NAB Morning Call

Friday 25th September 2026

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The hipsters live inside the goat’s cheese curtain before they start a family and move to the burbs in search of their quarter acre block. That’s the traditional pattern of life in Australia, but demographer Bernard Salt, from the Demographics Group, says major changes are afoot. Fertility rates of younger people are falling faster than expected, and people are living longer than forecast. It’s not an Australia-only phenomenon of course, but it brings forward the peak-human horizon. This week Bernard joins Phil to discuss how the changes are good news for Australia, but only if we have a plan.
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Friday 25th September 2026

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The "V" word is firmly back on the agenda as geopolitical friction, soaring energy prices, and relentless sovereign yield pressures inject fresh ‘volatility’ across global markets. This morning Phil and NAB’s Taylor Nugent break down the forces driving crude oil back over $106 a barrel as Red Sea insurance premiums soar and Middle East tensions escalate. Meanwhile, sovereign bond markets continue their dramatic bear steepening amid a persistent chorus of hawkish Fed commentary and lukewarm Treasury buyback demand. Closer to home, Australian unemployment has jumped to 4.6% despite solid headline jobs growth, while NAB’s Q3 Business Survey reveals tightening margins and deteriorating trading conditions. After the announcement of a trade truce extension, will the Trump-Xi meeting today offer further geopolitical relief?
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Thursday 24th September 2026

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The US dollar and global bond yields have risen sharply. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a bit part of this was stronger than expected PMIs, particularly for the US. It shows demand isn’t falling, whilst oil supplies remain a concern. So much of a concern that the US is limiting diesel exports to shore-up its domestic supplies. The US is attempting to bring down longer dated yields with a $6 billion buyback today. Phil asks, if it didn’t work last time, what will be different now? Australian labour market data is out later today, but the path for the RBA already seems to be set. And President Xi sets foot in the US today; an extension to the moratorium on tariffs is the best that can be hoped for.
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Wednesday 23rd September 2026

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Oil is now trading below $100 after President Trump says talk have gone well with Iran during the UN General Assembly in New York, with more talks scheduled I’n the near future’. NAB’s Ken Crompton says news of the east-west Saudi pipeline reopening has also helped. Markets have ignored the more extreme language of ‘annihilating’ the Republic if talks don’t go well. And what of Michelle Bullock’s fireside chat? ‘Well, it’s inflation that’s on fire,’ says Ken on today’s podcast. Meanwhile, the focus today will be on the UN General Assembly and the PMIs for Europe and the US.
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Tuesday 22nd September 2026

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Oil ticked below $99 momentarily overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says reports of more traffic through the Strait have helped, along with a comment from the US president that he wlll ‘probably’ talk with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN Assembly this week/ But oil doesn’t want to stay below 100. Falling oil prices have helped bring down European bond yields. In a quiet session data wise there’s been much focus on comments from Chicago Fed chair Austan Goolsbee who suggested that growth might take a hit in the fight to control inflation. Expect Michelle Bullockto deliver similar messaging today in her fireside chat at the CEDA event at the Fullerton hotel in Sydney this lunchtime.
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