Grain Farmers of Ontario

US and the World

The calendar date has changed and with that so has the psychology. Where we have been musing about old crop stocks for several weeks and months now, April 2026 will be the month where planters will really start to roll both in corn and soybeans. The March 31st USDA Prospective plantings report always serves as a benchmark for the new crop year ahead of us. Sometimes, this report can see explosive market action as the algorithms have it dialed in. With war raging it is an uneven time in markets. The March 31st report set this up for what we may be looking at in crop acreage this year.

US producers surveyed across the United States will be planting less corn and more soybeans in 2026. The US corn acreage came in at 95.3 million acres which is down 3% from last year. On the soybean side of the ledger US soybean producers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026 which is up 4% from last year. The winter wheat acreage for 2026 is estimated to be 43.8 million acres down 3% from 2025 and the lowest number since 1919. Winter wheat acreage planted area was set at 32.4 million acres which is down 2% from last year.

The acreage numbers are very similar to a year ago. Keep in mind that that could change greatly over the year ahead.

Case in point is if you look over the last 20 years the average corn change between March intentions and final plantings is 1.634 million acres with soybeans at 1.868 million acres. The biggest swings during this have been 6.5 million acres for corn and 8.5 million acres for soybeans. So, despite the USDA report on March 31st being important there are always variations on the theme as we move ahead.

On April 3rd corn, soybeans and wheat futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.52 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.81 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $11.63 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.54. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.98 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.46 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.76 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of April 2nd, 2026, closed at $111.54/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $98.71/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.25/gallon, up vs the $2.16/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on April 2nd, 2026, was .7185 US, down vs the .7291 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario, it’s that time of year when everybody’s getting ready to plant. However, there have been hints of spring with a few warm days but so far is not wide open. Side dressing of nitrogen on wheat has barely started early in April with uneven weather. Needless to say, the wheat crop looks good although are there are a few poor fields from winter kill in specific areas.

Basis levels are very close to the same or slightly higher than they were since the last Market Trends report. Eastern Ontario corn basis which has been significantly higher than southwestern Ontario has eroded slightly. This likely will continue to be volatile throughout 2026 because of the short crop in this area last year. The soybean basis is largely affected by the volatility in the Canadian dollar and with it fluttering in the $0.71 range soybean basis has been strong.

Basis is always a reflection of supply and demand within your local area, however, as usual Canadian basis levels reflect greatly the value of the Canadian dollar. This is especially true for soybeans and wheat. It has been accentuated lately by the big moves in futures values caused by the war in Iran. If this continues, we should expect continuing volatility on basis levels.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.45 to $2.15 over the May 2026 corn futures on April 2nd across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.25 to $1.69 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.30 to $4.24 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.20 to $3.55 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.43. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.76/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

It’s been all about the war for the last two weeks but at a certain point you become numb to the pain. In other words, even the markets get the war dialed in. However, keep in mind that this price volatility isn’t going to go away, and it has been significant. For instance, after the January USDA report corn went down $0.50 a bushel. The rally in May futures did regain all of that and more before trailing off. Who would have expected that after the January limit down move. As it is, with war dialed in to the algorithms we’ve seen a 22-month high in both corn and soybeans.

Of course, the question is what happens now? With war raging in the Middle East affecting the price of oil it is also hard to say. However, prices are higher now than we’ve become accustomed to over the last 18 to 24 months. Closing your eyes for a minute and imagine a trading world without the war and we would likely see a far different picture. Think about seasonality, think about the spring weather, and think about “hot and dry” that may come this summer. At this point in early April, we are sitting better than we expected, almost a gift on the price front. US farmers produced 17.02 billion bushels of corn last year. Will that happen again and if it does will prices stay where they are?

Keep in mind it’s usually around the middle of June going into the July 4th weekend new crop corn reaches its high point. Soybeans are made in August which likely will be the same this year. However, there are always variations on the theme, and we’ll need to manage that risk looking ahead into a 2026 growing season.

Crude oil is always a default when it comes to the prices of our agricultural commodities. It is always part of the Market Trends report but in 2026 it is really changing the game. We have seen about a doubling in price of crude oil in the last 30 days with the resulting increase in the price of gasoline, diesel fuel and other distillates. Who knows if it’s over and who knows if $200 oil is possible. It’s a war thing, but it is reality. Our grain prices to some extent are taking a lead from oil but of course they are much more reluctant than oil probably will be

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

One of the bigger questions this spring is how much corn will be shifted into soybeans because of higher fertilizer prices. Estimates vary but about 75% of fertilizer has already been put down for corn in the United States mitigating much of that move. However, we never know and for the remaining acres it definitely could shift out of corn. Keep in mind, the American farmer loves growing corn and even with higher fertilizer prices it’s hard to see new crop acreage going down much further than what the USDA estimated.

Simply put, we are well supplied with corn in the United States. On March 1st, USDA put quarterly stocks at 9.024 billion bushels. That was slightly lower than the trade expected. Keep in mind that demand for this corn has been off the chart this year and price has been partly accentuated since the drop off in January by the war going on in the Middle East.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.75 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean rally started back in late January possibly to the notion that the market wanted to buy soybean acres. However, we know after that that the forces of the world took over with war starting to rage in Iran. The funds have also piled on hoping to ride the wave up. This is happening despite big supplies coming out of South America. Sometimes, things just don’t make sense.

Earlier we had been looking at the Trump meeting with President Xi of China as the flash point for American soybean buying. However, that meeting was postponed with a result in the decrease in the price of soybeans. Keep in mind that meeting is now rescheduled for May and market algorithms will be dialed into renewed buying from China for American soybeans. It’s like betting on how noisy can a firecracker pop. Trading algorithms pay attention to these news items and as we get closer to the meeting in May, so the prices will be sensitive to it.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 16 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 26th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat prices are higher than they’ve usually been, which should set off celebrations in the wheat complex. However, we know that some of this is due to the dryness in the American southwest plains, but also due to some of these prices tied to the increasing price of oil. Keep in mind that we’re coming off 5-year lows at the end of 2025. At the same time USDA prospective plantings report tells us that we have the least wheat acres since 1919. At a certain point you would hope it would break out, but in the wheat market that’s like waiting for Godet.

In Ontario, wheat prices are much higher than they were a year ago and although producers would like to see them surely go higher, lots of market orders might have hit lately. We are approximately $1.50 a bushel higher than we were last summer when the wheat was taken off the field. A Canadian dollar at .7185 US certainly helps. As per usual, in a war situation all bets are off, but we are in a better situation than we were a year ago.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar is telling a story even though it is hard to know what it is. From March 9th to April 3rd, 2026, the Canadian dollar dropped from almost 74 cents US to .7185 cents US. This was significantly positive for Ontario cash grains prices and will continue to be if the Canadian dollar continues to break. As always, the value of the Canadian dollar moves in an inverse fashion to the US dollar. However, there is always a variation on the theme, this time with war being part of it. The Canadian dollar at the 71 US dollar level likely presents good opportunities for cash grain pricing.

We know that these are unique times in the grain market. The hot war of the last few weeks has made it that way. Part of the reason for this are the funds which form non-commercial demand have piled into corn and soybeans. In fact, we have the largest net long position in corn and soybeans in the funds since May of 2026. In fact, you might argue that the funds are banking on more war, energy gains and China picking up in buying US soybeans. When they are long, farmers so to speak are riding the wave, when they go short, often times we end up in the drink. Here we are in April of 2026.

Keep in mind March 1st corn stocks were up 11% at 9.02 billion bushels the largest on record. Soybean stocks were at 2.01 billion bushels up 10% and the largest in ten years. Wheat stocks were the largest in five years. Simply put these onerous grain stocks are punching way below their weight. Grain prices spurred by oil and war have spawned an alternative fundamental universe, a least for the time being.

We move ahead with caution, but with market orders in the mix. War markets make everything volatile and violent. At the same time many of us will have started planting by the next time Market Trends in published. As the weeks move on so will the war risk, but it will be mixed with the inherit production risks we always face. The challenge for Ontario farmers will be to manage that risk. As always, daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 5, 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

In mid-March it is that time of year when planters are either rolling in the southern regions of the American corn belt or are being adjusted for the planting season that is almost upon us. It has been an eventful winter to say the least with prices advancing especially in the last few weeks with war breaking out in the Middle East between the United States, Israel, and Iran. War markets are never easy to explain, always filled with uncertainty. It will make it challenging as all of our planters get ready to roll. Amid all of this upset, the USDA released their latest WASDE report on March 10th.

The March USDA report was a bit of status quo compared to reports of the past. There were no domestic changes for corn soybeans and wheat but a few changes globally. US corn production is still pegged at 17.02 billion bushels with the yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. This is a huge number which should remain a benchmark for all producers this year. Total domestic use for US corn is still pegged at 13.17 billion bushels with ending stocks coming in at 2.127 billion bushels. USDA increased Brazil’s corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMTs. Argentinian Production was decreased by the same amount down to 30.7 MMTs.

These were all the same from the February report, but the US crush was increased slightly to 2.575 billion bushels. The total soybean usage was projected at 4.262 billion bushels reflecting the slight increase in the soybean crush. Soybean ending stocks are still projected to come in at 350 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was kept the same at 180 MMTS but Argentinian soybean production was actually decreased slightly down to 48 MMTs. US domestic wheat stocks were unchanged from 931 million bushels. Globally, wheat stocks were down slightly from the February report.

On March 14th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. May 2026 corn futures was at $4.67 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.91 bu. The May 2026 soybean futures was at $12.25 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.61. The May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.13 a bushel. The Minneapolis May 2026 wheat futures closed at $6.45 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.75 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of March 13th closed at $98.71/barrel much higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $62.89/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.16/gallon, up vs the $2.03/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on March 13th, 2026, was .7291 US, down vs the .7345 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

Winter is still holding on in Ontario although there was a bit of a thaw in early March where much of the snow disappeared. On the weekend of March 14th some areas of Ontario were hit again with heavy snow. The winter wheat that has emerged from the snow looks quite good at this time. Producers will be hoping for good weather ahead.

Basis levels for grains have increased slightly over the last 30 days partly related to the Canadian dollar still under $0.73 and or the appreciation in grain futures value. There is not as much grain in Ontario bins as there usually is especially in eastern Ontario and basis does reflect this.

Basis levels in Ontario are also fluid and will probably continue to be throughout 2026 until harvest time. Yes, we still have a lot of empty space in eastern Ontario because of the drought last year. We will have to see how that changes depending on the crop develops this summer. On top of that we always have the movement of the Canadian dollar which will affect basis levels to producers. All of this is a moving target and something that producers always have to have their eye on.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.30 to $2.28 over the May 2026 corn futures on March 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.60 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.25 to $4.04 over the May 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $3.04 to $3.34 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.56. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $7.40/bu range. On March 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.89/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

Forget about what you been thinking, it’s all about the war now. About four years ago we saw what the Ukraine and Russia war did to the commodity market with wheat exploding higher. However, it was unexpected to some extent when the Americans and Israelis attacked Iran about 12 days ago and with that it upset the grain market apple cart. Funds who had been net short the market suddenly were exiting their positions. Also too, the price of oil exploded and there was spillover effect in grains. It simply is a new world in 2026.

Keep in mind it is so difficult to know where we’re going. Much of it will depend on how long it lasts but is likely to last long. The oil market was languishing in the $50s and $60s but now pushed up toward $120.00 briefly on the futures market. The Strait of Hormuz have been blocked which is transit to about 20% of the world’s oil. In many ways this is a Black Swan we didn’t see coming. For a world that is full of grain seemingly only a few weeks ago now there is a completely different planning horizon.

Prices have risen substantially over the last month and especially in the last two weeks. This is happening despite bearish fundamentals that have kept the lid on grain prices for quite some time. It will also probably raise the specter of extreme volatility as we could be facing a world calamity not seen in quite a few years.

The Brazil harvest in soybeans is coming to a completion and it is record setting once again. As these soybeans are being harvested, planters are in the fields with the second crop of corn for Brazil. This means that there will not only be the war risk, but we are also in a weather market watching how much moisture these new corn plants will be provided. There is a world of risk out there.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

With the war on going, it is no secret that prices are going higher for both fuel and fertilizer. With corn a bigger user of fertilizer than soybeans it would seem that the funds are remaining a little bit more neutral on the corn acres that could be planted this spring. We will find that out in the March 31st USDA report.

In the meantime, to some extent corn will follow the price of oil and the funds are setting up to go long depending on the immediate future. At the present time they don’t have a big, long position, but this could certainly change and when it changes to could change in a big way. However, the state of acres for 2026 is still in flux. Earlier the USDA had pitched 94 million acres of corn in their outlook conference.

The May 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents lower than the July 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2026 corn futures contract is at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

The soybean market has been fairly effusive even before the war started. It also is sensitive to the social media posts coming out of the White House. Earlier, the American president had said that he hoped China would come in and buy an extra 8 MMTs of soybeans in the immediate future. Since then, there hasn’t been any American beans sold and Brazilian beans are still a dollar a bushel below American values.

There is a meeting scheduled in Beijing between President Trump and President Xi at the end of March and early April. It’s hard to know now exactly what will come from this meeting especially with the war going on. However, it has not been beyond the realm of possibility that new soybean buying announcements would come from this meeting. However, the new price volatility caused by the war may eat that narrative alive. Earlier the USDA had mused about 85 million soybean acres for this year in the United States. That number will be refreshed on March 31st, and it certainly also will be enhanced by any announcement coming from the potential meeting of the leaders in Beijing.

The May 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 12.5 cents below the July contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 33rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There is wheat everywhere but keep in mind that this is war and wheat prices are up about a dollar a bushel since the end of January. With the war seemingly chasing out the market bears, it is likely that wheat prices will be a bit more sensitive to weather concerns going forward such as dryness in many of the worlds production areas where wheat is coming out of dormancy. It’s also true that wheat might just be explosive based on a volatile nature of war in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s hard to imagine wheat prices going back down in this environment but that spectre also exists.

In Ontario it is an important time coming up for wheat about to break dormancy. Fields in the deep southwest of the province are already very green and nitrogen application will likely take place very soon for the early birds. According to Agricorp there are 1,046,568 wheat acres this year in Ontario. Currently prices are about a dollar higher than they were last year for wheat off the combine in July of 2026.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to flutter around the 73 cent US level. The war has actually caused an increase in the value of the American dollar which is always negative for the Canadian dollar. This has continually added stimulus to Ontario gain crash prices. Keep in mind there is a war going on none and none of this is stable and as producers we must watch our currency fluctuations to capture good basis levels especially on soybeans.

It’s important to keep in mind then when it comes to grain marketing we’re still on the long road. Yes, we should expect extreme gyrations based on the geopolitics of the day. For instance, we all know that the price of oil is in the crosshairs. If it continues to go up possibly over $125.00 a barrel you could see the funds take their money and get it into grains. Keep in mind the non-commercial demand which is commonly referred to as funds will have no loyalty during this difficult time of war.

Of course, as always nobody knows what is about to happen. For new crop pricing surely there have been some market orders hit already as December corn was headed toward $5 and beans were headed toward $12.00. We also have the tremendous costs involved this year of higher fertilizer and higher fuel prices which seems to be getting worse after already being high. Much will depend on geopolitical events in the war, and much will depend on the price of oil and how much a jilted global economy becomes. Market orders can be one of the best ways to capture these price opportunities.

It is a long road to payday for Ontario grain producers. It might be argued that the latest geopolitical event with the problems in the Middle East is an opportunity and a gift along the marketing highway. This has happened despite grain fundamentals which are onerous suggesting price goes the other way. We need to set up for success. It is a difficult time for sure based on the war. Keep in mind risk management is a continual process and there will be many marketing opportunities ahead. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th.

As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels.

On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels.

On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of February 13th closed at $62.89/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $59.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, up vs the $1.97/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year’s crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre.

Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices.

This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher.

Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You’ve got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready.

A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too.

As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now.

We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the northern part of Mato Grosso have been affected by very rainy weather. Needless to say, with the USDA predicting 180 MMTs of soybeans being produced in Brazil surely it is a minor factor.

Brazil continues to be the titan of soybean production and harvest is continuing there at this time. Keep in mind that Brazil has had 19 straight season of production expansion and 75% of their exports go to China. Also keep in mind that Chinese demand growth for soybeans has been in concert with this production increase in Brazil. There is really no sign of this changing other than the fact you have to ask yourself the question can both China and Brazil continue to boost capacity on demand in production respectively.

The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15.25 cents below the May contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

There are strong wheat crops almost everywhere. As always, these crops are ready to fill supply gaps. There is also rain in the American southwest plains which will help the wheat crop. That’s a partial list of bearish factors with wheat so why is the price been going up recently? Some might argue the law of averages but there’s been some movement up in wheat based on the other commodities. However, it is a bearish environment. Funds have been short wheat since 2022. Breaking out of that might have to be led by soybeans or corn prices catching fire in the next few weeks.

In Ontario old crop wheat prices shot up above $7.00 in the last few weeks helping some producers who were tempted to store wheat from last summer. This reflected the increases in futures prices as well as the Canadian dollar still being relatively low in the $0.73 US range. With snow still inundating most of the Ontario wheat crop it is always difficult to know how and when to contract new crop wheat. Is it alive or is it not? As the snow recedes, we should get a better answer.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar has gained about two cents since the last Market Trends report. It is always hard to tell why but the American dollar has been dropping significantly starting about a month ago but has recently been rising getting within three points of its value on the US dollar index where it was in January. Usually, a 2 cent rise in the Canadian dollar means that basis values go down for Ontario producers. It is not as acute this time around but will likely be next time. Still, the Canadian dollar at $0.73 US will always be good for Ontario cash grain prices.

As now it stands Ontario farmers need to continue to watch the markets and keep an eye on South America. There is still time for something to change in the big crop that’s coming off there. Also keep in mind that we will have another March WASDE report coming up as well as the big Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. Then there are the Black Swans, those market events that happen which nobody sees coming. You tell me when they will happen.

The challenge for Ontario producers is to balance all of these market factors. It is difficult, but the profession we chose means risk is almost part of our lifeblood. Managing that risk is a continuing experiment for all of us. Markets will continue to be fluid but so will be our ability to price our grain. Each trading session is an opportunity for us. Daily market intelligence will be key. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Written by Philip Shaw BSc(Agr.)MSc.

Email: [email protected]

Social Media X @Agridome

US and the World

January always represents a pivotal time in grain markets as well as farms across the Great North American corn belt. There is always a recalibration but much of it usually has to do with the January USDA report which represents the final numbers on the crop put to bed last year. Future spreads and basis are important but so are the numbers in these USDA reports as they are dialed in to the trading algorithms which generate futures prices around the clock. The January report historically can be explosive for volatility.

This year was one of those years. On January 12th the USDA raised corn production to 17.02 billion bushels increasing yield by half a bushel as well as increasing harvested acreage. The corn yield is now forecast to be 186.5 bushels per acre which was way above pre report estimates. The USDA also bumped harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres pushing it up to 91.3 million acres. This was a shock to the market and nearby corn futures plummeted $0.24 on the day. Old crop carryover was bumped up to 1.551 billion bushels while new crop carryover was increased to 2.227 billion bushels.

While the corn number was wildly bearish, soybeans were much more benign in comparison to corn. The USDA had a slightly increased harvested acreage of 80.4 million. It kept yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre putting the total domestic crop at 4.262 billion bushels in 2025. The new crop ending stocks for soybeans totaled 350 million bushels which was up 60 million bushels from last month. The USDA increased Brazilian production to 178 MMTs while keeping Argentinian production at 48.5 MMTs. USDA set planted area for winter wheat in 2026 to be 33 million acres which is down 1% from last year and 2% from 2024.

On January 16th corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Wheat was higher. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.24 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.49 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.69. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.18 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of January 16th closed at $59.44/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.97/gallon, down vs the $2.04/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 16th, 2025, was .7188 US, down vs the .7263 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%.

Ontario

This is a more classic Canadian winter than we’ve had in the near past. Snow and cold temperatures have inundated large parts of the province which can be a double-edged sword. Yes, it is normal Canadian January weather but at the same time there is still some Ontario corn left out in the field. Also too, the snow cover will provide some insulation for the winter wheat lying dormant underneath it.

Basis levels are either the same or have increased slightly since the last Market Trends report. This reflects the Canadian dollar still fluttering below the 72 cent US level. The Ontario corn basis level is similar to what it has been in the past few years with the eastern Ontario basis being much higher than southwestern Ontario. This is historical but it also reflects dry weather experienced in much of eastern Ontario this year hurting corn yields.

Both corn and soybeans will be exported out of Ontario and Quebec this year. All of it is a reflection of price but it’s also a reflection of infrastructure. Port expansions and improvements at ADM Windsor, Port of Oshawa, the new Picton terminals, the Port of Goderich, and the Port of Johnstown will only help grain movement. Exports are one thing and value-added domestic opportunities are another. The latter would be preferable and hopefully many new value-added projects are in the pipeline

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.26 over the March 2026 corn futures on Jan 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.55 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.91 to $3.11 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.61. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.57 bu. range. On January 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.32/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

The USDA hit us pretty hard with the big surprise hardly anybody expected. When you see the USDA final number on corn come in outside the various trade estimates it means almost everybody was surprised. Of course, the biggest surprises were the increase in yield and the much bigger corn harvested acreage increase. One might ask how does the USDA predict 4.5 million acres of corn harvested then they predicted last July? It’s fuel for the conspiracy theorists.

It will likely be a few years before we truly understand what happened. However, one theory that is being reported is the good crop with good yields filled up bunker silos with silage earlier than normal. What happens when these silos are full, then the rest of the corn goes into the pipeline and shows up in harvested acreage. There was a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres which would result in 200 million bushels of additional yield. The market simply was not expecting this.

The USDA report was not particularly bearish on soybeans compared to corn. However, acreage was up slightly. Keep in mind that crush statistics are very good in the United States reflecting their commitment to biodiesel. For instance, the soybean crush is up approximately 285 million bushels over the last two years. There are commitments for an increased share of soybeans going to biodiesel. In 2025 this number was 3.3 billion gallons for biodiesel. The hope is to get it up to 5.5 billion gallons in 2026 and beyond. This blending credit equation is possibly being delayed by the supreme court considering the legality of tariffs. The blending credit is highly political and will be affected by the run up in the midterm elections.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

17.02 billion bushels of corn was a real wake up call for the corn market and it is hard to shake the big negativity. Keep in mind that old crop took the brunt of this and December corn held up relatively well. Last year December corn did not get above $4.80 a bushel and at the present time we’re hovering around $4.50 a bushel. It is splitting hairs but in a bearish environment that might be a positive.

Keep in mind that the 2.2 billion bushel ending corn stocks created by such a big crop puts a cushion on any price increase for old crop corn. However, keep in mind there is lots of risk ahead. We still have to get through the Brazilian Safrinha crop as well as our new North American corn crop. We are always only one weather event away from a price increase. The world needs the corn as demand is so strong.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 9th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Believe it or not even with the slightly bearish tone in soybeans from the USDA report, prices are still in a yearly uptrend. The decrease in price since mid-October might have dialed in a lot of the bearishness of late.

Keep in mind that the gorilla in the room China has already bought 12 MMTs of American soybeans and there is unlikely to be more. Trade wars might be easy to win but it’s pretty clear China is looking elsewhere for their soybeans. Who could blame them with Brazil set to produce another 178 MMTs soybean crop. This continues to weigh on soybean prices in both the short and long term.

The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

Wheat is bearish but what else is new. In fact, with such a bearish USDA report you would think that maybe wheat would join in sending everything down. However, that did not happen in many ways the wheat complex shook off the bearish nature of the move in corn. Also too, the Chicago futures contract has holding above the $5.00 level when there are probably a few reasons to go lower. In many ways, you might say that the wheat prices have the negativity already priced in. Keep in mind and the last USDA report had wheat domestic stocks and global stocks raised.

With Ontario wheat currently underneath, snow cover it is always hard to tell where we’re at. With the likely number around 1 million acres of wheat Ontario producers will be hoping for better prices. At the present time $6.57 for wheat off the combine this July doesn’t have a lot of people rushing to the sales trigger. However, we must remember that price is much better than we received last summer. As January grows older and February comes about, Ontario wheat producers will be hoping for better price prospects ahead. The Canadian dollar fluttering under $0.72 US continues to be a stimulus for cash prices.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar gained over 2 cents in December, and it looked like things might be improving. However, since then the Canadian dollar has settled again under $0.72 US which is adding stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. As per usual the Canadian dollar is usually valued as an inverse to the US dollar. However, at the present time gold and silver are surging almost as a hedge to the erratic behavior of the US dollar which is becoming a bit more volatile with some of the economic musings coming from the American administration. Will the Canadian dollar head into the $0.60 range or will it re-up and go back into the 80-cent range? It is also hard to tell but it will depend on how confident the currency traders are in Canada. That will have big implications for Ontario cash grain prices.

Geopolitics have been boiling in the first part of January. What we saw was the removal of the President of Venezuela and an ongoing push by the American administration to take over Greenland. At the same time, we have the same Russia and Ukraine war going on. Grain is being traded just like oil is being traded and there is enough geopolitical instability just to raise uncertainty further. This instability will affect our grain futures prices as well as our currency markets. We have to be ready for this instability to affect grain prices.

As January gets older keep in mind it is late summer in the southern hemisphere and those soybeans are growing well. There are some soybeans harvested in January in Brazil, but the main harvest will come along in February and March. This always holds out the possibility of a “weather market” affecting our grain futures prices. We need to be ready for that. It will likely happen.

The January 12th USDA will continue to reverberate throughout the grain complex. Make no mistake, it was negative on so many fronts especially for corn prices. However, put it in the rear-view mirror, hopefully there will be better times ahead for prices and maybe the USDA will shock us to the upside someday. The challenge for Ontario grain farmers has to balance all of these marketing factors. There are futures prices and then there are cash prices and then there is that big job of balancing what makes sense in Canadian dollars. As we move ahead, our crop planning for this year will continue. With that, our risk management challenge will continue to ramp up. Daily market intelligence will be key to future marketing decisions. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World

The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report.

The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year.

The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November.

On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel.

The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report.

The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%.

Ontario

Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested.

Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province.

Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar.

Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/

The Bottom Line

The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again.

Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble.

The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information.

Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues.

Commodity Specific Comments

Corn

Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report.

However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind.

The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Soybeans

Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south.

There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope.

The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.

Wheat

The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply.

In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April. However, as usual wheat is the only crop that we expose to four different seasons and there is a plethora of risk ahead. Cash prices for wheat at $6.50 per bushel do not offer Ontario wheat producers profitable opportunities when all things are considered. However, keep in mind and nothing ever stays the same especially when it comes to prices and market orders should be set to capture good wheat pricing opportunities over winter.

The Bottom Line (cont.)

The Canadian dollar continues to add stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. A key driver in the Canadian dollar’s continuing trade relationship with the United States and as we all know that’s a pretty tough one. It is hard to know how that is all going to work out. At the same time the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 2.25% earlier which is bearish to neutral for the Canadian dollar. At a certain point the Canadian dollar is going to turn up, but of course it’s very difficult to know when. Needless to say, when it does turn up it will have a negative impact on Ontario cash grain prices. The challenge will be to continue to balance our foreign exchange concerns with grain futures prices.

Our geopolitical world continues to churn. The Ukraine Russia war has dominated much of this concern over the last 3 1/2 years. It continues with almost daily reports of peace initiatives led by the Americans. The grain market especially for wheat and corn seems to have neutralized their trading algorithms with regard to the war. It seemingly doesn’t matter anymore. However, as always it is a big concern and hopefully in 2026 will come to an end. At the end of the day, if peace ever reaches that region agriculture production should increase substantially.

As mentioned earlier, South American weather will remain top of mine for every producer whether they’re in Ontario, Iowa or in Mato Grosso Brazil. At the present time about 59% of Argentinian soybean planting has been completed according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. It is rated at 58% good to excellent. Meanwhile our Brazilian friends have 90% of their soybean crop planted. Yes, even though it’s cold outside watch for news regarding weather markets forming out of South America.

As we careen into the new year there certainly will be many challenges for those of us on the farm. One constant that we will always have is building our marketing plan to manage all the risks that we have looking forward. 2026 will be no different. There is a record crop behind us, and there is a record crop in front of us. However, demand is growing, and you never know when some butterfly will be causing chaos somewhere. Sometimes the best laid plans don’t happen, and markets start to gyrate. Yes, even in 2026 risk management will not grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead.

The post Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.