NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 5th August 2026

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The dictionary definition of ‘otherwordly’ is something not from this world, and therefore, not real. Which is probably not what the Palantir CEO meant when he used it to describe their stellar earnings result, which saw their shares skyrocket. Let’s hope peace talks for the Gulf are real, with Scott Bessent saying he expects a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen as soon as today. And oil prices responded. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this latest bout of optimism which has also seen bond yields fall and the Aussie dollar rise. They also look at yesterday’s strong Australian household spending data.
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Tuesday 4th August 2026

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President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as tomorrow. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Sally Auld that means markets only have to wait 24 hours to be disappointed, but the net reaction has been a sharp fall in oil prices and rises in shares. Sally also talks about how the joint currency action on the Yen between the US and Japan marks a new era where allies work together on financial outcomes. In the US a strong ISM report signalled continued strength for the US economy, whilst in Australia we saw house prices fall again and await household spending data today.
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Monday 3rd August 2026

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There were strong moves in the Yen on Friday, for the second day in a row, with the US reportedly joining Japan in moves to shore up the currency. NAB’s Skye Masters says we can expect to hear more on that today, Meanwhile, no moves in the Gulf despite President Trump’s threat to unleash almighty military action. Gulf states convinced him to give peace one more try. With the Strait still largely closed to traffic it makes this morning’s announcement from OPEC+, to increase production by 188k barrels a day, largely academic. And the focus at the backend of this week will be on non-farm payrolls in the US, whilst household spending is the major data release for Australia.
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Friday 31st July 2026

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The government wants one fifth of all the gas that’s extracted in Australia to stay in the country to serve domestic demand, and to sure up our energy security. That’s fair enough isn’t it? It makes little sense that we suffer a shortage of supply if, at the same time, we are exporting large amounts of LNG. Josh Stabler, managing director of Energy Edge, who knows the gas markets well, says it’s not the principle that the industry is objecting to, it’s the approach. Many see that a strict 20 percent of all supplies being foisted on the domestic market will bring prices down and question the viability of domestic supplies and investment in new fields. Josh says the viability of the Longford plant in Victoria is of particular concern. Hear the arguments in a debate that has many moving parts.
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Friday 31st July 2026

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As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discusses with Phil this morning, there is still a lot of market confusion following Kevn Warsh’s press conference yesterday. Are markets worried that inflation could rise and the Fed does little to stop it? Meanwhile US GDP came in softer than expected, but the reverse was the case in Europe. Whilst in Japan the Yen rose, ahead of the BoJ meeting today. Presumably through some engineered currency intervention. And a record jump in Microsoft shares, because they beat on earnings and came below on capex spending, not many tech companies are doing that right now.
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