Pentagram Advisory Pty Ltd invites you to watch and / or listen this recording of our recent article about the risks that war with Iran poses to Australia's critical infrastructure entities.
Whilst critical infrastructure entity attack surfaces span a myriad of threat vectors, including cyber attacks, Pentagram's article focuses on the people component - those people employed within Australia's critical infrastructure entities as possible sources of harm.
Iranian expatriates in Australia are of course especially vulnerable to Iranian government interference, coercion, and espionage. Australia, as a compassionate pluralist society, will see our first instinct be to offer assistance and protection to this group. But we must also appreciate that there is a risk, likely from a very few Iranians, that there could be insider threats, either coerced of volunteering to undertake acts of harm against Australia's critical infrastructure.
We also must appreciate that Khamenei was not just head of the Iran theocracy, but was a global Shia leader and sponsor of terror. On that basis, non-Iranian Shia and anti-Westerners may also be aggrieved by Khamenei's assassination at the beginning of the war, and by the ongoing war. Such people may also be coerced or volunteer to cause harm in Australia.
This is a challenging topic, rife for rendering by some people as a dog whistle for discrimination based on religious or ethnic affiliation. That can be one way to view this matter.
Another way to view discussion about this threat is to admit to the reality that we have evidence of Iranian government acts that have, and continue to, intimidate Iranian expatriates living in Australia. Further, the Iranian Government has sponsored violence in Australia. And that was before the war!
Do we ignore reality, and the increased likelihood of Iranian Government action against Australia (there are reports of increased cyber attacks from Iranian sources), or do we shy away from known and potential harms to Australia for fear of offending a small group of people?
Remember, vanishingly few people will evolve to become pro-Iranian insider threats, more are likely to be coerced to act or volunteer to act. Either way, the harm is the same. To protect Australia's critical infrastructure, a key foundation of Australia's national security, leaders need to understand the reality of the threats we face and that requires the courage to engage with difficult challenges as explored in the article.