NAB Morning Call

Friday 5th June 2026

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A blowout U.S. non-farm payrolls report has injected definitive hawk-ish certainty into central bank paths, while a hyper-volatile tit-for-tat missile exchange between Israel and Iran leaves the outlook for the Gulf structurally unsettled. Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril work through the geopolitical and data crosscurrents, noting that while global oil prices spiked past $98 a barrel during the weekend combat before settling back to $94, prediction markets continue to aggressively push back the timeline for a lasting regional truce. This unresolved energy shock contrasts sharply with a block of robust North American labour metrics—led by a 172,000 U.S. hiring beat in May and an 88,000 full-time employment surge in Canada—which triggered a massive bear flattening across core treasury yield curves. Wall Street managed a partial recovery from its brutal tech sell-off, yet broader equity configurations show distinct vulnerability as a highly anticipated, multi-billion-dollar SpaceX flotation triggers significant liquidity churn. At home the focus pivots to a critical testing day for local momentum with the simultaneous drop of the NAB Business Survey and the Westpac Consumer Confidence index, which will offer fresh visibility on whether worsening price pressures, margin squeezes, and post-budget sentiment are altering the structural direction of the Australian economy.
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Friday 5th June 2026

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Phil talks to Tim Jordan, Commissioner at the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC),on how the energy grid is adapting to volatile fossil fuel prices and the massive surge in electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence. While retail energy costs prepare to ease under the upcoming July Default Market Offer (DMO) reductions, the conversation centres on the complex shift toward a renewable-dominated system. Tim breaks down the structural divide between the rule-making AEMC and the pricing regulators, highlighting the critical role that large-scale battery farms, domestic virtual power plants, and time-of-day pricing models must play to move supply out of midday solar peaks. The discussion covers major structural bottlenecks, from the long financial payback periods of household storage to grid connection delays and the unique challenge of providing vehicle-to-grid charging options in a country that is embracing more apartment living.
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Friday 5th June 2026

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Tonight's highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls data follows a week of highly conflicting signals from the American labour market. So, what will today’s data reveal about underlying economic momentum? Also, can the market’s rampant "buy the dip" equity mentality survive a potential rotation out of over-stretched tech stocks? Phil is joined by NAB's Ken Crompton to discuss this and the shifting risk sentiment which saw oil prices retreat on speculative Israel-Lebanon peace headlines. They also discuss RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s Senate testimony, questioning whether a hawkish pause and stickier supply-shock inflation will ultimately force a definitive interest rate hike this August.
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Thursday 4th June 2026

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An exchange of fire in the Gulf aw a resurgence of risk-off sentiment in global markets, driving Brent crude back toward $98 a barrel and weakening the Australian dollar. The unfolding crisis highlights Warsh’s Dilemma ahead of his first Fed meeting: while much of the world downshifts, the U.S. economy remains strikingly insulated. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the May U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey surged nine points which, alongside strong ADP employment figures and an elevated prices-paid component signals inflation prospects that the Fed can’t ignore. Closer to how GDP growth slowed yesterday, in part because of the trade deficit, but also sluggish household consumption. How that plays out in terms of future rate decisions will no doubt be discussed in Michelle Bullock’s appearance before a senate hearing today.
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Wednesday 3rd June 2026

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More signs of global cooling. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks ahead to today’s Q1 GDP for Australia, with expectations dialled down following a surprising slide into a trade deficit yesterday. It shows how domestic growth was already slowing and tracking below RBA forecasts well before recent energy shocks emerged, although Ray says this, and the 4.75% increase in minimum wage, won’t impact the RBA’s trajectory. But the expectation of a rate rise from the ECB rose along with inflation yesterday. Services inflation is a particular sticking point.
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