NAB Morning Call

Friday 19th June 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Is the Australian property market running out of puff, or are we just seeing the first ripples of a dramatic regulatory shake-up? Phil sits down with Cotality’s head of Australian research, Gerard Burg, to dig into whether the federal government’s newly minted tax overhauls for established dwellings are actively driving investors away. They break down a highly unusual shift in local listings where properties are sitting on the market far longer, signaling a slow rebalancing of supply and demand that actually predates the budget. From the roaring lifestyle market in Hobart to stark upper-quartile property slides in Sydney, this episode uncovers why first-home buyers are getting squeezed the hardest by compounding RBA interest rate hikes. Plus, they explore a looming structural nightmare: why the massive 36% post-pandemic spike in construction costs and the approaching 2032 Brisbane Olympics are set to derail the government’s ambitious target of building 1.2 million homes. Tune in to find out if the golden era of hands-off property speculation is officially behind us, and whether, as a positive, tax changes will finally push Aussie wealth into more productive areas of the economy.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Vessels have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz following the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran MoU, with Brent crude at three-month lows near $80 a barrel. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this is as low as we can expect it to go for now, at least until a more definitive peace emerges. Also, Ray explains why the Aussie dollar is holding its own against a surging U.S. dollar and why the Bank of England hold – and future holds – might have something to do with the "Maradona theory" of monetary policy. They had to get soccer in there somehow. All covered off before the need for a refreshment break.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

A concise and hawkish Federal Reserve decision has shifted global desks. Phil unpacks Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting with NAB’s Gavin Friend. It delivered an unyielding 12-0 vote to hold rates steady alongside a razor-thin official statement that raised inflation forecasts and explicitly prioritised price stability. This refusal to offer traditional forward guidance pushed bond yields higher and sparked choppy swings across the Nasdaq, all while a surprise 0.9% surge in U.S. retail sales proved the American consumer is out shopping. Meanwhile the UK awaits employment data and a high-stakes by-election. Then there’s that MoU with the signing-ceremony a day away.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

A unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB's view remains firm that the data flow won't give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

There’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.