Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and st...
Is ECB rate still restrictive? Aussie employment today’s focus.
Tuesday 18th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets reacted strongly to comments from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel who questioned whether they have already gone as far as they need to. She wonders whether the policy rate is restrictive anymore. NAB’s Skye Masters talks about the market reaction to that, and other central bank news over the last 24 hours. The FOMC minutes suggest slower moves by the Fed, rhe RBNZ seem set to reduce the size of cuts from hereon in, and UK inflation ticked higher than expected, which won’t see the BoE moving any faster. Today the RBA (and markets) will be focused on Australia’s unemployment rate. Skye said expectations are within a very tight range,from4 to 4.1%, so anything outside that could prompt a reaction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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15:02
RBA easing slowly. More cuts “no lay-down misère”
Tuesday 18th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA cut rates yesterday, but is the first one in this cycle also the last one for a little while? Governor Michele Bullock said successive cuts wasn’t the lay-down misère that markets had been expecting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the decision, the forecasts and the commentary. There’s also discussion about UK employment, Canadian inflation and today’s RBNZ decision. Plus, the latest on Europe, where the idea of a more cohesive approach to defence seems to be gaining traction, whilst exploratory talks between the US and Russia provided nothing to get excited about. Nobody in the room looked happy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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17:28
US & Europe: Divided they stand
Tuesday 18th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe whole European defence issue is becoming very complicated. Phil makes sense of it all with NAB’s Tapas Strickland on the day that US and Russian delegations meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss a cease fire deal, without Ukraine present. Worried about their ongoing reliance on the US, EU leaders (and the UK) met to discuss future defence spending, perhaps supported by Eurobonds, hitting existing bond prices and pushing European defence stocks higher. In other news, President Xi met with tech leaders, OPEC+ could be delaying production increases, Japan’s GDP growth is higher than Bank of Japan forecasts and the RBA is likely to cut rates today but NAB says it’s not as certain as markets suggest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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16:50
Have markets stopped believing?
Monday 17th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’d have thought, perhaps, that the threat of tariffs on any country charging GST on US imports (most OECD countries) would have had a string market reaction at the end of the week, but it didn’t. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether markets have stopped believing him and assumes all such proclamations and merely a prelude to some sort of negotiated deal. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to weaken and is now actually lower than when the President returned to the Oval Office. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow, but Ray says it’s not as a clear a cut as markets are suggesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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17:06
Weekend Edition: The Irvine Fix: Simplicity, Productivity and Confidence
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions.There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse.Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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