NAB Morning Call

Friday 16th October 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Tom Jensen, Head of International Freight & Logistics at the Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA), to unpack the relentless disruptions hitting global sea freight. From post-COVID supply chain adjustments and soaring landside fees to the Red Sea crisis and escalating Middle East tensions, the conversation explores how foreign shipping lines are passing on heavy conflict surcharges and longer transit costs to Australian importers and exporters. Jensen details the impact of global carrier consolidation, vertical integration into landside terminals, and the structural imbalance between 40-foot import containers and 20-foot/reefer export demand. He also sheds light on Australia's port efficiency challenges, landside empty container park fees, Part X competition law exemptions, and the Federal Government's trial of a strategic fleet to safeguard national supply chains.
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Friday 16th October 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil after a turbulent 24 hours across global and domestic markets. Investors pulled capital out of the tech sector amid rising concerns over AI-related corporate debt and capital spending, driving a safe-haven rally into US Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields down, well below the post-CPI highs. On the domestic front, the Australian dollar dropped sharply below 69.2 US cents after September employment data showed a net fall of 39,000 jobs and an unemployment rate edging up to 4.7%. Meanwhile, US producer price inflation surprised to the upside with a 1.3% monthly surge, reinforcing expectations of persistent cost pressures ahead of scheduled remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok.
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Thursday 15th October 2026

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to break down the market fallout from higher-than-expected US CPI data, where headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.7%. The surprise print triggered an immediate knee-jerk reaction across asset classes—sending the US Dollar Index up half a percent, pushing equities lower (with the Nasdaq down 1.9%), and sparking a wild 14-basis-point intra-session spike in 2-year US Treasury yields before bond yields eventually retraced. Locally attention shifts to today's crucial Australian September employment figures; following August's sharp jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. What will today’s print mean for the RBA’s November decision?.
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Wednesday 14th October 2026

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In today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes firmly on the table. Globally, equity markets traded softer as the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook flagged rising inflation forecasts and elevated bond yields as primary systemic risks, while US markets digested a mixed bag of Q3 bank earnings ahead of crucial CPI data.
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Tuesday 13th October 2026

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Semiconductor stocks are taking a beating as competition from China and internal US pressures weigh heavily on tech, while oil prices continue their climb as the Middle East conflict flares and the energy ceasefire fails to hold. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to break down the latest market turbulence. They analyse the rising US dollar and sliding Australian dollar, escalating fiscal concerns in France driving bond spreads wider, and what to expect from today's key local releases—including the NAB Business Survey and the RBA meeting minutes.
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