#284 Melody Wright: We're In An Insane Housing Bubble Fueled By Speculation That's Worse Than 2008
Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 203517:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal"24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts
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#283 Warren Pies On The Widening Perception Gap In Macro, Why A Rate Cut Is Inconsequential,
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:18 Big picture framework 5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era8:00 Fiscal dominance10:49 Jackson Hole speech 12:18 Labor market loosening 16:06 Immigration impact 17:31 Inflation stickiness 21:44 Widening perception gap in macro 26:23 Housing market outlook 30:07 Equity positioning 32:35 Bond allocation35:36 Gold outlook 37:06 Bitcoin allocation38:28 AI optimism 42:45 Closing remarks
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#282 Jim Bianco: Fed Chair Powell 'Caved' In Jackson Hole, A Rate Cut in September Would Be A Mistake
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed the economy, while Trump's immigration crackdown created net negative population growth for the first time in 50 years, making current job creation numbers of 35,000 monthly actually appropriate rather than concerning. Bianco warns that cutting rates with high inflation risks repeating last year's policy mistake when long-term rates rose anyway, and predicts tariffs will continue weekly rather than being one-time events. Despite concerns, he's optimistic about AI creating net positive job growth and transforming the economy.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Welcome and introduction0:38 Big picture reaction - Powell caved and will cut rates in September1:50 Why rate cuts aren't the right move - interest rates appropriately valued3:45 Inflation destroys economies - 35-40% of workers not getting 3% raises6:15 Path to 2% inflation - pandemic changed everything permanently8:59 Immigration's hidden impact - biggest driver of population growth10:26 Border shutdown changes everything - net negative immigration for first time11:53 Job creation numbers make sense - 35,000 jobs fine with no population growth12:50 Labor force participation - only way to boost jobs is wage inflation15:11 Long bond implications - tremendous flow into fixed income16:45 Risk profile investing - boomers should focus on fixed income17:48 Retail investor dominance - buying every dip since Liberation Day20:41 Will Powell cut? - 90% probability but market wants limited cuts22:00 Supply vs demand problem - for hire signs but no applicants24:03 Biggest risk - tariffs will continue weekly, not one-time event26:29 AI optimism - will eliminate 50 million jobs but create 70 million better ones
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#281 Peter Grandich: The Stock Market Is 'Very Vulnerable' To A Crash Or Hard Fall, More Concerned Than 1987, 1999 or 2007
Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarizationLinks: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6
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#280 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Won't Be Cutting Rates In September
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen 1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5%14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q431:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 202834:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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