The Canadian Real Estate Investor

In this news episode we discuss how inflation-adjusted home prices have fallen back to 2017 levels, despite appearing stable nominally. Housing starts hit record numbers in 2025 but momentum is fading, with the Bank of Canada holding rates at 2.25%ahead of its January 28th decision. Meanwhile, inflation rose to 2.4% in December, with renters experiencing 4.9% annual rent growth while homeowners saw just 1.3% inflation.
Real estate has lost real value: While home prices dropped only 4% year-over-year, inflation-adjusted prices are back to 2017 levels, with weak sales driven more by buyer hesitation than affordability.
Housing construction momentum is fading: Despite 2025 being the fifth-best year for housing starts, the six-month average has been declining since September, with economic uncertainty pushing builders toward smaller projects.
Renters face much higher inflation than homeowners: Renters experienced 4.9% annual rent growth in December—the fourth-largest jump since 1988—while homeowners saw only 1.3% inflation.
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We are joined by Fred Cassano, Partner and National Real Estate Leader at PwC Canada, discussing the state of Canadian real estate markets around the ULI Emerging Trends report.
Market in Transition: The real estate market is experiencing mixed sentiments with a sense that it may be hitting bottom.
Office Market Recovery: Office leasing is seeing renewed activity, particularly for trophy assets, driven by return-to-work mandates.
Housing Supply Crisis: Canada needs to build 500,000 homes annually to meet demand, with government initiatives like BCH addressing supply issues.
Capital Market Shifts: Private capital is filling gaps left by large institutions, with foreign investment in Canadian real estate increasing.
Emerging Opportunities: Senior housing presents strong investment potential due to years of undersupply, while retail remains resilient by adapting to consumer needs.
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Nick & Dan are joined by Journalist & Podcaster Amber Kanwar for a discussion on her career journey in finance, the "In The Money" podcast, real estate investing (strengths, misconceptions, evolution in Canada, current market challenges), the Canadian economy's trajectory, and financial advice for young Canadians entering real estate.
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Nick & Dan explain Canada's Principal Residence Exemption (PRE) and Section 45(2) elections, focusing on how to protect tax-free capital gains when buying a second property. The discussion covers how capital gains work in Canada (50% inclusion rate), the PRE's tax-free benefit, and the critical Section 45(2) election that allows homeowners to continue claiming their former home as a principal residence for up to 4 years after converting it to a rental.
One exemption at a time: You can only designate one property per year as your principal residence, but buying a second property doesn't immediately eliminate the exemption on your first home
Section 45(2) election protects you: When converting your home to a rental, this election prevents a deemed disposition and lets you continue claiming it as your principal residence for up to 4 more years—but you must not claim depreciation (CCA) on the property
Change-of-use creates tax exposure: Without the Section 45(2) election, moving out and renting your home triggers a deemed disposition at fair market value, potentially creating a taxable capital gain even though you haven't actually sold
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Canada's banking system is dominated by just six major institutions (the Big Five plus National Bank), which control over 80% of banking assets. While this concentration was designed for stability, it creates limited competition and flexibility compared to the U.S., which has thousands of banks with diverse underwriting philosophies.
Illusion of choice: Canadians feel like they have banking options, but are essentially rotating through six institutions that behave similarly in terms of rates, underwriting, and credit requirements.
Designed for stability, not competition: Canada's concentrated banking system was intentionally created post-Depression to prioritize safety over flexibility, which helped avoid failures during the 2008 crisis but limits competition.
Different bank personalities: Each of the Big Six has distinct lending approaches—RBC prefers "vanilla" borrowers, TD is systems-driven, Scotia is unpredictable, BMO is business-friendly, CIBC is mortgage-aggressive, and National Bank is regionally focused.
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