NAB Morning Call

Friday 20th March 2026

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In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs.
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Friday 20th March 2026

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Retaliatory attacks on Qatari gas facilities have sent energy prices soaring, with Brent crude momentarily almost return to $120 a barrel and European benchmark gas prices jumping as much as 30%. In this environment of heightened inflation risk, Phil talks with NAB’s Ray Attrill to examine the sharp rise in global bond yields, specifically a 40-basis-point spike in UK 2-year gilts following the Bank of England’s surprisingly hawkish stance. Ray also provides a deep dive into the latest Australian labour force survey, where a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% was offset by a surge in participation. Highlighting the resilience of the market, Ray notes, "Although the unemployment rate rose... employment growth was strong", keeping the labour market tighter than the RBA’s target for full employment and likely deterring any shift away from its restrictive policy.
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Thursday 19th March 2026

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Despite mounting geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a remarkably dovish stance, holding rates steady while signaling that a future cut remains a priority. Phil talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend to explore the central bank's curious optimism as it simultaneously upgrades its US GDP and inflation forecasts while still aiming for rate reductions later this year. Even with a hotter-than-expected 0.7% jump in the Producer Price Index suggesting persistent supply chain pressures, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is "looking through" the current energy shock to focus on a resilient labor market. As the Fed holds its nerve, attention shifts to the Bank of England and the ECB to see if they will follow this lead or react more sharply to the deepening collapse in economic confidence. The blowback from the attack on Iran’s South Pars refinery will also be watched, as it could mark a significant inflection point in the Middle East war.
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Wednesday 18th March 2026

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Today NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks.
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Tuesday 17th March 2026

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NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil this morning to explore the curious rise in global risk appetite despite ongoing volatility and a lack of significant change in the Middle East conflict. They break down the surprising overnight market shifts, including falling yields and a strengthening Aussie dollar, while questioning the sustainability of this "mild positive sentiment". There’s also a preview of today’s highly anticipated RBA meeting - where a rate hike to 4.1% is widely expected - and analyses strong new economic data from China that suggests a firmer start to the year for the global power.
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