NAB Morning Call

Friday17th July 2026

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It’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases.
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Thursday 16th July 2026

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The Aussie dollar is back in the seventies for now, with a weaker US dollar, while the only answer the US President seems to have for the Iran situation is more military action. Could this challenge the downward trend in inflation? US PPI overnight was weaker than expected, adding to the softer CPI numbers the day before. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s growth, although there were some positive signs for the domestic economy. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss all of this, plus the Bank of Canada decision overnight. They look ahead to US retail sales and UK GDP later on and explain why the pound is one of the strongest upward currency moves this morning.
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Wednesday 15th July 2026

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At his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Kevin Warsh vowed to make today’s elevated inflation ‘a thing of the past’, whilst warning that softer inflation numbers overnight should not be seen as ‘mission accomplished’. NAB’s Skye Masters tells Phil that, even though expectations for a July rate hike have lessened, markets are still pricing in more than one this year. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and US bank earnings, and the President’s reversal on a 20% levy on goods passing through the Strait. But with tensions not easing, oil continues to rise in price. A busy day today as well with data from China, US, Europe and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada.
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Tuesday 14th July 2026

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President Trump posted overnight that the US would blockade Iranian oil and charge shipping a 20% levy on the value of their cargo to help them through the Strait. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill it is a curious move for someone wanting to see oil price lower – it had the opposite effect, pushing oil up over 9 percent, even though many might discount it as just another Trump negotiating tactic. Tech stocks have taken a hit too. The focus today will be on US CPI, with the Fed’s Christopher Waller sounding increasingly hawkish. Tonight we’ll also get a flush of US bank quarterly earnings.
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Monday 13th July 2026

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Oil prices fell on Friday even though war-like behaviour in the Gulf escalated. The hostilities ramped up even further over the weekend, so can investors hold their nerve and keep oil prices below $80? Phil is joined by NAB’s Taylor Nugent to talk through the prospects for the week ahead – a week that includes US inflation and retail sales data, alongside a swathe of bank earnings, plus the NAB Business Survey for Australia and China’s Q2 GDP growth.
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