Today’s guest is Bryan Taylor, founder and chief economist of Finaeon, which has the most comprehensive database of historical financial market data in the world. He's just published Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World.
In today’s episode, Bryan explains his TWIG framework of trade, war, inflation, and government, and how their combination drives returns across centuries of market history. He challenges the belief in a fixed equity risk premium and revisits seven decades of negative real bond returns. To close, Bryan explains why the post-1981 playbook no longer applies.
(0:00) Starts
(1:25) Sponsor: Ivy Invest
(2:37) Bryan Taylor explains the TWIG framework
(10:20) There is no single equity risk premium
(21:18) Government debt, market capitalization, and global market position
(26:17) The impact of technology revolutions on markets
(28:30) Historical changes in investment trends
(38:22) Cultural shifts in investing
(47:36) Evolution of stock market indices and future projects
(52:03) Currency discussion
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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-----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
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