NAB Morning Call

Friday 17th July 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

The petroleum resource rent tax has been around since 1988. It was introduced by the Hawke government as a way to tax the super-profits from petroleum and gas companies extracting offshore resources, without reducing the incentive for new investments. There have been many tweaks to the system over the years, some following the Callaghan Review, commissioned by Scott Morrison in 2017. Now, the government is indicating it wants to see more money from these companies, which would mean more ‘tweaks’ to the system, or perhaps a totally new approach. But that’s easier said than done. Lachlan Vass, research manager at the e61 Institute, joins Phil to talk through the rationale behind the original approach, what’s changed, and why more changes might work, but could also be costly or counterproductive.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday17th July 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

It’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th July 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The Aussie dollar is back in the seventies for now, with a weaker US dollar, while the only answer the US President seems to have for the Iran situation is more military action. Could this challenge the downward trend in inflation? US PPI overnight was weaker than expected, adding to the softer CPI numbers the day before. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s growth, although there were some positive signs for the domestic economy. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss all of this, plus the Bank of Canada decision overnight. They look ahead to US retail sales and UK GDP later on and explain why the pound is one of the strongest upward currency moves this morning.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th July 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

At his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Kevin Warsh vowed to make today’s elevated inflation ‘a thing of the past’, whilst warning that softer inflation numbers overnight should not be seen as ‘mission accomplished’. NAB’s Skye Masters tells Phil that, even though expectations for a July rate hike have lessened, markets are still pricing in more than one this year. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and US bank earnings, and the President’s reversal on a 20% levy on goods passing through the Strait. But with tensions not easing, oil continues to rise in price. A busy day today as well with data from China, US, Europe and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th July 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

President Trump posted overnight that the US would blockade Iranian oil and charge shipping a 20% levy on the value of their cargo to help them through the Strait. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill it is a curious move for someone wanting to see oil price lower – it had the opposite effect, pushing oil up over 9 percent, even though many might discount it as just another Trump negotiating tactic. Tech stocks have taken a hit too. The focus today will be on US CPI, with the Fed’s Christopher Waller sounding increasingly hawkish. Tonight we’ll also get a flush of US bank quarterly earnings.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.