NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 2nd September 2026

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Oil prices have risen sharply with further attacks from both sides in the Gulf. That’s pushed bond yields higher in a world that is struggling to contain inflation. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about the issue of rising yields which, in Japan have hit a 30 year high. New UK PM Andy Burnham gave his first speech to parliament, and yields there have risen 16bp, which Ray describes as another example of bond vigilantes at work. They also look ahead to today’s Australian GDP numbers, which are unlikely to change NAB’s view that the RBA will lift rates at their next meeting. Meanwhile the RBNZ is expected to lift rates today, with the Bank of Canada holding back for now.
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Tuesday 1st September 2026

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Month end rebalancing has been complicated by Scott Bessent talking up the case for successive rate rises by the Bank of Japan, to help boost the Yen, whilst attacks from both sides in the Gulf has reaffirmed that the war is not over and oil prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through all this, plus the continued weakness in the Chinese economy, and the latest data to feed into tomorrow’s Australian GDP numbers.
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Monday 31st August 2026

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Could Kevin Warsh be more hawkish than Jerome Powell was? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks to Phil about the Fed chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, which now has markets pricing a greater chance than not of a rate hike at the next meeting. They also discuss President Trump’s plan for a US government majority stake in a massive new Venezuelan oil company. Will it happen? There’s little evidence so far of Operation Economic Outcast. There’s a busy week ahead for data, including European inflation today, Australian GDP mid-week, two central banks and US non-farm payrolls on Friday.
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Friday 28th August 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Edward Sterck, Director of Research at the World Platinum Investment Council, to explore whether platinum is emerging as a higher-torque alternative to gold in the precious metals complex. Sterck explains how sustained market deficits—driven by severe geological supply constraints and deep-level underground mining limitations—initially catalyzed platinum's price rally before broader macro trends like US dollar debasement and geopolitical tensions began driving its movements alongside gold and silver. The conversation highlights platinum’s unique position, contrasting gold's monetary status with platinum's vital industrial demand in green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction, and expanding applications in AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing. With global mine supply heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia and facing structural headwinds that prevent quick production scalings, he highlights why platinum offers higher upside leverage (a 1.3 beta to gold) and why supply deficits are projected to persist well into the next decade.
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Friday 28th August 2026

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NAB has made the call that they expect the RBA to lift rates in September. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a hike. Expectations rose after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through NAB’s reasoning, as well as yesterday’s Capex numbers and upside surprise in household spending. They also discuss the rise in equities following yesterday’s NVIDIA earnings, oil rising against tensions in the Gulf and Ukraine, and rising hawkishness from the Fed alongside the Jackson Hole Symposium, ahead of Kevin Warsh speaking tonight. And a cause for celebration tomorrow!
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