NAB Morning Call

Friday 18th September 2026

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Markets have shrugged off their early response to the hawkish press conference from Kevin Warsh yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the unwound started soon after the initial response, with bond yields falling and shares recovering. Both have been helped by a further reduction in oil prices, on hopes of resumed Saudi supply through their east-west pipeline. Ken and Phil also talk about the Bank of England yesterday and the assumption that the Bank of Japan will lift rates today. But what if they don’t?
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Thursday 17th September 2026

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A unanimous decision from the Fed to lift rates and, a s NAB’s Ray Attrilll explains, at least one more rate hike seems likely this year. The market response was fairly muted initially after the short statement talked about how the resilience in the economy was adding to the supply-side inflation worries, but it was Kevin Warsh’s press conference that drew the biggest response. So what did he say? Meanwhile the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold despite rising inflation numbers yesterday. How long can they hod that stance? It’s a similar question for the RBNZ, particularly if there is clear growth in today’s GDP numbers.
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Wednesday16th September 2026

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Bond yields are still at multi-year highs, driven by inflation concerns, in turn driven by oil prices, which are still rising, alongside expectations for rate hikes from central banks. NAB’s Skye Masters says markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Fed tomorrow morning (our time) but there will be interest in the dots plot (whilst it’s still a thing) to determine future moves. Phil and Skye also look at the rise in Japanese Government Bonds Yields. As Phil points out, the last time they were this high nobody had heard of the Spice Girls.

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Tuesday 15th September 2026

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Rising bond yields, rising oil prices, bond yields higher. Today is a repetition of yesterday as the same pressures drive markets - the Middle East, AI growth concerns, inflation fears and central bank expectations. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss market reactions and where she thinks expectations might be a little over-egged. Why, for example, asks Phil, is the market expecting hikes from the Bank of Canada this week when yesterday’s data shows inflation seems to be more under control there than in most places? Today’s UK jobs data precedes a Bank of England rate announcement on Thursday.
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Monday 14th September 2026

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It’s curious that the CEO of a major AI platform argues that AI development should be slowed down in case it causes serious problems, when that same company has its sights set on a share market listing. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril makes that point on today’s podcast with Phil, as they also examine the impact of Friday’s higher than expected inflation read from the US. And the rising uncertainty for middle east oil supplies. And should we take Canada seriously when they talk about becoming an associate member of the EU or is it just talk to upset the US? Phil suggests if they really want to upset the US they should join the Euro!
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