The Property Couch

In this Friday Fundamentals episode, Luke Oxenham and Polly Chu unpack a common property investing myth:
Waiting for the perfect time before you start.
From interest rates and market cycles to cost of living, family plans and global uncertainty, there always seems to be a reason to hold off.
But as Luke and Polly explain, waiting for perfect certainty can sometimes leave people sitting on the sidelines for years.
This episode explores how to plan for uncertainty before buying property, including stress testing your repayments, modelling higher interest rates, allowing for rental changes, planning for holding costs, and keeping cash buffers in place.
They also discuss why trying to time the bottom of the market can be difficult, and how big life goals should be considered before building an investment strategy.
Got a question or a “hill” you want us to unpack? Send it through here 👉 https://thepropertycouch.com.au/topics/
Timestamps
00:23 – Welcome back to Friday Fundamentals
 00:41 – The myth: waiting for the perfect time
 00:55 – Why people feel they need to wait
 01:13 – There’s always another reason to hold off
 01:43 – Why uncertainty feels uncomfortable
 02:19 – How planning helps manage uncertainty
 02:22 – Running the numbers before buying
 02:36 – Modelling higher interest rates
 03:21 – Planning for worst-case scenarios
 03:31 – Rental income, holding costs and maintenance
 04:07 – Stress testing your loan repayments
 04:39 – Why cash buffers matter
 05:06 – The danger of using every dollar to buy
 06:20 – Should you wait for a particular time?
 06:38 – Why waiting for the market to turn can take years
 07:08 – The problem with timing the bottom
 08:08 – Waiting for life to settle down
 09:24 – Big life decisions vs borrowing capacity
 10:04 – The big rocks in the jar analogy
 10:26 – Final takeaway: there is no perfect time
LISTEN TO THE FIRST 20 EPISODES HERE >>

MOORR MONEY MANAGEMENT APP:
👉 Apple: https://apple.co/3ioICGW
👉 Google Play: https://bit.ly/3OT86bW
👉 Web platform:  https://www.moorr.com.au/     

FREE MASTERCLASS:
- How to Build a Property Portfolio and Retire on $2,000 a week >>

FREE BEST-SELLING BOOKS:
- The Armchair Guide to Property Investing
- Make Money Simple Again

FIND US HERE:
- Website
- Instagram
- Facebook
- Youtube

Two months on from the Budget's negative gearing and CGT changes, the data is telling a clear story. In our latest episode, Ben sits down with couch crew Luke Oxenham, investment-savvy mortgage broker, and Polly Chu, Qualified Property Investment Advisor, both fielding real client conversations daily. 
Together, they're unpacking what's actually happening on the ground: auction clearance rates stuck below 50% for weeks (the worst run since 2018), open home attendance down 43% year-on-year, and the lending data driving it all. 
How lenders scrambled to rewrite borrowing power calculators within days of Budget night — some borrowers lost up to $160K in capacity overnight 
Why majors and smaller lenders are treating investment debt so differently 
What AFG's lodgement data really reveals about first home buyers, upgraders and investors 
The shift toward interest-only loans as borrowers protect negative gearing and build buffers 
Why this cautious market might be the smartest time for new investors to prepare — and what "prepared" actually means 
Tune in to hear the conversations happening behind closed doors right now. 

RESOURCES MENTIONED
Free Webinar: New vs Established Property — What Should You Buy in Today's Market? 🎙️
The rules have changed. Should your strategy? Join us live to unpack the real numbers behind buying new vs established in today's market.
📅 Tuesday, 28 July 2026, 7:30pm AEST
👉 Register free 
Free Borrowing Power Calculator 💰
Curious what you could actually borrow right now? Run your numbers through Moorr's latest feature and get clarity in minutes. 
👉 Get financial clarity now  
Free Personalised Lending Chat 📞
Want to know exactly where you stand? Have a free, no-obligation chat with our team and get a lending assessment tailored to you.
👉 Book your free chat today. 
 
Between rate rises and rewritten legislation, it's a lot to keep up with. Got a question?👉 We've got you! Send it in for our upcoming Q&A Day >>  
 
Resources from this week’s episode  Ray White: Open homes are quieter, but attendance may be stabilising 
Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment July 
AFG brokers lodge $28.1 billion in home loans in Q4 FY26 
The Advisor:  FHB pullback almost as steep as investor retreat 
Majors’ share slips as Westpac tops AFG lodgements 

Broker Daily: Westpac forecasts slump in investor activity following budget 

LISTEN TO THE FIRST 20 EPISODES HERE >>

MOORR MONEY MANAGEMENT APP:
👉 Apple: https://apple.co/3ioICGW
👉 Google Play: https://bit.ly/3OT86bW
👉 Web platform:  https://www.moorr.com.au/     

FREE MASTERCLASS:
- How to Build a Property Portfolio and Retire on $2,000 a week >>

FREE BEST-SELLING BOOKS:
- The Armchair Guide to Property Investing
- Make Money Simple Again

FIND US HERE:
- Website
- Instagram
- Facebook
- Youtube

(Webinar) New vs Established Property: What Should You Buy in Today’s Market? - Tuesday, 28 July @ 7:30PM 👉 www.thepropertycouch.com.au/registernow
With the government’s new tax settings encouraging investors towards new property, one big question is starting to dominate the conversation:
Does a better tax benefit automatically make a new property the better investment?
In this special Tuesday episode, Ben breaks down the equation every property investor should consider before choosing between a new build and an established property.
Because while tax savings can make an investment look attractive today, they are only one part of the bigger picture.

Free Stuff Mentioned: New vs Established Property Webinar
Want Ben to unpack the numbers, historical performance and trade-offs in more detail? Join the free live webinar:
📅 Tuesday, 28 July 2026
🕢 7:30 pm AEST
Register here:
https://thepropertycouch.com.au/registernow/
Places are limited, so make sure you register early.

Timestamps
00:36 – Should tax savings influence your property choice?
00:56 – The property investment equation explained
01:32 – What happens to carried-forward property losses?
02:25 – Comparing two $800,000 investment properties
02:51 – New property vs established property growth
03:17 – Can tax benefits make up for lower capital growth?
04:30 – How to compare total property investment returns
05:33 – When buying a new property can make sense
07:07 – Property market risks, supply and oversupply
07:24 – Free suburb research and property data in Moorr

Have a Property Data Question?
We will be sharing more Tuesday property data dives. Submit the topics, locations or market questions you would like them to unpack at the comment section below or send it in here: https://thepropertycouch.com.au/topics/

LISTEN TO THE FIRST 20 EPISODES HERE >>

MOORR MONEY MANAGEMENT APP:
👉 Apple: https://apple.co/3ioICGW
👉 Google Play: https://bit.ly/3OT86bW
👉 Web platform:  https://www.moorr.com.au/     

FREE MASTERCLASS:
- How to Build a Property Portfolio and Retire on $2,000 a week >>

FREE BEST-SELLING BOOKS:
- The Armchair Guide to Property Investing
- Make Money Simple Again

FIND US HERE:
- Website
- Instagram
- Facebook
- Youtube

In this Friday Fundamentals episode, Shane Pope and Luke Oxenham share what they wish more clients knew before buying property.
Shane starts with the negotiation side, unpacking how agents can create pressure and urgency during a deal — and why buyers often have more space than they realise to make a calm, quality decision.
Luke then explains the finance side, including why settlement length is often less important than the finance clause, cooling-off period, and the time needed to secure unconditional approval.
Together, they cover the parts of buying property that can feel stressful, confusing or rushed — and how better preparation can help buyers avoid poor decisions.
If you’re planning to make an offer, this is a useful episode to listen to first.
Got a question or a “hill” you want us to unpack? Send it through here 👉 https://thepropertycouch.com.au/topics/

⏱️ Timestamps

00:27 – Welcome back to Friday Fundamentals
01:09 – What Shane wishes more buyers knew
01:11 – Why agent pressure can feel so intense
01:34 – Can buyers push back on offer deadlines?
01:59 – Why buyers can be firmer with agents
02:24 – Creating space to make better decisions
03:01 – Why first home buyers can feel like they’re bidding against themselves
03:20 – Going radio silent and using time as a tell
03:49 – Why timing matters in negotiations
04:06 – Case study: negotiating a lifestyle property
04:26 – Four other buyers at the table
04:54 – Why a good buyer’s agent can help
05:13 – What Luke wishes more buyers knew
05:33 – Why unconditional approval matters
05:54 – Finance clauses and lender timeframes
06:12 – Why brokers plan for the worst-case scenario
06:45 – Why the first week matters most
07:04 – Buyer pressure before and after settlement
07:41 – Final thoughts and send in your questions

#ThePropertyCouch #PropertyBuying #BuyersAgent #MortgageBroker #propertytips
LISTEN TO THE FIRST 20 EPISODES HERE >>

MOORR MONEY MANAGEMENT APP:
👉 Apple: https://apple.co/3ioICGW
👉 Google Play: https://bit.ly/3OT86bW
👉 Web platform:  https://www.moorr.com.au/     

FREE MASTERCLASS:
- How to Build a Property Portfolio and Retire on $2,000 a week >>

FREE BEST-SELLING BOOKS:
- The Armchair Guide to Property Investing
- Make Money Simple Again

FIND US HERE:
- Website
- Instagram
- Facebook
- Youtube

(Upcoming webinar - 7:30pm AEST, Tues, 28th July) New vs Established Property: What should you buy in today’s market? Register here: https://thepropertycouch.com.au/registernow
Do owner-occupier suburbs have better capital growth?
New Cotality research suggests the answer is often yes — particularly when it comes to units.
Between 2010 and 2026, units in owner-occupier-heavy areas grew by 99%, compared with 65% in investor-heavy suburbs. Applied to the national median unit value at the beginning of that period, that represents an estimated $148,000 difference in capital gains.  
But does that mean investors should simply avoid any suburb with a high share of renters? Not quite. 
In this episode, Ben Kingsley is joined by Gerard Burg, Head of Research at Cotality Australia. Gerard brings more than two decades of experience analysing economic and industry trends across government and the private sector, including his previous role as a Senior Economist at NAB.  
Together, they unpack what Cotality’s ownership-composition research really tells us, why the relationship is so much stronger in the unit market, and how liveability, amenity, renovation activity and future housing supply can influence long-term performance. 
They also explore the risks of investor-heavy apartment markets, the potential consequences of pushing more investors towards new builds, and what the latest listings and lending data reveal about Australia’s property market in 2026.

Free Stuff Mentioned
(LIVE Webinar!) New vs Established Property: What should you buy in today’s market? Have recent tax changes made new property the obvious choice for investors? Join us on Tuesday, 28 July at 7:30 pm AEST as we unpack the real numbers, risks and trade-offs behind buying new versus established property.👉 Register for the free webinar
Cotality’s Owner-Occupier and Investor Research  👉 Read the research and download the full analysis or learn more about Cotality here
Moorr’s Suburb Search Feature: Looking for more suburb data? Check our Moorr’s brand new feature: Suburb Search! Research over 30,000 Australian suburbs with just a few clicks. Explore monthly-updated market data, compare locations, uncover hidden opportunities and access suburb-level insights to help you invest with greater confidence. 👉 Learn more

Timestamps 
01:23 – Should You Buy New or Established Property After the Tax Changes?
02:28 – Meet Gerard Burg, Head of Research at Cotality Australia
03:21 – Money Story: Growing Up as the Youngest of Five Children
09:19 – How Gerard Found His Way Into Economics and Property Research
14:16 – How the Rental Ratio and Ownership Research Was Calculated
15:27 – Do Owner-Occupier Suburbs Have Better Capital Growth?
17:15 – How Ownership Composition Created a $148,000 Difference
20:00 – Why Schools, Transport and Liveability Influence Property Values
23:29 – Why New Apartment Supply Can Limit Capital Growth
27:00 – How Investors Should Use a Suburb’s Rental Ratio
32:23 – How the New Tax Settings Could Change Investor Behaviour
37:05 – Could New Housing Estates Become the Next Investor-Heavy Markets?
39:29 – Rental Guarantees, Oversupply and Concentration Risk Explained
44:27 – The Practical Property Research Lessons Investors Can Apply
46:08 – Australia’s Property Market Outlook for the Rest of 2026
46:36 – Are Rate Rises or the Federal Budget Driving the Market Slowdown?
51:00 – Are Regional Property Markets Still Outperforming the Capitals?
53:57 – What Rising Listings Tell Us About Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane
56:31 – Interest Rates, Borrowing Capacity and the Signals to Watch Next
LISTEN TO THE FIRST 20 EPISODES HERE >>

MOORR MONEY MANAGEMENT APP:
👉 Apple: https://apple.co/3ioICGW
👉 Google Play: https://bit.ly/3OT86bW
👉 Web platform:  https://www.moorr.com.au/     

FREE MASTERCLASS:
- How to Build a Property Portfolio and Retire on $2,000 a week >>

FREE BEST-SELLING BOOKS:
- The Armchair Guide to Property Investing
- Make Money Simple Again

FIND US HERE:
- Website
- Instagram
- Facebook
- Youtube