NAB Morning Call

Thursday 1st October 2026

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Global financial markets are navigating a sharp divergence between the US and Europe, driven entirely by conflicting inflation trends. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack why resilient US economic data, cooler-than-expected Core PCE prints, and upward GDP revisions are supporting Wall Street, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.30%. In contrast, hot European inflation prints across Germany and France are weighing on sentiment and lifting ECB rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has slipped below 69.5 US cents following softer-than-forecast domestic inflation data, which has led markets to tone down expectations for back-to-back RBA rate hikes.
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Wednesday 30th September 2026

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Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, market attention has shifted to Governor Michele Bullock’s post-meeting press conference. NAB's Taylor Nugent says her commentary hinted that the RBA may be returning to its "narrow path" balancing inflation control against labour market conditions, softening some of the hawkish expectations for follow-up hikes. Meanwhile, global bond yields continue their upward trend, pushing 30-year US Treasuries to multi-decade highs, as markets digest a softer US JOLTS job openings report, declining US consumer confidence, and European inflation updates. Looking ahead, today brings Australia's August CPI data alongside the US PCE inflation report and Chinese PMI reads.
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Tuesday 29th September 2026

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As crude oil holds above $105 a barrel and US 10-year Treasury yields surge to 5.24%, markets are grappling with how much further central banks can push policy rates to restrain persistent inflation. On today’s podcast Phil talks with NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Sally notes that while US growth resilience and structural Capex demand are driving global yields higher, Australia’s cooling PMIs and softening business survey data suggest the RBA is operating in a vastly different cyclical environment than its peers. The pair also examine Nvidia’s historic $150 billion share buyback, the US-China tariff cuts and key global data reads including US JOLTS and Canadian GDP.
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Monday 28th September 2026

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Donald Trunp has knocked back Iran’s proposal that could have seen the Strait of Hormuz reopen within seven-days. Instead, the US President believes economic sanctions will ultimately have the desired outcome. So, does that mean oil prices will bounce higher this morning? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the volatility will continue, but news this morning suggesting talks are ongoing might temper any negative sentiment. It’s a busy week ahead with the RBA decision tomorrow, CPI middle of the week and payrolls data for the US.
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Friday 25th September 2026

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The hipsters live inside the goat’s cheese curtain before they start a family and move to the burbs in search of their quarter acre block. That’s the traditional pattern of life in Australia, but demographer Bernard Salt, from the Demographics Group, says major changes are afoot. Fertility rates of younger people are falling faster than expected, and people are living longer than forecast. It’s not an Australia-only phenomenon of course, but it brings forward the peak-human horizon. This week Bernard joins Phil to discuss how the changes are good news for Australia, but only if we have a plan.
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