NAB Morning Call

Friday 6th November 2026

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Phil speaks with Professor Paul Whiteley from the University of Essex to break down the seismic political and economic fallout of the US midterm elections. Following a historic "blue wash" that delivered decisive control of both the House and Senate to the Democrats, Whiteley argues that Capitol Hill’s primary focus will be "cleaning up the mess"—strategically daring Donald Trump to wield his veto against popular domestic measures such as healthcare protections and billionaire wealth taxes to damage the Republican brand ahead of 2028. Beyond domestic gridlock, they examine how executive pushback could trigger an oversight avalanche targeting administration officials and corporate megadonors, whether the massive capex bubble across big tech and data centres is facing an inevitable market reckoning, and how European leaders might capitalize on a distracted Washington to assert greater strategic autonomy and coordinate aid for Ukraine. Finally, drawing on long-term global survey data from his upcoming book, Whiteley explains why this election could signal that the global tide of authoritarian populism has peaked, paving the way for a broader democratic recovery.
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Friday 6th November 2026

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Phil and NAB's Gavin Friend break down a brutal tech-led sell-off on Wall Street as reality sets in over what a Democratic-controlled Congress means for big tech valuations and regulation. The Nasdaq plunged 5% and the S&P 500 tumbled 3.6%—dragging major names like Nvidia, Tesla, and Micron down between 8% and 15%—as investors price in heightened oversight, local moratoriums on massive AI data center build-outs, and fading odds of corporate tax breaks. The equity rout spurred a classic safe-haven flight into sovereign debt, with US 2-year Treasury yields sliding 11 basis points. In the UK, the Bank of England delivered a hawkish 25-basis-point rate hike—its first lift since August 2023—with member Catherine Mann pushing for 50 bps as Governor Andrew Bailey warned of sticky second-round inflation pressures. Meanwhile, oil prices staged a modest 2.8% rebound, French political gridlock deepened after the National Assembly rejected the revenue side of the budget bill, and markets ready for tonight's US non-farm payrolls release.
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Thursday 5th November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill, unpack a dramatic risk-on session across global financial markets following a decisive Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. With the prospect of less in the way of military action in the Middle east crude dipped below US$94 a barrel for the first time since late September. This, combined with the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement tweaking issuance guidance, fueled a powerful rally in sovereign debt that sent US 10-year Treasury yields down 7 basis points and French 10-year yields tumbling 18 basis points. Global equity markets surged in response, whilst the US dollar weakened, lifting the Australian dollar back above 70.2 US cents. Domestically, while stronger-than-expected Australian household spending data for September (+0.6%) highlighted ongoing consumer resilience ahead of a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Andrew Hauser, across the Tasman, New Zealand’s labour market surprised on the downside, with Q3 employment contracting 0.1% and the jobless rate rising to 5.7%, significantly paring back market expectations for an aggressive RBNZ rate hike in December.
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Wednesday 4th November 2026

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NAB’s Taylor Nugent assesses the fallout from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Melbourne Cup Day decision, where the Board delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase to lift the cash rate to 4.85%. Despite the rate rise, domestic bond yields and the Australian dollar both declined—with the Aussie dipping back below 70 US cents—as markets seized on a dovish 6–3 split vote and a subtle softening in the RBA’s forward guidance, reinforcing NAB’s view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now done and dusted. On Wall Street, tech equities mounted a modest recovery following recent steep losses, led by a bounce in semiconductor makers like Nvidia and AMD, though Apple slipped 1.8% despite beating quarterly revenue estimates. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped further—with Brent sliding toward US$103 a barrel—and US JOLTS data pointed to renewed labour mobility with a pickup in job openings and quits. Across the Pacific, all eyes now turn to the counting of the US midterm elections as polls close across the East Coast, with markets alert to the prospect of divided government in Washington.
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Tuesday 3rd November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril analyse a sharp drop in oil prices after reports surfaced that US President Trump is pursuing diplomatic de-escalation over Iran. That’s spurred a broader risk-on tone across financial markets, driving sovereign bond yields lower and boosting European and broad US equities, even as technology stocks lagged on persistent AI capex caution and pre-earnings nerves ahead of Apple’s results. Domestically, the spotlight turns to today’s Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, where markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point cash rate increase following last week’s sticky Q3 trimmed mean inflation print, even as building approvals data highlights mounting headwinds across the residential construction sector. Meanwhile, political focus intensifies around the US midterm elections, with polling pointing to an altered legislative landscape in Washington.
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