NAB Morning Call

Monday 25th May 2026

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diplomatic signals from the U.S. and Iran. While Donald Trump and Marco Rubio teased an imminent breakthrough that briefly sent Bitcoin surging 2%, the administration subsequently walked back the timeline, advising negotiators "not to rush". Ray notes that while both sides have reportedly softened their unrealistic demands—such as Iran dropping shipping toll requirements and the U.S. easing off proxy funding restrictions—the immediate reality points toward a mere 60-day ceasefire extension rather than a comprehensive resolution. Meanwhile, a single Iraqi crude supertanker successfully traversed the closed Strait of Hormuz, but with global inflation pressures mounting, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a tough call on rate paths, keeping the global economy in a state of tentative, risk-sensitive suspense.
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Friday 23rd May 2026

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This week Phil sits down with NAB’s Gareth Spence and JBWere’s Glen Bertram to unpack the ramifications of the federal budget's aggressive pivot away from established property tax incentives. The panel deconstructs how ditching the 50% capital gains tax discount in favour of a cost-base indexation system, paired with a new 30% minimum tax rate, rewrites the wealth creation playbook for Australian property investors. What impact does limiting negative gearing to new builds have on the pricing and rental yields of established dwellings? Will the changes shift investment away from property – even more money going into super, for example? More importantly, will the impacts be as profound as many are making out?
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Friday 22nd May 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton discusses the unexpected softening in the Australian labour market, where the unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% alongside a loss of 19,000 jobs. Ken points out that this surprising shift shows firms are pausing hiring plans due to global headwinds and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. While U.S. markets showed some resilience on the back of tech earnings, Europe faces deep contractionary pressures with manufacturing and services data turning weak. This sudden domestic downturn removes the immediate urgency for the RBA to lift interest rates again, pushing market expectations for the next potential hike out to August.
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Thursday 21st May 2026

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There were strong moves in positive sentiment today as several vessels sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by hopes of some sort of deal with Iran. Brent Crude dropped in price and bond yields fell, particularly in Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields had started to fall on the back of weaker than expected CPI data in the UK. The Fed’s minutes this morning showed more members leaning towards rate rises this year. Australian employment data is out today. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.3%, but it was so close to 4.2% last time that’s a possibility too. And NVIDIA earnings beat expectations, but the forecast wasn’t as bullish as some had hoped.
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Wednesday 20th May 2026

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The worry from just about everywhere is that when there’s a supply shock, companies are quicker to pass on the costs to their customers than they would in ordinary times. The RBA said as much in a paper yesterday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s why NAB now expects another rate rise next month. Others are saying the same thing about inflationary worries, including the BoJ’s Gov Ueda yesterday, but is it concerning enough for him to raise rates? Meanwhile, President Trump’s TACO moment over planned attacks on Iran means the world continues to watch oil reserves dwindle and prices steadily rise.
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