NAB Morning Call

Friday 7th August 2026

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As massive capital expenditure pours into artificial intelligence, the narrative is rapidly shifting from speculative equity gains to a major structural opportunity across debt and credit markets. This week Phil is joined by NAB’s Head of Credit Strategy, Peter Fullerton, to explore why credit markets might offer a far safer, cash-flow-backed alternative to navigating a potential tech equity bubble. Peter explains that while tech hyperscalers are turning free cash flow negative to fund relentless CapEx—causing corporate debt spreads to widen—they still enter debt markets with resilient, high-grade balance sheets that shield bondholders far better than the dot-com era ever did. Closer to home, the focus turns to the physical infrastructure build-out: how Australia's expanding data centre footprint and transmission grid rollouts are creating high-yielding, long-tenor, investment-grade paper backed by tier-one tenants. Are equity markets ignoring the monetization wall ahead, and is local credit the smartest way to extract yield from the AI wave without risking the downside of an equity reckoning?

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Friday 14th August 2026

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US producer price growth came in a little lower than expected, giving hopes that inflation is trending lower. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the market response, with expectations for Fed hikes weakening, even as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock said they might need two hikes before the year is out. Ken also talks with Phil about the speech yesterday by the RBA’s Chris Kent, the UK’s surprise GDP read, and the day ahead, of which US retail sales is the focus.
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Thursday 13th August 2026

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Market action has been very contained overnight, with small moves down in oil, glacial moves for currencies and bonds and share moves largely confined to US infrastructure plays. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss yesterday’s US inflation data which, although rising, was no worse than expected. Hence the muted response. Today the focus will be on US PPI and what the RBA’s Christopher Kwent has to say on a livestreamed fireside chat this morning.
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Wednesday 12th August 2026

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It was, as expected, a fairly hawkish RBA yesterday. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, tweaks to forecasts were relatively minor and they still expect to see inflation back on target in the second half of next year, but Michelle Bullock said she personally believes another hike this year might be necessary. ‘We’ll have to wait and see,’ she said, which seems to be the markets approach to everything right now, including the impacts of the Gulf, which is in stalemate. The impact of that, and AI spending and wage growth will be watched for in today’s US CPI. Will price growth slow? We’ll have to wait and see.
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Tuesday 11th August 2026

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On a session that’s been light on for data the focus has been on the two major undercurrents of the year. First, the Gulf. Oil pushes a little higher as talks have taken a back seat and the US seems prepared to wait it out as their blockade hits the Iranian economy. Shares were down a little as a consortium announced a half trillion-dollar funding package for AI. Phil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if the market response is a signal that some are still worried about a bubble? Today the focus is the NAB Business Survey and the RBA. A hold is likely and markets aren’t fully pricing a hike at all this year, but could that change?
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