NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 20th May 2026

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The worry from just about everywhere is that when there’s a supply shock, companies are quicker to pass on the costs to their customers than they would in ordinary times. The RBA said as much in a paper yesterday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s why NAB now expects another rate rise next month. Others are saying the same thing about inflationary worries, including the BoJ’s Gov Ueda yesterday, but is it concerning enough for him to raise rates? Meanwhile, President Trump’s TACO moment over planned attacks on Iran means the world continues to watch oil reserves dwindle and prices steadily rise.
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Tuesday 19th May 2026
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A stark geographic division has opened up in global markets as US and European assets move in entirely opposite directions. Phil talks to NAB's Skye Masters about this pronounced division, noting that while inflation fears have sent US equities tumbling and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% to a one-year high, European shares are rallying and bond yields are falling. This market fracture comes as geopolitical tensions reach a boiling point, with Brent crude pushing past $112 a barrel following reports that Donald Trump is convening his top national security team in the Situation Room to discuss military options against Iran. Meanwhile, a sense of political calm has returned to the UK after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham ruled out altering Rachel Reeves' fiscal rules, a move that lowered gilt yields and sparked a 0.7% climb for the pound. This transatlantic divide completely overshadowed much softer-than-expected economic activity data out of China, leaving investors to brace for a highly volatile week ahead of the Fed minutes and Nvidia's upcoming earnings.
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Monday 17th May 2026

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Just when markets were hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough, it’s clear the Chinese leader sees it as America’s problem. Donald Trump’s blunt dismissal of the latest Iranian proposal has sent global markets into a dramatic tailspin. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday's sharp risk-off move, which saw equities tumble and Brent crude surge toward $110 a barrel as the Polymarket odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening this month collapsed to a measly 5%. While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tries to calm nerves by calling the bond sell-off a temporary inflation blip, 10-year Treasury yields have added 11 basis points, and the UK remains in its own self-induced political fix as Andy Burnham’s leadership gamble pushes gilt yields up by a striking 18 basis points. This escalating geopolitical storm completely overshadowed surprisingly resilient U.S. industrial production data, leaving G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris today with a messy combination of a soaring U.S. dollar, collapsing consumer certainty, and the looming reality of a hawkish central bank response.
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Friday 15th May 2026

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks to former Etihad CEO James Hogan, now Chairman at consulting firm Knighthood Global Limited. They explore the aviation industry’s resilient response to the Middle East conflict and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. James highlights how major carriers are successfully pivoting their business models by leaning into consolidation and prioritising high-yield long-haul routes to offset the rise in airline fuel. He outlines a clear path for the sector to capitalise on "sovereign resilience" and operational agility to maintain global connectivity. The discussion underscores a positive long-term outlook, where the industry’s ability to re-centre its networks around more stable hubs ensures that global travel remains viable and robust, even as it adapts to a new era of higher energy costs.
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Friday 15th May 2026

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China has tried to establish the upper hand at the Beijing Summit by warning of the Thucydides Trap – a phenomenon where a rising dominant power challenges the old guard, It invariably ends in war. It was a bold way to kick off a summit, where Iran seems to have had less focus than Taiwan. Meanwhile, US equities continue to ride high on AI adrenalin, helped by stronger than expected retail sales. UK GDP also came in better than expected, but the impact negated by politicians jockeying for the overthrowal of the Prime Minister. And NAB’s customer data showed a dip in spending in April. Today, the end of the summit and maybe we’ll hear more from the President once he’s back on home turf.
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