Tuesday 30th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe timetable to sign off the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling is very tight. Does it matter if it’s a day or two late? "Not really", says NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s podcast, although it might make the markets nervous for a while. A bigger question is what happens beyond that, as the administration plays catch-up on the issuance of Treasury Bills. Also today, we look at the impact of the Fair Work Commission’s decision on minimum and award wages. At what point does the increase become problematic for the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Democrats and Republicans reckon they have struck a deal over the US debt ceiling, which involves no growth in non-military government spending next year. The deal, could be voted on as soon as Wednesday, just in the nick of time, although as NAB’s Taylor Nugent pints out, Janet Yellen has revised the date for when the money runs out to June 6th. It’s not a done deal, of course, but we started to see early optimism reflected in markets in Friday and there’s no reason why that wouldn’t continue today, except the US and UK markets are largely closed for public holidays. Friday also showed resilience in US inflation and consumption, which has added to the likelihood of a Fed rate rise next month. Non-farm payrolls on Friday will be a key release for that too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere is still no resolution on the US debt ceiling. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about where markets go from here. Right now, it doesn’t seem to be worrying US equity markets, which have jumped on the forecasts from NVIDIA of am AI-led recovery in chip demands, pushing the company close to a one-billion-dollar valuation. Economc data overnight has shown an upside in the US, but a deterioration in Europe, with Germany having been in a recession for the last two quarters. Still, central banks are talking up the need to do more. Today Australian and UK retail numbers and more measures of inflation, the US PCE deflator and the Tokyo CPI print, which could be an uncomfortable read for the Bank of Japan.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMcCarthy and Biden finished their four hour talks on Wednesday with no resolution on the debt ceiling. Their division over spending continues to concern markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks at the market response, with a deal needed by the end of the week to allow time for the legislative process to run its course. There’s division within the FOMC too, evidenced by the latest minutes. There;’s also been a couple of surprises in the last 24 hours – the RBNZ indication that they may have stopped lifted rates, and the UK’s worrying inflation numbers now raising the possibility of a 50bp rate hike next time by the Bank of England. And rate hikes from the RBA might still have a way to go after Philip Lowe’s meeting with legislators.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s still no resolution on the USD Debt Ceiling. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says expectations are that a deal will be found in time, but markets are getting nervous, with falls in equities across the board (except energy). Inflation concerns continue to mount up, with the latest PMI data in the US and Europe showing that, in general, the service sector continues to expand whilst manufacturing falls further. The UK’s headline inflation rate will fall markedly, but it’s the core number that counts. And we see what the RBNZ is planning to attack persistent inflation – a 25bp is expected but there is an outside chance they will go harder today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.