NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd July 2026

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Intelligence suggests that Iran has moved its nuclear capability inside Pickaxe Mountain, which the US President has said they will attack, heavily. That, together with an IEA warning and Saudi ships turning around in the Red Sea has pushed oil higher, back into the nineties, with the potential to go much further. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the market response to this, plus the rebound in equities, particularly for chipmakers, ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings this morning. Plus, yesterday’s employment data, today’s CPI and how the new UK PM is treading a careful path on spending.
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Tuesday 21st July 2026

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Oil prices were on the rise but have eased a little on the hope that maybe a 10-day ceasefire could quell the escalating tensions in the Gulf, after nine nights of open hostilities. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through how markets continue to manage their way through the uncertainty. Higher oil prices have had limited impact on the underlying inflation in Canada, with the softer than expected CPI print giving no reason fro the bank of Canada to do anything except watch and wait. Words from Andy Burnham on his first day as UK PM have pushed bond yields higher, but they retraced a little as he gave the Chancellor role to what many consider a safer pair of hands. New Zealand’s CPI is the main focus in the region today.
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Monday 20th July 2026

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Oil prices were pushed higher as tensions in the Gulf escalate, and with more happening over the weekend there’s every chance oil prices will push higher still. Tech stocks took a hit on Friday with news of the imminent release of Kimi K3, China’s latest agentic open-source AI offering that challenges the supposed superiority of US solutions. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss both developments, and to look ahead to a week dominated by CPI numbers (NZ, UK, Japan, and Canada) and Australian labour market data.
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Friday 17th July 2026

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The petroleum resource rent tax has been around since 1988. It was introduced by the Hawke government as a way to tax the super-profits from petroleum and gas companies extracting offshore resources, without reducing the incentive for new investments. There have been many tweaks to the system over the years, some following the Callaghan Review, commissioned by Scott Morrison in 2017. Now, the government is indicating it wants to see more money from these companies, which would mean more ‘tweaks’ to the system, or perhaps a totally new approach. But that’s easier said than done. Lachlan Vass, research manager at the e61 Institute, joins Phil to talk through the rationale behind the original approach, what’s changed, and why more changes might work, but could also be costly or counterproductive.
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Friday17th July 2026

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It’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases.
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