NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 3rd June 2026

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An exchange of fire in the Gulf aw a resurgence of risk-off sentiment in global markets, driving Brent crude back toward $98 a barrel and weakening the Australian dollar. The unfolding crisis highlights Warsh’s Dilemma ahead of his first Fed meeting: while much of the world downshifts, the U.S. economy remains strikingly insulated. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the May U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey surged nine points which, alongside strong ADP employment figures and an elevated prices-paid component signals inflation prospects that the Fed can’t ignore. Closer to how GDP growth slowed yesterday, in part because of the trade deficit, but also sluggish household consumption. How that plays out in terms of future rate decisions will no doubt be discussed in Michelle Bullock’s appearance before a senate hearing today.
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Wednesday 3rd June 2026

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More signs of global cooling. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks ahead to today’s Q1 GDP for Australia, with expectations dialled down following a surprising slide into a trade deficit yesterday. It shows how domestic growth was already slowing and tracking below RBA forecasts well before recent energy shocks emerged, although Ray says this, and the 4.75% increase in minimum wage, won’t impact the RBA’s trajectory. But the expectation of a rate rise from the ECB rose along with inflation yesterday. Services inflation is a particular sticking point.
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Tuessday 2nd June 2026

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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Sally Auld delve into a turbulent market session where geopolitical theatre and conflicting macroeconomic signals pulled global asset classes in opposite directions. Crude oil spiked toward $98 a barrel early in the session before cooling down to just over $95 after a flurry of Truth Social posts from Donald Trump claimed he had negotiated a halt to the fighting in Lebanon, smoothing the path for U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. While Wall Street pushed to fresh record highs solely on the backs of surging IT and energy stocks—buoyed by a strong U.S. manufacturing ISM accelerating to 54—the domestic focus shifted heavily to a much softer-than-expected Australian housing print. Sally highlights that this property slowdown represents a powerful alignment of compounding RBA rate hikes alongside significant changes to investor tax arrangements. While it remains early days, she notes that the combination of these forces could create a larger housing downturn cycle than initially anticipated.
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Monday 1st June 2026

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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Taylor Nugent check the pulse of a global market that remains suspended in a cautious holding pattern. Friday’s wave of optimism—which pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs and drove Brent crude down near the $90-a-barrel mark—has run into a wall of silence following a highly anticipated White House meeting on a 60-day Gulf ceasefire. With the administration maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz must open unconditionally and toll-free, and hints that the U.S. will remain patient for a "good deal," traders are left wondering if a lack of concrete updates will cause oil prices to drift higher once again. This geopolitical stalemate completely overshadowed a significant batch of central bank commentary and data: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that weak economic growth may prevent energy-driven inflation from feeding into wages, while early European CPI indicators revealed surprising downward price pressures, with headline prices in Germany dropping 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, despite a temporary water fee waiver softening Tokyo's core CPI, Taylor notes that Japan's strong industrial production and tight labour market mean there is still nothing to stand in the way of the Bank of Japan delivering another interest rate hike at its June meeting.
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Friday 30th May 2026

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While the market's attention has been transfixed by oil and gas, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a secondary, far more dangerous shock for Australian food security: a massive fertilizer crisis. Phil sits down with Paddy Rombola, Chairman of Advantage Agriculture, to unpack why Australia's 80% reliance on imported nitrogen-based fertilizers has left our agricultural sector critically exposed to a global supply chain where the Middle East controls nearly a third of all urea exports. With domestic urea prices skyrocketing from A$700 to an eye-watering A$1,900 per tonne in May, local farmers are being forced to cut back crop nutrition rates just as meteorologists warn of an incoming "super El Niño" drought across New South Wales and Queensland. Paddy outlines the immediate risk to consumer supermarket shelves, warning that while precision agronomy can help buy time, a looming fruit and vegetable supply crunch means everyday Australians should brace for significant food price inflation over the next six to nine months.
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