The Red Line

As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force. Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia. On the panel this week:  Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 03:57 PART II - 1:02:23 PART III - 1:45:30 Outro - 2:10:09 Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow our project partners on @OxusSociety and @ForecastIntl Support the show at:  / theredlinepodcast   Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com

The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities. On the panel this week: - Oleysa Vartanyan (Caucasus Analyst) - Laurence Broers (Chatham House) - Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe) Intro - 00:00 PART I - 05:24 PART II - 27:36 PART III - 58:08 Outro - 1:21:38 Read the Armed Forces of Central Asia Report: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/ Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at https://www.patreon.com/c/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

Conscription is a complex and multifaceted issue, influencing not only a nation's defence capabilities but also its economy and political landscape. With countries as diverse as Denmark, to the DRC, from Taiwan to Tajikistan, and even Austria to Armenia, having all adopted conscription. However, as different as each of these nations are, each of them is now facing unique challenges, constraints, impacts and benefits from the practice. So what are the true economic advantages and drawbacks of conscription, should countries like the US, the UK and Germany be looking at its reimplementation, and can it serve as an effective deterrent in modern conflicts? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul O'Neill (RUSI) - Pvt. Gona (Conscript in the Finnish Army) - Eric Crampton (New Zealand Initiative) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:51 PART 2 - 28:47 PART 3 - 43:13 Outro - 56:39 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are beginning to expand their influence in the global security market, with thousands of these companies now operating in over 40 countries. Despite legal restrictions preventing them from being armed, these firms are increasingly finding ways to circumvent such regulations. This raises critical questions: Will China leverage these companies to bypass international rules, engage in grey-zone combat, or establish footholds for future military bases abroad? We delve into these issues with our expert panel. On the panel this week: - Carl Peterson (Militant Wire) - Nick Thompson (Anduril) - Alessandro Arduino (King’s College London) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:38 PART 2 - 30:11 PART 3 - 45:35 Outro - 59:02 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/