The Follio Property Podcast

Last week was the worst week for the Australian property market in all of 2026, with Sydney alone down almost half a percent in seven days. But the more useful question is how far each market actually falls from here, and Lachlan Delahunty has the data to answer it.

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In the first of the new weekly market update, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down seven days of Cotality data across every capital city. They walk through Sydney's worst weekly fall on record this year, why prestige suburbs are being hit far harder than the affordable end, and why Melbourne's sub one million dollar market is running hot even as the median keeps sliding.

The core of the episode is the affordability index, the share of the average wage consumed by the average mortgage, and how it predicts when a market tops out and how far it corrects. On today's numbers, Sydney sits well above its historical ceiling and would need to fall around 12% to return to it, while Melbourne sits well below its ceiling with real runway left. Lachlan also explains why Brisbane's run may be ending, why the end of the SMSF lending window may have driven this particular week, why he believes you shouldn't be selling into a falling market without a reason, and where the next cycle is likely to begin.

What we cover:

✅ Why last week was the worst week for property in 2026
✅ What Lachlan meant by "the worst is behind us," and what he now stands corrected on
✅ Sydney's worst weekly fall on record this year and why prestige is hurting most
✅ Why Melbourne's sub one million dollar market is one of the hottest in the country
✅ Brisbane hitting its affordability ceiling and the oversupply risk building
✅ Adelaide and Perth, and how the SMSF deadline may have shaped the week
✅ How the affordability index predicts exactly how far each market falls
✅ Why Sydney may need to fall around 12% while Melbourne has runway left
✅ The widening gap between house and unit prices and the opportunity it creates
✅ Why Melbourne may lead the next cycle, and why Follio stays cautious on Darwin

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: the worst week for Australian property in 2026
03:21 What "the worst is behind us" actually meant
05:49 Sydney: the worst weekly fall on record this year
07:28 Why the prestige markets are hurting most
08:44 Melbourne: why the sub one million dollar market runs hot
11:40 Brisbane: the wheels come off and the oversupply risk
13:09 Adelaide, Perth and the SMSF deadline effect
18:00 The affordability index: how far each market can fall
30:32 The cycle: why Melbourne may lead the next decade
33:46 Darwin: why Follio stays cautious

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

Key Themes:
Australian property market update | affordability index | Sydney property market | Melbourne property market | Brisbane property market | Perth property market | house prices falling 2026 | units versus houses | property market cycle | Follio property podcast

#AustralianProperty #PropertyMarketUpdate #PropertyInvesting #HousePrices #AffordabilityIndex #SydneyProperty #MelbourneProperty #BrisbaneProperty #PerthProperty #PropertyMarket2026 #RealEstateAustralia #CotalityData #PropertyCycle #FollioPropertyPodcast

New lending figures show investor activity down 8.6% and first home buyers still falling, and yet the more surprising story is where the price falls are actually landing: the most expensive suburbs, not the affordable ones.

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Three major data sets landed on the same day, and Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break all three down live. They start with the ABS lending figures to June, why the post-budget drop is smaller than expected but only captures half a month of the fallout, and why the next quarter will likely be far more significant. Lachlan also explains why banks losing volume could make debt easier to access over the next six to twelve months.

From there they turn to the migration data, where permanent arrivals rose while short-term arrivals fell, and what a shift toward skilled migration means for housing and the economy. Then into the Cotality figures: how far each capital would fall in a downturn scenario, why Melbourne may be closer to its floor than any other market, and why the prestige end is taking a far bigger hit than the affordable end. They close on investor share by state, including Victoria at 41% and Tasmania at a striking 73%, and the case building around Melbourne heading into the Victorian election.

What we cover:

✅ ABS lending data: investor activity down 8.6% and why the next quarter will be worse
✅ The RBA hold, easing US inflation, and the odds of one more rate rise this year
✅ Why banks losing market share could make borrowing easier soon
✅ Migration data: permanent arrivals up 7.8% while short-term arrivals fall
✅ Cotality peak prices and how far each capital would fall in a 20% downturn
✅ Why Melbourne may be near its floor and set to rebound fastest
✅ The two-speed economy across Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth
✅ Why prestige suburbs are falling four to five times faster than affordable ones
✅ Investor share by state: Victoria at 41% and Tasmania at 73%
✅ The Melbourne outlook heading into the Victorian election

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: three data releases in one day
01:02 ABS lending data: investor activity down 8.6%
03:40 The RBA hold, US inflation and the rate outlook
06:36 Migration data: permanent arrivals up, short-term down
09:48 Cotality: peak prices and the downturn scenarios
11:21 Why Melbourne may be near its floor
14:17 The two-speed economy: Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth
16:40 Why the prestige markets are falling fastest
21:18 Investor share by state: Victoria 41%, Tasmania 73%
22:12 The Melbourne outlook and the Victorian election

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

Key Themes:
Australian property market update 2026 | abs lending data | investor lending Australia | migration data Australia | Cotality property data | Melbourne property market | prestige property market | two speed property market | Tasmania investor share | Follio property podcast

#AustralianProperty #PropertyMarketUpdate #PropertyInvesting #ABSData #InvestorLending #FirstHomeBuyers #Migration #CotalityData #MelbourneProperty #SydneyProperty #PrestigeProperty #TwoSpeedMarket #RBA #InterestRates #FollioPropertyPodcast

Every capital city is now flat or falling, some markets by more than 1.5% a month, and yet Lachlan Delahunty just put an offer on a unit complex in Melbourne. This episode is about why the two things aren't a contradiction.
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Back in the studio together, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty work through the questions clients ask most often. They start with the big one: is now actually a good time to buy? Lachlan makes the case that the market is running at five different speeds, why buying into heavily falling markets is a mistake even when everyone is quoting "be greedy when others are fearful," and why a softer market is exactly where a disciplined buyer finds undervalued assets.
From there they cover the real risk in investing outside your home state, and why the cost of doing so is usually dwarfed by the upside of buying in the right market. They break down the post-budget question of whether to upgrade your home or buy your first investment property, why units and townhouses have become far more compelling since the negative gearing changes, and what the latest KPMG forecast says about unit price growth. The episode closes on how couples with very different risk appetites can align on a single strategy.
What we cover:
✅ Is now a good time to buy, and why "markets within markets" changes the answer
✅ Why buying into a falling market is different from buying selectively in a soft one
✅ The real risk of investing interstate, and why a $50K cost can be worth a far larger upside
✅ Why you don't invest to save tax or reduce your land tax bill
✅ Upgrading your home versus buying your first investment property after the budget
✅ Why units and townhouses have become more compelling since the negative gearing changes
✅ What the KPMG forecast predicts for unit price growth versus houses next year
✅ How replacement cost and undersupply support the case for units
✅ How couples with mismatched risk appetites can align using cash buffers and worst-case planning
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: client FAQs and the state of the market
02:50 Is now a good time to buy?
03:59 Why buying into falling markets is a mistake
05:54 The opportunity in a softer market: being selective
07:00 Interstate and cross-state investing risk
14:53 Upgrading your home versus your first investment property
19:48 Units and townhouses versus houses
21:48 The KPMG forecast: units to outperform houses next year
24:36 Aligning couples with different risk appetites
About The Follio Property Podcast
Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.
📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au
📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/
Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/
Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions
Key Themes: 
Australian property market 2026 | Australian housing market | property investment australia | real estate Australia | capital growth vs cash flow | first home buyer strategy | interstate property investing | units vs houses | PPOR vs investment property | negative gearing changes Australia
#AustralianPropertyMarket #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateAustralia #AustralianHousingMarket #PropertyInvesting #FirstHomeBuyer #InvestmentProperty #CapitalGrowth #CashFlow #InterstateInvesting #UnitsVsHouses #NegativeGearing #FolioPropertyPodcast #AustralianRealEstate #PropertyMarket2026

The rate of decline in Sydney and Melbourne is easing. Melbourne's auction clearance rate just jumped from 55% to 63% in a single week. And banks are now launching 40-year investor loans. Here is what all of it means.

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This is the first episode of Follio's new Monday segment — every week Reece and Lachlan break down the live weekly data Follio tracks as a business: auction clearance rates, weekly and four-week median price movements, listing data, and lending trends. Real numbers, no headline lag.

In this episode:

Sydney down 1.34% over four weeks, Melbourne down 1.02% — but the rate of decline is now easing

Melbourne auction clearance rate jumps from 55% to 63% in a week — what that signals

The two-speed market in real numbers: upper quartile down 3.5%, lower quartile neutral to positive

Sub $1M Melbourne and sub $1.5M Sydney: multiple offers, faster days on market, competitive auctions

Perth listing data declines for the first time in 10 to 12 weeks — a stabilisation signal

Spring rebound potential: why Brisbane and Perth could be first to move

Is now the best time to upgrade your home in years? The market math explained

Mortgage lodgements down 25 to 30% nationally: NAB down 15%, AFG down 20%

AMP launches a 40-year investor loan with 10-year interest only — and non-bank lenders are about to go further

REIA forecasts rents rising $8 per week, not the government's $2 — what that means for investors

00:00 Introduction: Follio's new Monday weekly data segment
01:00 Sydney and Melbourne weekly numbers: what the data is actually showing
03:30 Auction clearance rates: Melbourne jumps from 55% to 63%
04:30 The two-speed market: upper quartile down 3.5%, lower quartile neutral to positive
06:00 Green shoots: why Lachlan believes the worst of the decline is behind us
07:00 Around the grounds: Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide stagnation explained
09:00 Spring rebound potential for Brisbane and Perth
11:30 The upgrader opportunity in Melbourne and Sydney right now
14:30 34,000 first-time investors in negative equity — the honest advice
19:00 AMP's 40-year investor loan and the 2027 rebound blueprint

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

#PerthPropertyMarket #WARentalMarket #REIWA #RentalCrisis #NoGroundsTermination #InvestorExodus #AustralianPropertyMarket #HousingSupply #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #RentalReform #FollioPropertyPodcast

Perth relies on private investors for 85% of its rental homes. Victoria just lost 642 in a single month, Queensland 332, and REIWA President Suzanne Brown explains why WA could be next.

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In this episode of the Follio Property Podcast, host Reece Beddall sits down with Suzanne Brown, President of REIWA and Director of RentWest, with over 35 years of property experience across Western Australia. This is a deep dive into the Australian property market, investor sentiment, and the incoming rental reform set to reshape the WA rental market by next year. We unpack the East Coast investor exodus (Victoria lost 642 rental properties in a single month, Queensland lost 332), why Perth's 2% vacancy rate is already critically tight, and why no-grounds termination legislation, despite sounding tenant-friendly, could push more investors out of the rental pool and worsen the housing supply crisis for renters. Suzanne also explains the end of the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS), its impact on 1,500 WA tenants, and why REIWA believes government housing supply policy is ignoring the demand side of the equation.

What you'll learn in this episode:

Why investors provide 85% of WA's rental housing and what happens when they leave the market

The real numbers behind the East Coast investor exodus and what it signals for Perth

How no-grounds termination reform could backfire on the tenants it's designed to protect

Why Victoria's rental reform model is being called WA's "guinea pig" policy

The financial reality landlords face when trying to remove a tenant (it's not as simple as $50 a week)

What happened when the NRAS scheme ended and why 1,500 WA tenants were left without a safety net

Why REIWA believes government is solving the supply problem while ignoring renter affordability 

How REIWA's 90% industry membership gives it direct influence over WA property policy 

The rise of buyer's agents in WA and what accreditation now requires 

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: Suzanne Brown, REIWA President
03:10 The East Coast investor exodus:
05:20 Why WA relies on investors for 85% of rental supply
07:00 Perth's 2% vacancy rate and the risk of a 3% investor exit
09:15 Why investor sentiment has turned
12:30 No-grounds termination explained
15:45 The real cost of moving a tenant, and Victoria versus London
21:00 REIWA, government engagement and the stamp duty windfall
24:10 The end of NRAS and 1,500 WA tenants
28:00 Raising the bar on buyer's agents and accreditation

Suzanne Brown:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzanne-brown-rentwest/
REIWA: https://reiwa.com.au/
RentWest: https://www.rentwest.com.au/

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

Key Themes:
Perth rental market 2026 | WA rental reform | no-grounds termination | REIWA | investor exodus Australia | Perth vacancy rate | property investment Australia | tenant rights and housing supply | buyers agent accreditation

#AustralianPropertyMarket #RentalMarketAustralia #REIWA #PerthPropertyMarket #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #RealEstateAustralia #WARentalMarket #NoGroundsTermination #HousingSupplyCrisis #InvestorExodus #RentalReform #PropertyManagementAustralia #FollioPropertyPodcast #AustralianRealEstate #TenantRights