NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 17th June 2026

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A unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB's view remains firm that the data flow won't give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures.
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Tuesday 16th June 2026

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There’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today.
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Monday 15th June 2026

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NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss a week where markets are responding to the shifting realities of a proposed U.S.-Iran peace deal. Deep optimism over a potential memorandum of understanding opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free pushed Brent crude down to $87.30 a barrel and led to sharp gains across European equities. Looking ahead to a massive week of central bank decisions—including the Fed, Bank of England, and a highly anticipated Bank of Japan hike—the focus turns to the RBA's upcoming statement. Sally expects the board to maintain its steady path while striking a balanced tone; the RBA will likely acknowledge cooling domestic activity via soft housing metrics and dropping capacity utilization rates, yet remain anxious over sticky inflation pipelines, leaving the truly consequential policy and forecast revisions till their August meeting.
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Friday 12th June 2026

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Japan finds itself performing a high-stakes economic balancing act as the nation navigates its most aggressive structural pivot in decades. In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie welcomes Tokyo-based independent macro strategist Tetsuo "Harry" Ishihara to unpack how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is fiercely driving growth via an interventionist, multi-year fiscal strategy—employing heavy gas subsidies and targeted funding across 17 growth sectors to absorb the massive shock of the Middle East energy crisis. Yet, this state-sponsored growth push directly collides with the Bank of Japan's urgent agenda. With the yen weakening back past the precarious 160-per-dollar mark, the central bank is looking clean through artificial headline numbers to an "ex-institutional" inflation metric that is creeping toward 3%. Can the government maintain its growth-at-all-costs mandate while the BOJ prepares to bite the bullet with a historic interest rate hike to 1% next week to defend the currency and tame import costs? Tune in to discover how Tokyo plans to pull off this delicate macroeconomic manoeuvre without bringing the entire apparatus crashing down.
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Friday 12th June 2026

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A major coordinated market reversal took place overnight as Donald Trump posted a dramatic Truth Social message stating that a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal is "just about done," prompting an immediate unwind of trades built on escalating tensions. NAB's Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect this massive shift, which saw Brent crude plunge back below $90 a barrel, US Treasury yields drop 9 basis points, and the Nasdaq snap back into a roaring 3.5% rally. Yet Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency swiftly downplayed the announcement, stating no text has been formally approved. Beyond the Gulf,: the European Central Bank delivering its first interest rate hike since 2023 to combat broad-based inflation pressures, and today sees the historic debut of the largest initial public offering (IPO) in global history, dwarfing Saudi Aramco with a mind-boggling valuation.
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