NAB Morning Call

Monday 1st June 2026

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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Taylor Nugent check the pulse of a global market that remains suspended in a cautious holding pattern. Friday’s wave of optimism—which pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs and drove Brent crude down near the $90-a-barrel mark—has run into a wall of silence following a highly anticipated White House meeting on a 60-day Gulf ceasefire. With the administration maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz must open unconditionally and toll-free, and hints that the U.S. will remain patient for a "good deal," traders are left wondering if a lack of concrete updates will cause oil prices to drift higher once again. This geopolitical stalemate completely overshadowed a significant batch of central bank commentary and data: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that weak economic growth may prevent energy-driven inflation from feeding into wages, while early European CPI indicators revealed surprising downward price pressures, with headline prices in Germany dropping 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, despite a temporary water fee waiver softening Tokyo's core CPI, Taylor notes that Japan's strong industrial production and tight labour market mean there is still nothing to stand in the way of the Bank of Japan delivering another interest rate hike at its June meeting.
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Friday 30th May 2026

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While the market's attention has been transfixed by oil and gas, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a secondary, far more dangerous shock for Australian food security: a massive fertilizer crisis. Phil sits down with Paddy Rombola, Chairman of Advantage Agriculture, to unpack why Australia's 80% reliance on imported nitrogen-based fertilizers has left our agricultural sector critically exposed to a global supply chain where the Middle East controls nearly a third of all urea exports. With domestic urea prices skyrocketing from A$700 to an eye-watering A$1,900 per tonne in May, local farmers are being forced to cut back crop nutrition rates just as meteorologists warn of an incoming "super El Niño" drought across New South Wales and Queensland. Paddy outlines the immediate risk to consumer supermarket shelves, warning that while precision agronomy can help buy time, a looming fruit and vegetable supply crunch means everyday Australians should brace for significant food price inflation over the next six to nine months.
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Friday 29th May 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the latest reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have finalized a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. This crucial step, which would see the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopen toll-free, now reportedly just needs a nod from the US President activate, but its obviously more complicated than that. This glimmer of diplomatic progress pushed Brent crude down below $94 a barrel, completely overshadowing a mixed bag of U.S. economic data. While the annual core PCE deflator held sticky at 3.3%, annualized Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% and corporate profits took a surprise 0.4% squeeze. Despite cooling growth and comments from the Fed's John Williams that policy could go either way, Wall Street brushed off the headwinds, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high.
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Thursday 28th May 2026

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A softer-than-expected Australian headline inflation print sent the Aussie dollar sliding half a percent to 71.4 US cents. NAB’s Gavin Friend cautions that while the headline cooling is welcome, the trimmed mean core rate remains stubbornly high, meaning the RBA cannot yet afford to take its foot off the brake. Meanwhile the RBNZ held rates steady yesterday but strongly signalled that it is itching for another imminent interest rate hike. All eyes now look ahead to the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE deflator—which will influence the broader transatlantic interest rate path. And oil is lower, but will it last? The oil markets want to believe, says Gavin.
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Wednesday 27th May 2026

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Despite ongoing optimism around a potential peace deal, the U.S. literally "fired up" tensions by launching missile strikes against targets in southern Iran and mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. That sent Brent Crude prices highr, back over $100, whilst WTI fell. It was a session filled with divisions: U.S. Treasury yields fell 6 basis points and tech stocks rallied, while European yields climbed and its major indices retreated. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its more to do with who’s been on holiday on Monday rather than any significant geographic divide. Today the focus will be on Australia’s CPI and a speech by the RBA’s Carolyn Hewson.
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