NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 5th May 2026

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President Trump’s Operation Freedom, designed to escort vessels trapped in the Gulf, has got off to a shaky start. Iran claims they attacked a US warship (which the US denies), but nobody seems game enough to traverse the strait of Hormuz. Meanhwile the UAE has seen a number of drone attacks, So markets are uneasy today. On the home front, the RBA is very likely to lift rates today. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through it all.
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Monday 4th May 2026

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It certainly seems likely that the war between Iran and USA/Israel will continue for some time to come with Donald Trump likely to reject Iran’s 17-point peace deal claiming that they haven't paid the price yet for the damage they've done over the decades. Still, as Phil discusses with NAB's Rodrigo Catril US equities continued to climb hitting new highs again on Friday. The US President has also taken aim at Europe claiming that they are not following the terms of the trade agreement and saying that he will impose a 25% tariff on European cars as well as pulling out 5000 troops from Germany. This week a lot of the focus will be on the RBA, and non-farm payrolls from the US on Friday, with a swag of European data in the middle of the week as well.
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Friday1st May 2026

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Phil is joined by veteran energy analyst Neil Atkinson to peel back the curtain on a global energy system pushed to the brink by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, they discuss why the market’s hope for $80 oil later this year may be a "pipeline dream" given that actual physical cargoes are already fetching upwards of $150 a barrel. The conversation dives into the structural shifts reshaping the industry—from the UAE’s seismic departure from OPEC to why major oil giants like BP and Shell are pivoting back to their "fossil fuel basics" to satisfy shareholder demand. Whether it’s the looming threat of aviation fuel shortages in Europe or Australia’s dangerously low 32-day fuel reserve, this episode is an essential guide to understanding the true, long-term cost of a prolonged geopolitical firestorm on the world economy.
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Friday 1st May 2026

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Oil rose to its highest level since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz before retracing and ending up lower than a day ago. Why? Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton. Certainly it's not due to progress on peace talks, quite the reverse. But equity markets have risen on the back of healthy tech earnings results – although some did better than others. The Bank of England and ECB both kept rates on hold but made noises to suggest that rate hikes could be on the agenda if we see second round effects from rising oil prices. And the Yen rose sharply, with the suggestion that its down to intervention by the MoF. US ISM is the main data point tonight.
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Thursday 30th April 2026

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Oil continues to lurch higher, getting close to $120 this session, the highest since the closure of the Hormuz Strait. There’re no signs of progress, infact President Trump is indicating he’d prefer to wait until his blockade has an impact on Iran. That could take some time. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates on hold in Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair, with a divided board. Several objected to the neutral tone of the guidance, which suggested the next move is more likely to be down that up. Meanwhile Powell announced he will stay as a Governor for now. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss this, also a dovish hold from the bank of Canada, and a look ahead to the ECB and Bank of Enfgland. Sand don’t forget the mega-cap earnings coming up.
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