Why do leaders with vast expert bureaucracies at their fingertips make devastating foreign policy decisions? Tyler Jost, professor at Brown, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his first book, Bureaucracies at War, a fascinating analysis of miscalculation in international conflicts.
As we travel from Mao’s role in border conflicts, to Deng’s blunder in Vietnam, to LBJ’s own Vietnam error, a tragic pattern emerges — leaders gradually isolating themselves from their own information gathering systems with catastrophic consequences.
Today our conversation covers…
How Mao’s early success undermined his long-term decision-making,
The role of succession pressures in both Deng’s and LBJ’s actions in Vietnam,
The bureaucratic mechanisms that lead to echo chambers, and how China’s siloed institutions affect Xi’s governance,
The lingering question of succession in China,
What we can learn from the institutional failures behind Vietnam and Iraq.
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1:21:22
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1:21:22
Second Breakfast: Xi-Trump, Taiwan Deterrence, Tibetan Buddhism, Antietam
Featuring the Kirsten and Charlotte Asdal alongside Tony (https://www.breakingbeijing.com/) Eric Robinson, Justin (https://justinmc.substack.com/) and myself
Chapters
02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling
05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did?
08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations
24:12 Blockades
28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology
43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections
44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights
Outtro music: suno' s version of bad bunny singing about antietam. I promise I won't do this for every episode outtro until the AI gets better.
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53:49
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53:49
Ukraine's Drone War with Shashank and Rob Lee
Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.
We discuss…
Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.
Outro music: Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f)
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1:34:32
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1:34:32
Japan's New Prime Minister: What to Expect
Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy.
Chapters:
00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama
07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style
24:27 National Defense and International Relations
40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability
48:33 Implications of a Minority Government
01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump
Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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1:14:28
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1:14:28
Ukraine's Drone War with Shashank and Rob Lee
Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.
We discuss…
Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.
Outro music: Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f)
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.
Check out the newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media/
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