RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know:
• First, with the US summer ending and fall getting underway, we refresh our thoughts on the US equity market outlook in terms of both the near term (where we think risks of a tier 1 / garden-variety pullback have grown) and the longer term (where we remain constructive and reiterate our 12-month S&P 500 price target of 8,150, noting that upside risk exists if interest rate fears recede).
• Second, after taking a break from our Pulse report over the past few weeks, we run through some of the key things that jump out in our other updates in terms of valuations, flows, capex, and Small Caps.

The big things you need to know:
First, we took a look back at equity market and sector performance in 2H18 and 2H22, around the last two midterm elections. Conditions were choppy with two distinct drawdowns interrupted by a meaningful rally. Consumer Staples and Health Care outperformed during the drawdowns while Financials, Industrials, and Materials outperformed in the rebounds.
Second, other things that jump out in our updates this week include shifts we’re seeing in our factor work, descriptions of a cautious consumer in our earnings call transcript analysis, the tendency of the stock market to perform well when IPO activity is ramping up, and what we see as reasonable valuations across the major indices in the US.

The big things you need to know:
First, takeaways from last week’s meetings with Australia-based investors, in which our conversations focused on inflation / interest rates / the Fed, the US midterm elections, and the rotation trade.
Second, key big-picture themes in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls included a cautiously optimistic tone among companies, consumer descriptions that seemed a little more complicated than usual, a renewed conversation on Iran war impacts, heightened attention to inflation pressures, and increasingly specific commentary from non-Tech companies about AI impacts.
Third, other things that jump out in our weekly updates include the recent spike in gold prices (which has occurred alongside a drop in presidential approval), recent improvements in the 2Q26 S&P 500 EPS growth rate (which now appears to be the peak), and recent developments in sector funds flows (where Consumer flows have turned positive and Tech flows have stayed positive, among other trends).

The big things you need to know:
First, valuation opportunity is opening up in the US equity market from a variety of perspectives.
Second, in the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, we highlight how the stock market tends to experience choppy performance in the first few months under a new Fed Chair.
Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the return of high EPS quality outperformance as a factor in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, the modest uptick in stock market optimism in the Conference Board consumer survey that was out this week, and what we’re watching on the midterms (which we continue to see as a risk factor in the months ahead).
Fourth, we’ve gone through our monthly refresh of the models that feed into our 12-month S&P 500 price target and are sticking with our 8,150 forecast, though we continue to believe that the path for stocks will not be a linear one.

The big things you need to know:
First, the stats for 2Q26 reporting season have continued to come in mixed, arguing for selectivity rather than a leadership rotation, in our view.
Second, last week’s earnings commentary from S&P 500 companies reiterated the themes of resiliency and AI tailwinds, but didn’t give us much insight on how to think about recent war developments.
Third, we review how we’re thinking about the role of the retail investor in today’s US equity market, which differs in some respects from the past, and how we’re monitoring risks on this front.
Fourth, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the return of S&P 500 Semi & Semi Equipment valuations to average levels and the bright spots we’re seeing in our quant work on Japan.