NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 1st July 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The Yen fell further again overnight, hitting another 40-year low, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s no indication of when and if there will be any further currency intervention. US equities push higher and oil falls lower as Iran news falls off the front pages and investors focus more on the fundamentals. The RBA minutes yesterday reiterated that conditions were ‘now probably somewhat restrictive’, but was that enough to change expectations for a cut? Meanwhile house price data out this morning shows a drop in house prices for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Plus, the latest European inflation data, China’s PMIs, confidence and jobs data from the US, with US manufacturing ISM out today. The main event could be that Sintra closing panel, with Kevin Warsh joining Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem, but given his opposition to forward guidance what can he talk about? The weather?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

As NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil, five cities are the focus for markets right now. In Doha, there are high hopes that high-level peace talks are resuming to stabilize maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, markets are on the look out for a currency intervention after the Japanese yen languished to a staggering 40-year low past 161.96 against the greenback. In Sintra, the global monetary elite are gathering for the ECB forum, where AI risk is very much the agenda. In Washington a landmark 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court ruling fiercely defends central bank independence by blocking the White House from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Finally, in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has publicly admitted that targeted Ukrainian infrastructure strikes are severely impacting Russian life as local fuel supplies run short. Your whistle stop tour starts now!
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Nobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th June 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Is artificial intelligence on track to save mankind, or is the relentless hype hiding a massive financial crash and an ultimate existential threat? This weekend Phil tackles these profound questions with BCA Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist, Peter Berezin, following his controversial paper, “Boom Before Doom: The Terrifying Reason to Be Bullish on AI”. Drawing sharp parallels to the 2000 dotcom bust, Peter challenges the "winner-take-all" assumptions fueling today’s record data centre investments. He warns that computing power is rapidly becoming a commoditised, low-margin utility akin to historical railroads, canals, and airlines—destined to lose investors billions even as it reshapes society. But if the financial structural risks aren't enough, the episode pivots to a chilling medium-term outlook: if first-mover tech giants fail to generate sustainable profits, what happens if they intentionally give AI models full autonomy over real-world infrastructure and corporate operations simply to slash human labour costs?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Crude oil prices are marching back up after a Singaporean tanker was fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the market response to that and to the sharp move up in Micron stock after the chip maker provided stellar forward guidance. Meanwhile, core U.S. PCE inflation printed exactly as expected at 0.3% monthly, nudging the annual rate up to 3.4% and cementing a restrictive Fed baseline. Closer to home, they look at the Australian employment print for May, after a noisy April print, Ray says it confirms a resilient yet gradually cooling local labour market that aligns cleanly with NAB’s expectations that the RBA will continue their current holding pattern for the rest of the year.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.