NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 29th April 2026

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Markets are wobbling, oil is surging, and the world’s central banks are lining up for a big week — but nothing is quite behaving the way you’d expect. Today Phil and NAB’s Sally Auld unpack why oil keeps climbing even as the UAE walks out of OPEC, how OpenAI’s internal stumbles have rattled global equities, and why consumer confidence is mysteriously improving just as fuel prices bite. We’ll dig into the Bank of Japan’s split decision, the jump in euro‑area inflation expectations, and what Australia’s CPI means when “core” no longer tells the whole story. And what to watch as the Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE all step up this week.
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Tuesday 28th April 2026

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Its another session where equities are rising – albeit only slightly – whilst oil pushes higher. Talks between the US and Iran are not progressing, with the US President suggesting Tehran calls him when they have something to discuss. Meanwhile the Straits of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping. It’s in this environment that all central banks this week – the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the Fed and the ECB, are expected to keep rates on hold. Yet UK bond yields have risen more than most overnight, NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why. Plus, a busy week for earnings, with most of the major tech players reporting.
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Friday 22nd April 2026

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Kylie Willment, Chief Investment Officer at Mercer, joins Phil Dobbie to explain why their core investment strategy remains sound even as the global landscape becomes increasingly volatile. While Willment emphasizes that their fundamental long-term approach is right, she discusses the necessary "adjustments at the margin" being made to navigate current geopolitical firestorms and the shift toward "just-in-case" economic resilience. The discussion highlights that private and overseas investments remain valid and essential components of a modern portfolio, provided they are backed by rigorous asset-level research and robust protections against persistent inflation risk. From the "massive tailwind" from the energy transition to the relative insulation of the U.S. economy, Willment provides a deep dive into how super funds are evolving to protect member returns in a "messier" era for central banks and global trade.
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Friday 24th April 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss a significant escalation in the U.S. naval blockade, which has now expanded into the Indian Ocean with the seizure of tankers carrying Iranian oil. This move follows the earlier strikes in the Gulf and indicates a broadening of the conflict's reach, which has seen S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower, and oil prices pushing higher, The discussion also highlights a stark economic divergence reflected in the latest Flash PMIs: while the U.S. continues to show resilience with both manufacturing and services remaining above 50, the Eurozone and UK have slumped deeper into contractionary territory.
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Thursday 23rd April 2026

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In today’s NAB Morning Call, Skye Masters joins Phil to analyse why U.S. equity markets appear to be "looking through the fog of war" as they push to new all-time highs—with the S&P 500 breaking above 7,000—even as oil prices and bond yields remain significantly elevated. As the conflict in the Gulf persists, Skye questions this "curious" appetite for risk and whether investors are underestimating the long-term structural shifts toward higher costs and localized resilience. The discussion covers the latest UK CPI data for March, which demonstrates the immediate inflationary impact of the conflict, and looks ahead to today’s PMI releases, which are expected to further highlight the economic divergence between a robust U.S. and a softening European landscape.
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