguments around state expenditure controls as well as welfare advocate concerns regarding GST regressivity—and explains how the package aims to put low-income households $150 a week ahead while creating fiscal room to replace inefficient state taxes like stamp duty.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd October 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Phil is joined by NAB's Gavin Friend to analyse a sharp risk-off session across global markets, driven by tech valuation worries and ongoing Middle East energy supply disruptions. US equities fell heavily—led by a 2.7% drop in the Nasdaq following Meta’s increased capital expenditure outlook—while benchmark Brent crude oil surged near $113 per barrel amid Houthi drone strikes and escalating transport costs. Investors rushed into safe-haven Treasuries, pushing US 10-year yields down 16 basis points, while European bond markets saw further divergence as French OAT yields jumped on fiscal uncertainty, pushing the French German 10-year spread wider. Market attention will remain on US tech earnings alongside central bank decisions next week, and preliminary October PMI prints today.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd October 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Phil and NAB's Taylor Nugent discuss how market sentiment around AI is rebounding following strong Q3 earnings from SpaceX, even as local infrastructure bottlenecks loom large—highlighted by NextDC's 42% stock plunge following delays to its Melbourne data centre rollout. Domestically, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the inflation backdrop has "materially worsened" relative to August projections, pushing market pricing for a November rate hike to nearly 50%, while NAB's monthly spend tracking showed resilient consumer spending driven primarily by non-mortgage holders. Globally, French 10-year bond yields climbed past 5% for the first time since 2002 as fiscal debate drags on, UK inflation printed slightly higher than expected at 3.5%, and oil prices remained elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st October 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil to break down a highly volatile session where investors remain caught between geopolitical oil shocks and European political instability. Crude oil touched a five-month high near $112 a barrel before pulling back to hover around $108 for Brent. In Europe, widening political and fiscal unrest in France drove French 10-year government bond (OAT) yields higher and widened the OAT-Bund spread past 150 basis points, though markets showed little signs of broader European contagion. On Wall Street, tech stocks staged a recovery ahead of major earnings releases from Meta and SpaceX, while US pending home sales plunged 12.6% year-over-year under the weight of elevated mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar briefly touched 70 US cents.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th October 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to navigate a session defined by rising global bond yields, with US 10-year Treasuries up 7 basis points to 5.15% and French 10-year yields jumping 13 basis points amid worsening social unrest and local curfew proposals. US equities pulled off a tech-led rebound ahead of key corporate earnings. Oil prices edged higher but found strong technical resistance near $110 a barrel for Brent, balancing regional escalation—such as Houthi strikes targeting Saudi transit hubs—against reports that Middle Eastern crude export flows remain near 80% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rallied half a percent toward the 70 US cent mark on broader currency strength, though domestic monetary tightening expectations and economic slowing continue to cap a broader breakout.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.