NAB Morning Call

Monday 16th November 2026

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In this episode, Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill examine a surging US dollar that has pushed the Australian dollar down to 67.7 US cents—its lowest level since January. The slide reflects a significant shift in yield differentials, with Australian 10-year bond yields dipping below US Treasuries last week for the first time since August as markets increasingly price in RBA rate cuts for the second half of next year, while US yields climb on hawkish Fed commentary and stubborn inflation. Meanwhile, in-line US Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers offered a small sliver of relief ahead of the Fed's preferred PCE deflator, Brent crude held steady near US$96.80 a barrel amid conflicting Middle East conflict headlines and rising global oil inventories, and investors look ahead to Canadian inflation data, Japanese Q3 GDP, and Chinese retail sales.
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Friday 13th November 2026

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In this Weekend Edition, Phil speaks with Stephen Martin, Head of Multi-Sector Credit at Challenger Investment Management, to examine whether Australia’s booming $200–300 billion private credit sector has become too risky. Following ASIC’s sharp warning over market opacity and retail exposure—and the high-profile $3.4 billion collapse of Sydney residential developer the Bathla Group—Martin explains why construction and development lending has been hit by a "perfect storm" of rising interest rates, surging input costs, and thin capital buffers. While he agrees that rapid capital inflows have stretched standards in residential development and that the sector faces a period of reckoning, he argues that private credit as a whole is far broader and more resilient than headlines suggest. Phil and Stephen explore how institutional managers maintain discipline through independent risk oversight, what happens as offshore capital pulls back, and where attractive opportunities are emerging across asset-backed finance, corporate loans, and completed commercial real estate.
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Friday 13th November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Ken Crompton unpack a dramatic session of rotation across global markets, where an executive shakeup at NVIDIA sends its shares lower while rival chipmakers—including AMD and Broadcom—surge higher, alongside a major Microsoft Exchange outage disrupting email traffic. Across rates and currencies, US Treasury yields bounce sharply higher following the Veterans Day holiday—pushing 10-year yields toward 5.1%—as a heavy slate of hawkish Fed commentary (including Beth Hammack and Austan Goolsbee) reinforces expectations for further tightening ahead of tonight's US PPI print. The resulting broad US dollar strength has pushed the Australian dollar down 0.6% toward 68 US cents and briefly nudged USD/JPY past the key 160 level, putting markets on alert for potential Japanese currency intervention. Phil and Ken also examine rising Brent crude prices above US$95 a barrel despite a solid build in US inventories, a strong UK Q3 GDP beat (up 1.9% YoY) that failed to move sterling or gilts, softening New Zealand retail card spending, and a sharp drop in US existing home sales toward GFC-era lows as elevated mortgage rates weigh on housing.
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Thursday 12th November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Gavin Friend discuss another powerful rally in the US dollar alongside a roaring comeback for technology equities, even as US bond markets remained closed for Veterans Day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed 0.7% to 102.9—touching its highest level since mid-October—putting widespread pressure on European currencies and the Yen, while the Australian dollar held relatively steady around 68.5 US cents. On Wall Street, the NASDAQ jumped 2.1% led by an extraordinary 3.8% surge across IT and semiconductors, with NVIDIA rebounding nearly 5% and Micron surging 14%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 also notched a fresh all-time high, buoyed by solid corporate earnings from the likes of Siemens Energy. Meanwhile, oil prices steadied near US$93 a barrel despite simmering rhetoric between Washington and Tehran, UK 2-year gilt yields surged 20 basis points over two sessions on rising Bank of England rate hike expectations ahead of today's UK Q3 GDP release, and Australian data revealed a record 16% quarterly plunge in the value of new home loans—driven by a 32% collapse in investor lending.
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Wednesday 11th November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Skye Masters assess a "perfect storm" that has pushed the US dollar higher and sent the Australian dollar tumbling 1.1% to 68.5 US cents. Hotter-than-expected US core CPI (0.3% MoM) and hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan have reignited expectations for further US policy tightening—driving 10-year Treasury yields up 12 basis points to 5.0% and sending 2-year yields surging 18–20 basis points. In contrast, softer domestic prints from the NAB Business Survey and a four-year low in Westpac Consumer Sentiment have led markets to aggressively pare back expectations of further RBA rate increases, with cash rate futures now pricing just 1.6 basis points of tightening for December and beginning to price in cuts by late next year. Phil and Skye also examine Wall Street's volatile tech action, the NFIB small business survey’s persistent labour-matching problem, China's surging trade figures, and crude oil’s ongoing slide as markets keep an eye on Middle East headlines.
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