NAB Morning Call

Thursday 2nd April 2026

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Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability.
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Thursday 2nd April 2026

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility.
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Wednesday 1st April 2026

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In today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.

Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data.

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Tuesday 31st March 2026

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As the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment.
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Monday 30th March 2026

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As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment.
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