Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

Market drops are a gift when you’re young and a potential gut-punch when you’re retired, and this episode walks through why that’s true—and what to do about it. Don and Tom break down sequence-of-returns risk in plain English, then explore practical defenses: cash buffers, CD ladders, bucket strategies, flexible withdrawals, partial retirement, and why stocks still belong in retirement portfolios whether you like it or not. Listener questions tackle letting portfolios ride for heirs, value vs. total small-cap funds, tax consequences of rebalancing, and whether political risk should affect public fund investing. The takeaway: there’s no perfect plan, only resilient ones—and behavior matters more than spreadsheets. 0:04 Why market drops are good for young investors and scary for retirees 0:28 Holiday cheer, audience growth pleas, and the gospel of paper questions 1:40 Why young investors should root for down markets 2:41 Sequence-of-returns risk explained without the jargon 3:20 Real-world retire-at-the-wrong-time examples (2000, 2008, 2020, 2022) 4:48 Why sequence risk is such a big retirement planning problem 5:40 What to do if you fear bad markets near retirement 6:08 Cash buffers and why they actually make sense in retirement 7:06 Bucket strategies and how they’re supposed to work 7:36 CD ladders as a “get-me-through-the-bad-times” strategy 9:27 Flexible withdrawal strategies and lifestyle adjustments 10:37 Partial retirement, side hustles, and easing into retirement 11:33 Why retirees still need stock exposure 12:26 Even small equity allocations help fight inflation 13:20 There is no perfect withdrawal rate—only survivable ones 14:11 The realistic withdrawal range and why stocks are still required 15:33 Why professional fiduciary reviews actually matter 16:21 When life blows up your retirement plan anyway 18:55 Listener question: should a retiree just let stocks ride for heirs? 21:36 Washington CARES, politics, and investing public funds 23:18 Small-cap value vs. small-cap index: FSIVX vs. FSSNX 25:44 Why low-cost value tilts can still make sense 27:00 Smarter gifts: Roth IRAs, 529s, and future-you generosity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of Talking Real Money takes aim at the latest “easy money” illusion—house flipping—explaining why rising costs, higher interest rates, softer housing demand, and plain old competition have drained much of its appeal. Tom and Don connect flipping’s decline to a familiar pattern of speculative behavior, much like day trading or past real estate manias, and reinforce why there are no reliable shortcuts to wealth. Listener calls drive a wide-ranging discussion on global diversification versus U.S.-only investing, the dangers of concentration risk in the S&P 500, how recency bias distorts performance comparisons, and why owning more markets matters more than making predictions. The episode wraps with practical retirement guidance for older investors, including simplifying portfolios with low-cost target-date funds, and closes with trademark humor and perspective. 0:05 Show open, intro banter, singing callbacks, and weekend rhythm 0:28 House flipping compared to day trading and FOMO investing 1:28 Why flipping activity is down sharply: costs, rates, and competition 3:41 The myth of “passive income” in real estate 4:50 Softer housing markets and demographic headwinds 6:02 No magic systems—long-term investing still wins 8:27 Lisa (Colorado): investing nonprofit funds at Vanguard 10:30 VOO vs VTI vs VT and the case for global diversification 12:29 Volatility, standard deviation, and diversification basics 14:44 Sharpe ratios, recency bias, and misleading performance metrics 16:54 Charles (Seattle): Boeing plans, VOO, and AVGE at Schwab 18:32 S&P 500 concentration risk and the “Magnificent Seven” 21:33 Jason (Sammamish): VTI vs VT debate and long-term market data 28:41 Debbie (Camano Island): portfolio risk concerns at age 73 31:20 Risk tolerance vs risk capacity in retirement 33:16 Vanguard target-date funds as a simple retirement solution 36:01 Lighter close with creative fundraising and holiday humor Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A classic TRM episode that starts with Tom’s ill-fated attempt to cross a flooded Snoqualmie River (spoiler: no walking on water) and turns into a timely lesson on market returns, diversification, and why comparing your portfolio to headline numbers is usually a mistake. Don and Tom unpack eye-popping 2025 performance across U.S., international, bonds, and small-cap value, warn against recency bias and overpriced active funds, and take several listener calls on Roth conversions, bad custodians, debt forgiveness taxes, and rollover mechanics. The show wraps with Don’s well-earned victory lap for Seasons Readings, now rubbing shoulders with Julie Andrews and Hugh Bonneville in Apple’s fiction charts. 0:04 Tom gets stranded by flooding after a questionable river-crossing idea 1:40 Flood damage reality check and sympathy for displaced homeowners 2:22 Market year-end context and “Dave Ramsey average” returns 3:32 Bond funds surprise with strong year-to-date performance 4:05 International and global funds crush expectations 5:46 Why your return may lag headlines: allocation, costs, and recency bias 6:20 Apples-to-apples portfolio comparisons matter 9:26 Active funds underperforming despite a strong market year 10:47 Global diversification pays off big in 2025 12:04 January prerecorded show tease and holiday logistics 13:25 Seasons Readings featured by Apple Podcasts—downloads explode 15:18 Fiction chart brag: sandwiched between Julie Andrews and Hugh Bonneville 16:25 Listener call: John Hancock IRA, forced conversions, and bad advice 19:06 Why liquidating inside an IRA is not a taxable event 20:17 Exposing high-cost, loaded funds and custodian nonsense 23:35 Listener question: Roth conversions, pensions, and IRMAA timing 26:36 Why “top tax bracket forever” is usually a myth 27:31 Listener call: debt settlement and taxable forgiveness income 30:13 When a 1099-C is a good deal anyway 31:56 Flood-era investment scams and terrible ideas 35:55 Clarifying direct rollovers vs. taking possession of funds 38:13 Roth IRAs for young earners—yes, even pizza money Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If you’re nearing retirement and uneasy about the math, you’re not alone. Don and Tom tackle the uncomfortable reality that most near-retirees haven’t actually run the numbers—and many won’t like what they see when they do. Drawing on Vanguard data and real-world client experience, they break down three practical ways to shrink a retirement gap: working longer (but not necessarily full-time), thoughtfully tapping home equity, and spending less before and during retirement. 0:06 Opening and the retirement gap problem 0:52 Podcast platforms, Apple vs Spotify, and Don’s short-story empire 4:08 How TRM ranks among investing podcasts and why that still feels surreal 5:24 Vanguard data: only 40% of near-retirees are on track 6:51 Kids, money, and why retirement math gets uncomfortable fast 7:51 Strategy #1: Working longer (and why part-time can be powerful) 9:41 Purpose, boredom, and the underrated psychology of retirement 10:00 Strategy #2: Home equity as a retirement resource 11:12 Downsizing, renting, HELOCs, and reverse mortgage trade-offs 13:05 Strategy #3: Spending less—before and during retirement 14:29 Reverse mortgage costs, limits, and real-world implications 17:01 Social Security timing and when immediate annuities actually help 18:40 Inflation risk, fixed income streams, and practical trade-offs 19:02 Listener Q: AVGE vs DFAW and understanding underlying holdings 21:48 Listener Q: Aggressive Roth portfolios intended for heirs 25:30 Listener Q: Washington 529 plans and GET vs traditional 529s 27:32 Listener Q: Quantum computing (short answer: no) 28:59 Sector investing, AI hype, and why diversification wins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A holiday-flavored Friday Q&A that covers a lot of ground without selling a single candy cane. Don answers listener questions on Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage (and the IRMAA buzzsaw), how to safely reposition an elderly parent’s taxable account, whether to ditch target-date funds for a DIY equity portfolio, how to think about international small-cap ETFs, why teaching kids to pick stocks is a terrible idea, and what to expect when a “free portfolio review” comes from a company whose name literally includes the word annuity. Skeptical, practical, and very on-brand. 0:17 Corny holiday Q&A musical intro and setup 0:33 Friday Q&A format, how questions get on the show, and holiday vibe 2:00 Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage, IRMAA penalties, and why private insurers are exhausting 3:37 Why capital gains can make Medicare shockingly expensive 4:15 The profit motive problem with Medicare Advantage plans 4:37 Question transition and listener call-in reminder 5:43 Managing an 82-year-old’s taxable account: safety vs. yield 6:18 Why bond funds like BND diversify interest-rate risk better than savings accounts 7:15 CD ladders: how they work and why discipline matters 7:39 Treasury funds vs. total bond funds for capital preservation 7:47 Closing thoughts on preservation-focused portfolios 8:52 Target-date funds vs. DIY 401(k) portfolios 9:20 Glide paths, rebalancing, and what target-date funds do well 10:35 100% equity risk, volatility, and why down markets help accumulators 10:53 Choosing between AVDV and AVES (international small value vs. emerging markets) 11:47 Why the correct answer is often “both” 12:33 Teaching high school students about investing 13:52 Why stock-picking education reinforces a dangerous myth 14:28 Luck vs. skill and the evidence against beating the market 15:39 Index funds, market efficiency, and investor behavior 16:49 Morningstar vs. other research tools 17:18 Empower’s “free portfolio review” and what might be coming next 18:06 Portfolio concentration concerns and tech exposure 19:33 Humor break and annuity skepticism 20:55 What Empower actually is and what that implies 21:16 Empower as an RIA and how to treat their recommendations 21:52 Getting a second opinion from a fee-only advisor 22:58 Thanks, holiday wrap-up, and call for more questions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices