Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante

At CES 2026, Jensen Huang once again reset the economics of AI factories. In particular, despite recent industry narratives that Nvidia’s moat is eroding, our assessment is the company has further solidified its position as the hardware and software standard for the next generation of computing. In the same way Intel and Microsoft dominated the Moore’s Law era, we believe Nvidia will be the mainspring of tech innovation for the foreseeable future. Importantly, the previous era saw a doubling of performance every two years. Today Nvidia is driving annual performance improvements of 5X, throughput of 10X…driving token demand of 15X via Jevons Paradox.

In this Breaking Analysis, David Floyer and I set forth our thinking around what we believe is a misplaced narrative in the market. We’ll explain what we think the market is missing and why NVIDIA’s forthcoming product lineup will reset the narrative. We’ll also look at the economics of search, LLMs and chatbots and share why OpenAI, while facing many challenges, is in a stronger position than many believe; and why Google, while clearly a leader in AI, remains challenged to preserve what many believe is the greatest business in the history of the technology business.

Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante

Much attention has been focused in the news on the useful life of GPUs. While the pervasive narrative suggests GPUs have a short lifespan, and operators are “cooking the books,” our research suggests that GPUs, like CPUs before, have a significantly longer useful life than many claim.