Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

My guest today is Noah Shinn. Noah is the founder of Instinct, a personal assistant that you text, call, or email the same way you would a person. It has its own phone and its own computer, and it can do almost anything on your behalf that you would do yourself online. Instinct is about a year old, still invite-only, and growing roughly 10% day over day without any marketing spend.

We discuss the surprising ways people are already using Instinct, the trusted network that lets two people's agents coordinate directly, and what Noah has learned about how long it takes users to trust an agent with their credit card, inbox, and calendar. He explains why he refuses to build an ad model and why he believes a personal agent should never influence users against their own interests.

We also cover the take rate model behind the more than $1 billion a year now flowing through the platform, how travel and food delivery businesses should prepare for a world of agents, why he spends 40% of his time thinking about compute, and why he believes all of software will eventually collapse into one simple interface.

Please enjoy my conversation with Noah Shinn.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

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⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

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Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

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WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

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Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

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⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Timestamps:

(00:00:00) The Most Exciting Software Race Ever

(00:00:49) What Instinct Is

(00:04:11) The Wildest Things Users Have Done With Instinct

(00:07:15) The Instinct to Instinct Trusted Network

(00:13:24) How Agents Will Reorder the Internet

(00:14:44) Reinventing Restaurant Reservations

(00:17:23) Travel and $1 Billion in Transaction Volume

(00:21:00) How Users Learn to Trust an Agent

(00:23:25) Keeping Sensitive Data Safe

(00:26:08) Alignment and the Business Model

(00:31:07) Take Rates and the Payments Stack

(00:34:52) When Incumbents Push Back on Agents

(00:40:46) How Businesses Should Prepare for Agents

(00:44:43) Designing for Understandability

(00:48:15) Taste Versus Data

(00:50:03) Invite-Only Growth at 10% a Day

(00:54:46) How Far Ahead to Buy Compute

(00:56:58) The Cost to Serve Each User

(00:59:24) How Much Compute Proactive Agents Will Need

(01:02:30) Thoughts on Muse

(01:03:59) Mistakes and Staying Proactive

(01:05:34) The Future of Security

(01:08:32) Where the Interface Goes Next

(01:12:35) Agents That Pursue Goals

(01:14:35) Personality and the Movie Her

(01:16:27) Why It's Called Instinct

(01:17:34) Allies, Enemies, and Distribution Channels

(01:18:43) Raising Capital

(01:20:34) The Kindest Thing

Gabe Stengel is the co-founder and CEO of Rogo, the AI platform for finance. He believes the best investors will spend the next several years reinventing their firms around AI, and Rogo is trying to build the infrastructure that allows them to do it.

We discuss how Rogo evolved alongside the frontier models, why the last mile and the harness around the models matter so much, what happens when every portfolio manager can deploy thousands of agents against a problem, and how AI could transform the way capital is raised, assets are priced, and deals get done.

We also cover which investing skills become more valuable as AI improves, the move from seat-based to outcome-based pricing, Rogo’s internal company brain called Shrek, the 40 investor rejections Gabe received before his Series A, why building in applied AI requires extraordinary aggression, and what it takes to become a black hole for talent and capital.

Please enjoy my conversation with Gabe Stengel.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

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Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:01:24) The Model Eras of Rogo

(00:04:15) Why the Last Mile Mattered

(00:06:14) Who’s Using Rogo Right Now

(00:10:55) Which Investor Skills Still Matter

(00:12:23) Inside Rogo's Data Stack

(00:14:33) Competing With the Frontier Labs

(00:16:57) Why the Harness Matters Most

(00:18:05) What Makes a Vertical AI Winner

(00:22:00) How Firms Buy AI Software

(00:23:43) From Seats to Outcome Pricing

(00:31:19) Auditability Beats Accuracy

(00:32:55) Scaling Enterprise Sales Fast

(00:34:48) Meet Shrek, Rogo's Company Brain

(00:35:49) The Pitch to Great Talent

(00:39:37) What Chewing Glass Feels Like

(00:42:18) Forty Investor Rejections

(00:47:41) Finance's Innovator's Dilemma

(00:50:22) Questions Every Firm Should Ask

(00:53:09) What Remains Most Uncertain

(00:56:46) Becoming a Black Hole for Talent

(00:57:56) The Kindest Thing

Michael Moritz led Sequoia Capital for nearly two decades and backed some of the defining companies of the internet era.

In his new memoir, Ausländer, he turns his attention to his own family, Jewish refugees who fled Nazi Germany and rebuilt their lives in Wales.

We discuss the imprint his parents left on him, the method he used for decades of asking founders about their childhoods and the Time profile that ended his relationship with Steve Jobs.

We also also cover Lee Iacocca, why Don Valentine hired him, Alex Ferguson's approach to managing players, Elon Musk, and why Mike still struggles to feel proud of anything he has done.

Please enjoy my conversation with Michael Moritz.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:16) Where Does One Person End?

(00:11:15) The State of the World Today

(00:15:08) The Unlived Life of Parents

(00:17:33) Lee Iacocca, Eternal Outsider

(00:21:03) His Most Revealing Question

(00:26:03) Resisters, the Silent, and Collabos

(00:33:30) The Profile of Steve Jobs

(00:38:04) Frank Auerbach's Total Obsession

(00:41:04) Why Don Valentine Hired Michael

(00:46:44) Building Sequoia

(00:49:49) What Michael Learned from Alex Ferguson

(00:52:57) The Great Man Theory

(01:00:36) Defining Extraordinary Writing

(01:03:40) Stepping Back From Sequoia

(01:06:54) A Philosophy of Parenting

(01:09:00) The Next Book: Iran

(01:11:44) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Walter Russell Mead. Walter is a columnist at the Wall Street Journal and the author of Special Providence and God and Gold, two of the best books written on American power.

He has spent decades studying how the United States came to dominate the world, and our conversation is about whether it can keep doing so.

Walter lays out the five step playbook that carried the Dutch, then the British, then America to global leadership, and why the same pattern keeps beating centralized continental powers.

We discuss how Trump turned fame into power, the four schools of American foreign policy and the rise of the tech Hamiltonians, what the drone war in Ukraine means for the Pentagon, and why the erosion of deterrence is the deeper story in the Middle East.

Please enjoy my conversation with Walter Russell Mead.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:02:16) America and the World Today

(00:05:34) Trump’s Method of Power

(00:09:43) Why America Keeps Winning

(00:12:25) The Five-Point Plan for Global Dominance

(00:20:11) China and American Power

(00:22:10) The Risk of American Isolationism

(00:25:50) Technology and Global Power

(00:28:42) Riding the Technological Wild Horse

(00:34:29) Four Schools of American Foreign Policy

(00:40:22) The Rise of Tech Hamiltonians

(00:43:51) India and the Next Great Powers

(00:48:54) The Risks of the Information Revolution

(00:51:30) How Technology Is Changing War

(00:55:06) Taiwan

(00:57:20) The Future of American Society

(01:00:44) What It Means to Be American

(01:03:25) Iran and the Middle East

(01:06:28) The Erosion of Deterrence

(01:08:53) America’s Role in the Next 20 Years

(01:12:08) AI and Global Power

(01:14:26) Reasons for Optimism

(01:16:33) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Sarah Guo, founder and managing partner of Conviction, the venture firm she built to back AI-native companies from their earliest days.

Sarah has become one of the most sought-after early-stage investors in AI, often the first check into the companies defining the frontier.

In this conversation, we go inside that frontier: what the small group of people actually building AI believe right now, why some of the field's best researchers are wrestling with their own sense of purpose, and how close we are to robots in the home and a genuine acceleration in scientific discovery.

At the center is Sarah's conviction that no single company will own the future of AI, and what that means for founders, investors, and anyone allocating their time and resources in a world moving this fast.

Our managing editor Dom Cooke wrote a profile of Sarah for Colossus, "Sarah's Wager," on how she built the firm closest to the AI frontier and why she's now betting against its biggest companies.

Please enjoy this conversation with Sarah Guo.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:02:16) Investing Without a Backtest

(00:03:31) The AI Wager

(00:06:16) Building the Best Investment Firm

(00:08:37) Finding Non-Obvious AI Opportunities

(00:11:00) The Frontier AI Talent Race

(00:13:50) Compute as the Constraint

(00:19:10) The Future of Robotics

(00:22:15) Making Investment Decisions

(00:26:13) How Sarah Spends Her Time

(00:28:15) Raising a Venture Fund

(00:30:49) Lessons From Her Parents

(00:34:38) The Case for Open Source AI

(00:39:01) Abundant Intelligence Isn't Inevitable

(00:40:55) Compute Independence

(00:43:14) Debates Inside Conviction

(00:45:27) AI's Opportunity in Biology

(00:48:58) Why Conviction

(00:50:31) Finding Truth and Taking Risk

(00:54:16) What Changes in the Next Year

(00:56:46) The Kindest Thing