Property Investment & Wealth Creation Australia | The Michael Yardney Podcast

Every year, economists, property analysts and media commentators tell us where interest rates, house prices and rents are heading next.
 
Some forecasts will be broadly correct, many will miss the mark, and almost none will anticipate the unexpected events that eventually shape our markets.
 
Yet property investors continue searching for certainty, which is understandable when they are committing hundreds of thousands of dollars and taking on debt that may last for decades. The danger begins when a forecast designed to describe one possible future is treated as a promise.
 
In today's show, I want to explain why precise property forecasts can create false confidence, why dramatic boom and crash predictions receive far more attention than they deserve, and how our own cognitive biases can make us vulnerable to them.
 
I'll explain why, after more than 50 years of investing, I prefer to have expectations rather than forecasts. Expectations give me direction, while a Strategic Property Plan provides the roadmap and allows me to prepare for several possible futures.
 
I also explore how personal philosophy influences investment decisions, drawing on Jim Rohn's "set the sail" idea to encourage thoughtful, adaptable action.
 
Takeaways 
 
• Precise forecasts can create misleading investment confidence
• Australian property markets behave differently across regions
• Changing assumptions can quickly invalidate market predictions
• Investor bias influences how forecasts are interpreted
• Loss aversion makes crash predictions especially persuasive
• Property fundamentals matter more than short-term headlines
• Financial buffers help investors withstand market volatility
• Strategic plans reduce emotional investment decisions
• Constantly changing direction can damage long-term wealth
• Personal philosophy shapes financial choices and outcomes
 
Chapters
 
02:31 - What Shane Oliver says about the limits of forecasting
05:42 - Why precise forecasts create false confidence
08:24 - What to focus on instead of predictions
12:04 - Expectations versus forecasts
17:19 - Why chasing forecasts costs investors years
 
Links and Resources:
 
Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/
·        Win a hard copy of How To Grow A Multi-Million Dollar Property Portfolio In Your Spare Time?
·        Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report – What's ahead for property for 2026 and beyond.
 
Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here.
 
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property plan. Click here and have a chat with us.
 
 
Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au
 
Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.
 
About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation Australia
 
Success in property investment isn't just about numbers - it's about mindset, behaviour and decision making.
 
In The Michael Yardney Podcast, we explore the psychology of wealth, the habits of successful investors, and how to think strategically during uncertain market conditions.
 
Regular topics include:
• Psychology of money and wealth
• Investor behaviour and market cycles
• Rich habits vs poor habits
• High performance mindset
• Risk management thinking
• Decision making under pressure
• Long-term investing discipline
• Overcoming fear in property markets
• Building wealth through strategy, not speculation
 
If you want to avoid common investor mistakes and develop the mindset required to build lasting wealth in Australia's property market, this podcast is for you.
 
More resources at:
https://propertyupdate.com.au
https://metropole.com.au

Sydney and Melbourne house prices have just recorded their first monthly rise since April, and I think that's an important signal for anyone wondering where our property markets are heading as we move towards 2027.
 
Many commentators had written off our two biggest markets this year, after four interest rate rises, major changes to property taxes and a big cut in migration.
 
Yet Melbourne led the nation in October, with house prices up 0.6% over the month, and Hobart and Sydney also moved higher.
 
Meanwhile Brisbane, one of the stars of the last few years, recorded the biggest monthly fall of any capital city, and Perth and Adelaide also went backwards.
 
According to Dr. Andrew Wilson's My Housing Market, national house prices are still 3.8% lower than they were a year ago, but the rate of decline has roughly halved in a month as the spring selling season brings buyers and sellers back.
 
Today Dr Wilson and I  look at what's driving this shift and why national unit prices have just recorded their first annual fall since mid-2023. We'll also cover why unemployment at its highest level since COVID could change the RBA's thinking on rates, and why the government's new investor tax changes are likely to push rents higher, not lower.
 
Most importantly, we'll talk about what all this means for you if you're thinking of buying, selling or building your portfolio over the next 12 months.
 
Stick around to hear why this could signal an early recovery, and what it means for buyers and investors.
 
Takeaways
 
• Spring selling season lifts sales as buyers return
• Melbourne's three-year slump now offers buyers cheaper entry prices
• Brisbane's boom cools as higher rates push prices down
• Rate rises lose bite as markets adapt
• Rising unemployment pressures the Reserve Bank to hold rates
• Fewer international students raise unit vacancies, flattening rents
• Buyers enjoy lower prices and less competition right now
• Perth still leads year-to-date growth despite higher rates
• Brisbane units slump after a 26.7% two-year surge
• Canberra units rising 1.7% shows pockets of strength
 
Links and Resources:
 
Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/
·        Win a hard copy of How To Grow A Multi-Million Dollar Property Portfolio In Your Spare Time.
·        Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report
 
Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au
 
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property plan. Click here and have a chat with us
 
 
Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here
 
 
Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.
 
About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation Australia
 
The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia's leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.
 
Each week we explore:
• Australian property market updates
• Property investment strategies in Australia
• Melbourne property market trends
• Sydney property market forecasts
• Brisbane property investment opportunities
• Capital growth property strategies
• Property cycles in Australia
• Negative gearing and tax strategy
• Interest rates and their impact on property
• Buyer's agent insights and investment planning
 
If you're serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.
 
Learn more at:
https://propertyupdate.com.au
https://metropole.com.au

Here's an uncomfortable question to start today's show. When your last property deal didn't go the way you wanted, when a negotiation stalled, when the market moved against you, who did you blame?
 
The bank? The agent? Interest rates? The economy?
 
Here's the thing my guest today has learned after coaching some of the highest performing real estate agents in this country, and now some of Australia's leading business people and even a hedge fund manager.
 
The people who actually build serious wealth, in property, in business, in any field, almost never default to blame. They default to a single, uncomfortable question. What haven't I done well enough?
 
By the end of this episode, you're going to understand why roughly 20% of investors quietly build substantial, multi-generational wealth while the other 80% stay stuck, and it has very little to do with how much capital they start with or how smart they are.
 
You'll walk away with a practical way to catch yourself making excuses before they cost you your next deal, and a mindset shift that applies just as much to negotiating with a lender as it does to negotiating on price.
 
My guest today, Adam Joske, has spent more than 30 years studying that difference from inside one of the most competitive industries in Australia. He sold more than 1,200 properties, transacted close to $1 billion in residential real estate, led major agency networks and now coaches many of the country's leading agents and increasingly works with high performers well beyond real estate.
 
Yet today's conversation goes well beyond the mindset of successful real estate agents. We are going to explore what property investors, entrepreneurs and business leaders can learn from the way elite performers deal with setbacks, negotiation, responsibility, discipline and pressure.
 
Takeaways 
 
• Owning your decisions helps turn setbacks into useful lessons
• The 80/20 principle concentrates results among consistent performers
• Buyers can miss opportunities while waiting for certainty
• Market confidence may return faster than hesitant buyers expect
• Upper-end property can face different pressures than apartments
• Replacement cost offers context when assessing apartment value
• Comparable sales provide a stronger basis than inflated appraisals
• Agent negotiation skill matters more than the lowest commission
• Selling and buying in one market can reduce upgrade risk
• Resilience and rejection tolerance help sustain long-term performance
 
Chapters
 
02:36 - What separates top performers from everyone else
05:51 - If it's to be, it's up to me
08:40 - What buyers should do in this market
16:03 - How to choose an agent when selling
20:54 - Victoria's new reserve price disclosure rules
 
Links and Resources:
            
Join us at one of our upcoming seminars in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane.
 
·        Click here for more details and to lock in your spot. https://metropole.com.au/how-to-grow-seminar/
·        Join us in this small group environment so you can get your personal questions answered.
 
Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/
·        Win a hard copy of Negotiate Influence Persuade.
·        Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report.
 
Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here.
 
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property plan. Click here and have a chat with us.
 
 
Adam Joske - https://adamjoske.com.au/
 
Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au 
 
Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.
 
About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation Australia
 
The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia's leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.
 
Each week we explore:
• Australian property market updates
• Property investment strategies in Australia
• Melbourne property market trends
• Sydney property market forecasts
• Brisbane property investment opportunities
• Capital growth property strategies
• Property cycles in Australia
• Negative gearing and tax strategy
• Interest rates and their impact on property
• Buyer's agent insights and investment planning
 
If you're serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.
 
Learn more at:
https://propertyupdate.com.au
https://metropole.com.au

For twenty years, Australia's economy has been growing.         
 
Company profits have gone up, dividends have gone up, and property values have gone up.
 
But what if I told you that most of that growth had almost nothing to do with us getting smarter, more efficient, or more productive?
 
What if it was really just more people? More immigration, more houses needed, more traffic, more schools, more everything, but not one dollar per person any richer for it.
 
That is exactly what Ashley Owen, my guest today, has uncovered in a piece of research that should make every property investor sit up.
 
Because if the population growth tap gets turned off, and right now every side of politics is racing to turn it off, the growth story that's underpinned property values, company profits and rental demand for two decades could look very different.
 
By the end of this episode, you'll understand the real difference between population-driven growth and productivity-driven growth, why Australia has been taking the lazy option for twenty years, and most importantly, what it means for your property portfolio if immigration numbers keep getting cut.
 
We discuss Australia's reliance on population growth and what it means for the economy and property investors.
 
We examine why a larger economy does not necessarily translate into stronger living standards when productivity per person is barely growing.
 
Ashley traces Australia's slowing growth and explains how reforms in the 1980s and 1990s helped lift productivity.
 
We discuss the risks of slowing immigration before Australia has found new ways to boost output and address labour shortages.
 
The conversation turns to property, where housing undersupply, rising construction costs and builder failures make careful investment choices more important.
 
Takeaways 
 
• Population growth has masked Australia's weak productivity gains.
• Flat productivity limits improvements in living standards per person.
• Slower immigration could expose Australia's reliance on a growing workforce.
• Labour shortages may disrupt industries reliant on migrant workers.
• Past reforms helped lift productivity through competition and deregulation.
• Government employment growth does not automatically raise national productivity.
• Wage growth without productivity gains can add inflationary pressure.
• Housing shortages can keep rents elevated despite slower economic growth.
• Rising construction costs make new housing supply harder to deliver.
• Selective investors may favour established properties in undersupplied areas.
 
Chapters
 
04:43 - Two ways to grow an economy
08:22 - Seventy years of decline under every government
16:40 - What the eighties reforms actually did
22:24 - Cutting immigration and the AI fairytale
29:51 - The reforms that would actually work
 
Links and Resources:
 
Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/
•        Win a copy of How To Grow A Multi-Million Dollar Property Portfolio In Your Spare Time.
•        Every entry receives a copy of a fully updated Michael Yardney Property Report.
 
Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here
 
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan. Click here and have a chat with us. 
 
Ashley Owen, Director of Owen Analytics https://www.owenanalytics.com.au/
 
Article mentioned in the podcast:
https://www.owenanalytics.com.au/2026sep04-pop-productivity
 
Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au
 
Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.
 
About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation Australia
 
The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia's leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.
 
Each week we explore:
 
• Australian property market updates
• Property investment strategies in Australia
• Melbourne property market trends
• Sydney property market forecasts
• Brisbane property investment opportunities
• Capital growth property strategies
• Property cycles in Australia
• Negative gearing and tax strategy
• Interest rates and their impact on property
• Buyer's agent insights and investment planning
 
If you're serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.
 
Learn more at:
https://propertyupdate.com.au
https://metropole.com.au

Right now, property headlines are telling you the market is falling apart.
 
Prices have been down in almost every capital city for months in a row. Bank economists are downgrading their forecasts. Talk of more interest rate rises before Christmas.
 
And if you're an investor watching your portfolio value dip on paper, that news cycle feels personal.
 
But what if I told you that the very thing that's spooking everyone right now, this run of falling prices, is actually the setup for the next property boom, not the end of one?
 
Well, that's the view of my guest today - John Lindeman, one of Australia's most respected property market analysts and researchers.
 
In this episode, I speak with John Lindeman about why Australia's property downturn may be setting the scene for the next upswing.
 
We examine the slingshot effect: pent-up buyer demand can return quickly when confidence improves or lending conditions change.
 
John explains how interest rates, bank incentives and APRA's borrowing buffer could influence buyer activity and property prices.
 
We look at why sales volumes, inspections and loan pre-approvals can reveal a market turn before prices do.
 
The key message for investors is to seek quality property and long-term value rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom.
 
Takeaways
 
• Housing shortages underpin long-term demand in capital cities.
• Buyer uncertainty can suppress sales without removing demand.
• Pent-up buyers may return quickly after confidence improves.
• Lower interest rates helped lift prices after the GFC.
• Deposit guarantees give government a stake in housing stability.
• Banks may offer incentives to revive mortgage lending activity.
• APRA's assessment buffer influences how much buyers can borrow.
• Higher sales volumes can signal a turn before prices.
• Open-home attendance helps reveal changes in buyer confidence.
• Quality investment-grade property matters more than timing perfectly.
 
Chapters
 
03:05 - How long this downturn will last
05:26 - What the slingshot effect actually is
06:33 - The lesson from the GFC crash that never came
10:43 - APRA, the buffer rate and the trigger nobody talks about
14:25 - The early indicators to watch for
 
Links and Resources:
 
Join me at one of our upcoming seminars in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane.
•        Click here for more details and to lock in your spot. https://metropole.com.au/how-to-grow-seminar/
•        Join us in this small group environment so you can get your personal questions answered.
 
Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/
•        Win a hard copy of Negotiate Influence Persuade.
•        Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report
 
Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here
 
Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan. Click here and have a chat with us.
 
John Lindeman, Lindeman Reports.
https://lindemanreports.com.au/
 
Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au 
 
Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.
 
About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation Australia
 
The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia's leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.
 
Each week we explore:
 
• Australian property market updates
• Property investment strategies in Australia
• Melbourne property market trends
• Sydney property market forecasts
• Brisbane property investment opportunities
• Capital growth property strategies
• Property cycles in Australia
• Negative gearing and tax strategy
• Interest rates and their impact on property
• Buyer's agent insights and investment planning
 
If you're serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.
 
Learn more at:
https://propertyupdate.com.au
https://metropole.com.au