NAB Morning Call

Friday 30th May 2026

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While the market's attention has been transfixed by oil and gas, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a secondary, far more dangerous shock for Australian food security: a massive fertilizer crisis. Phil sits down with Paddy Rombola, Chairman of Advantage Agriculture, to unpack why Australia's 80% reliance on imported nitrogen-based fertilizers has left our agricultural sector critically exposed to a global supply chain where the Middle East controls nearly a third of all urea exports. With domestic urea prices skyrocketing from A$700 to an eye-watering A$1,900 per tonne in May, local farmers are being forced to cut back crop nutrition rates just as meteorologists warn of an incoming "super El Niño" drought across New South Wales and Queensland. Paddy outlines the immediate risk to consumer supermarket shelves, warning that while precision agronomy can help buy time, a looming fruit and vegetable supply crunch means everyday Australians should brace for significant food price inflation over the next six to nine months.
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Friday 29th May 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the latest reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have finalized a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. This crucial step, which would see the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopen toll-free, now reportedly just needs a nod from the US President activate, but its obviously more complicated than that. This glimmer of diplomatic progress pushed Brent crude down below $94 a barrel, completely overshadowing a mixed bag of U.S. economic data. While the annual core PCE deflator held sticky at 3.3%, annualized Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% and corporate profits took a surprise 0.4% squeeze. Despite cooling growth and comments from the Fed's John Williams that policy could go either way, Wall Street brushed off the headwinds, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high.
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Thursday 28th May 2026

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A softer-than-expected Australian headline inflation print sent the Aussie dollar sliding half a percent to 71.4 US cents. NAB’s Gavin Friend cautions that while the headline cooling is welcome, the trimmed mean core rate remains stubbornly high, meaning the RBA cannot yet afford to take its foot off the brake. Meanwhile the RBNZ held rates steady yesterday but strongly signalled that it is itching for another imminent interest rate hike. All eyes now look ahead to the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE deflator—which will influence the broader transatlantic interest rate path. And oil is lower, but will it last? The oil markets want to believe, says Gavin.
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Wednesday 27th May 2026

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Despite ongoing optimism around a potential peace deal, the U.S. literally "fired up" tensions by launching missile strikes against targets in southern Iran and mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. That sent Brent Crude prices highr, back over $100, whilst WTI fell. It was a session filled with divisions: U.S. Treasury yields fell 6 basis points and tech stocks rallied, while European yields climbed and its major indices retreated. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its more to do with who’s been on holiday on Monday rather than any significant geographic divide. Today the focus will be on Australia’s CPI and a speech by the RBA’s Carolyn Hewson.
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Tuesday 26th May 2026

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Phil is joined by NAB’s Ken Crompton to discuss how global markets are holding onto optimism despite Donald Trump shifting his rhetoric, stating he will only settle for a "great deal or no deal at all" regarding Iran. Despite thin holiday trading with the US and UK closed, equity markets rallied to new records—with Japan's Nikkei jumping 2.9% and the Dax rising 2%—while Brent crude plunged 7% to just over $96 a barrel. Ken explains that while sentiment remains supported by a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension and plans to gradually normalize shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, key hurdles remain; Iran is currently making any final agreement conditional on China taking custody of its nuclear material, all while its central bank governor negotiates in Doha to unfreeze frozen assets. This fragile progress left the Australian dollar as the session's biggest major currency mover, climbing 0.7% to 71.8 US cents as traders await the full return of global desks.
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