NAB Morning Call

Monday 13th April 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the "stalemate" in the Middle East after ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without resolution. The breakdown has led to a further escalation, with President Trump announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran warns that any military approach to the waterway will be considered a breach of the standing agreement. It’s ecpcted markets will show signs of reversal from last week's brief optimism. They also discuss a jump in U.S. CPI driven by surging gasoline prices and an end to China’s deflationary PPI.
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Friday 10th April 2026

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Phil is joined by James Bentley (Director of Sustainable Finance at NAB) and Richard Lovell (Head of Debt Markets at CEFC) to discuss how current geopolitical instability and energy price volatility are accelerating the business case for net-zero technologies. The conversation highlights the strategic partnership between NAB and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which provides significant interest rate discounts—up to 115 basis points for on-farm emissions reduction projects—to help SMEs and farmers overcome the high upfront costs of green equipment. From large-scale green hydrogen fertilizer projects to the adoption of "no-till" farming and battery-powered construction cranes, the guests explain how these investments are shifting from environmental ideals to essential tools for operational resilience and long-term cost management.
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Friday 10th April 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the fragile and one-sided nature of the proposed ceasefire in the Middle East, which Rodrigo notes remains highly volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon. The conversation explores the "phantom" nature of the peace deal, with Iran demanding the right to continue enriching uranium and proposing a toll for passage through the Strait—conditions that remain far from any common ground with the U.S.. Beyond the conflict, they break down a worrying divergence in the U.S. economy, where Core PCE inflation rose for a second consecutive month while real consumer spending declined.
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Thursday 9th April 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a fragile market reprieve following President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. While the news triggered a significant relief rally—sending the Nasdaq up 2.8% and WTI oil down 17% to $91 a barrel—the optimism remains guarded as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran alleges violations of the agreement. Skye notes that while investors are pricing out an immediate escalation, they aren't yet pricing in a total resolution, as energy prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. The discussion also covers the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish stance on stubborn inflation and a strong Japanese payrolls print, both of which suggest central banks may still be forced to tighten despite the global geopolitical volatility.
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Wednesday 8th April 2026

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NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil amidst the heightened tensions in the Middle East as President Donald Trump's 8:00 p.m. ET deadline approaches. Trump has issued a dire warning on Truth Social that a "whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran fails to comply with demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Axios reported a "glimmer of progress" in negotiations over the last 24 hours, the situation remains critical following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and a petrochemical compound in Shiraz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets have remained relatively sanguine, though oil prices saw WTI rise over 1% to nearly $118 a barrel. The pair also review recent economic data, including strong discretionary spen din Australia in February, and the likely hold from the RBNZ today.
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