NAB Morning Call

Friday 23rd October 2026

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Phil is joined by NAB's Gavin Friend to analyse a sharp risk-off session across global markets, driven by tech valuation worries and ongoing Middle East energy supply disruptions. US equities fell heavily—led by a 2.7% drop in the Nasdaq following Meta’s increased capital expenditure outlook—while benchmark Brent crude oil surged near $113 per barrel amid Houthi drone strikes and escalating transport costs. Investors rushed into safe-haven Treasuries, pushing US 10-year yields down 16 basis points, while European bond markets saw further divergence as French OAT yields jumped on fiscal uncertainty, pushing the French German 10-year spread wider. Market attention will remain on US tech earnings alongside central bank decisions next week, and preliminary October PMI prints today.
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Thursday 22nd October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Taylor Nugent discuss how market sentiment around AI is rebounding following strong Q3 earnings from SpaceX, even as local infrastructure bottlenecks loom large—highlighted by NextDC's 42% stock plunge following delays to its Melbourne data centre rollout. Domestically, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the inflation backdrop has "materially worsened" relative to August projections, pushing market pricing for a November rate hike to nearly 50%, while NAB's monthly spend tracking showed resilient consumer spending driven primarily by non-mortgage holders. Globally, French 10-year bond yields climbed past 5% for the first time since 2002 as fiscal debate drags on, UK inflation printed slightly higher than expected at 3.5%, and oil prices remained elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent.
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Wednesday 21st October 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil to break down a highly volatile session where investors remain caught between geopolitical oil shocks and European political instability. Crude oil touched a five-month high near $112 a barrel before pulling back to hover around $108 for Brent. In Europe, widening political and fiscal unrest in France drove French 10-year government bond (OAT) yields higher and widened the OAT-Bund spread past 150 basis points, though markets showed little signs of broader European contagion. On Wall Street, tech stocks staged a recovery ahead of major earnings releases from Meta and SpaceX, while US pending home sales plunged 12.6% year-over-year under the weight of elevated mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar briefly touched 70 US cents.
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Monday 19th October 2026

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NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to navigate a session defined by rising global bond yields, with US 10-year Treasuries up 7 basis points to 5.15% and French 10-year yields jumping 13 basis points amid worsening social unrest and local curfew proposals. US equities pulled off a tech-led rebound ahead of key corporate earnings. Oil prices edged higher but found strong technical resistance near $110 a barrel for Brent, balancing regional escalation—such as Houthi strikes targeting Saudi transit hubs—against reports that Middle Eastern crude export flows remain near 80% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rallied half a percent toward the 70 US cent mark on broader currency strength, though domestic monetary tightening expectations and economic slowing continue to cap a broader breakout.
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Monday 19th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this morning’s volatile backdrop for global financial markets, driven by tech sentiment, geopolitical pivots, and domestic unrest. Equity markets ended the week under pressure, led by a 2.1% drop in the Nasdaq on Friday as investors focused on the escalating debt and borrowing costs associated with the massive AI data center build-out, with firms like CoreWeave at the center of credit stress. Geopolitical uncertainty flared after President Trump moved to lift select sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil and gas, prompting Ukraine to step up retaliatory drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a major attack on the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Meanwhile, market sentiment across Europe is being tested by widespread student and public-sector protests in France over severe budget cuts and austerity proposals, threatening broader sovereign debt spreads. Looking ahead, investors face a busy week of Q3 earnings reports, flash PMIs, and critical Chinese GDP and activity data.
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