The Follio Property Podcast

Twelve months ago we called a handful of Melbourne suburbs for growth. Today those picks are up more than 6% while the wider Melbourne market fell close to 10%, a swing of around 16%. Lachlan Delahunty explains why they held up, and where the value is heading into 2027.

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Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty revisit the Melbourne suburb predictions they made on the podcast a year ago and grade their own calls. Despite a year of rate rises, trust lending changes, debt-to-income caps and the budget's negative gearing changes, the suburbs they backed have outperformed their long-term growth rates, while the ones they warned against have flatlined.

Lachlan explains the fundamentals behind the difference: landlocked suburbs with limited new supply, owner-occupier rates above 80 to 90%, strong school catchments, and infrastructure spending per person well above the state and national average, versus the investor-saturated, oversupplied fringe estates where new build product keeps dragging values down. He then looks ahead to 2027, why the sub one million dollar bracket is the sweet spot as first home buyers and investors compete in the same price point, what the proposed Victorian stamp duty and land tax changes could mean if they come in, why cash flow now matters more since the negative gearing changes, and why asset selection, not just the right suburb, is where most investors go wrong.

This is general information, not personal advice, and reflects the hosts' views. Every situation is different, so speak to a professional about yours.

What we cover:
✅ How our Melbourne suburb calls from 12 months ago actually performed
✅ Why the picks beat the wider market by around 16%
✅ The fundamentals behind the suburbs that held: supply, owner-occupiers, schools, infrastructure
✅ Why the investor-saturated fringe estates flatlined
✅ Why new build product keeps dragging down fringe values
✅ Why the sub one million dollar bracket is the sweet spot into 2027
✅ What proposed Victorian stamp duty and land tax changes could mean
✅ Why cash flow matters more since the negative gearing changes
✅ Why asset selection, not just the suburb, is where investors go wrong
✅ Why less than 5% of inspected properties pass Follio's due diligence

⏱️ Chapters:
00:00 Intro: reviewing our Melbourne predictions
01:40 Markets within markets: what the headlines miss
02:40 The suburbs we backed, and how they performed
04:20 The suburbs we warned against, and why
06:00 Why quality locations held through the macro shocks
08:00 The investor belt, serviceability and the sweet spot
10:00 Why asset selection is where most investors go wrong
13:00 The Victorian election and proposed policy changes
15:00 What Lachlan is buying now: cash flow and fundamentals
16:40 Using PropStack to compare suburbs yourself

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

Key Themes:
Melbourne property market | melbourne suburbs to watch | markets within markets | property predictions review | Melbourne 2027 outlook | asset selection property | first home buyer Melbourne | property due diligence | Follio property podcast

#AustralianProperty #MelbourneProperty #PropertyInvesting #MarketsWithinMarkets #PropertyPredictions #SuburbReview #PropertyStrategy #PropertyMarket2027 #FollioPropertyPodcast

Is your property portfolio stuck in the wrong market? This real client case study breaks down how strategic selling created $1.5M in extra equity.

Get Access To PropStac 👉 https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_104

Discuss Your Portfolio 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_104

Join hosts Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty on the Follio Property Podcast as they walk through a live Australian property portfolio review, from a $2.76M Victoria-heavy portfolio in 2021 to a $4.71M diversified portfolio today. If you're a property investor, portfolio owner, or buying investment property in Australia in uncertain conditions, this is essential viewing for real estate Australia in 2026.

WHAT YOU'LL GET FROM THIS EPISODE:

✅ How $660K equity became $2.25M equity by selling underperformers and buying in growth markets

✅ Why holding Pakenham, Ballarat and Bendigo was costing this investor $1.5M in opportunity cost

✅ Perth vs Brisbane vs Victoria: why Mount Lawley and Ashgrove outperformed Geelong West

✅ The PropStack portfolio review framework Lachlan uses to decide what to sell, hold or buy next

✅ How LVR dropped from 76.1% to 52.2% while growing from $2.76M to $4.71M in total value

✅ Buy and hold vs active management: when selling is smarter than holding in a market cycle

✅ What's next: why selling Brisbane to buy wholesale in Melbourne could be the next smart move

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: buy, sell or hold in uncertain times
02:00 The portfolio in 2021: four assets, maxed out in Victoria
04:30 Why Pakenham was the first to sell
08:00 The honest conversation: telling a client they made a mistake
10:00 The three-year plan: what was sold and what was bought
11:40 Why Geelong West was the one to keep
12:50 $660K held versus $2.25M restructured
14:00 The Perth and Brisbane assets, and why they were chosen
19:00 Why buy-and-hold can be lazy investing
21:40 The advice now: shifting capital back to Melbourne

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

KEY THEMES:

property portfolio review Australia, real estate Australia investing strategy, sell underperforming investment property, Perth property market growth, Brisbane property market growth, Victoria property market performance, property diversification strategy Australia, equity growth through property, LVR and debt management property, opportunity cost property investing

#AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #PropertyInvestingAustralia #PropertyPortfolioAustralia #BuyPropertyAustralia #PerthProperty #BrisbaneProperty #MelbourneProperty #VictoriaPropertyMarket #PropertyInvestment #InvestmentPropertyAustralia #WealthThroughProperty #PropertyMarketAustralia

Has the Australian property market bottomed out? Property experts break down what's really happening with real estate in Australia right now.
Get Access To PropStac 👉 https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_103
Discuss Your Portfolio 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_103
Join hosts Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty on the Follio Property Podcast as they debate whether Sydney has hit the bottom, compare Australia's housing market to sharp corrections in New Zealand and Canada, and reveal how to buy property Australia-wide in uncertain conditions. If you're a property investor, first-home buyer, or following interest rates, cash rate decisions, migration and negative gearing changes, this is essential viewing for the Australian property market in 2026.
WHAT YOU'LL GET FROM THIS EPISODE:
✅ Why claims Sydney has bottomed out are premature - and what's still to come
✅ Australia vs New Zealand vs Canada: why our falls were smaller and what protects us
✅ How cash rates, tax policy and Labor's migration settings are shaping prices
✅ The yield curve rule Lachlan uses to tell when prices won't get any cheaper
✅ How mortgage stress is creating discounted opportunities for ready investors
✅ Why timing the exact bottom is a mistake - and how to buy well anyway
✅ Regional vs capital city: when higher yield is worth the extra risk
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: has the market actually bottomed?
03:25 Comparing Australia to New Zealand and Canada
05:40 How far each market fell, and off what base
07:30 Why the budget did more damage than two rate rises
08:00 The yield signal: how to identify a market bottom
11:40 Migration, rent caps and what we can learn overseas
16:40 Where the real opportunities are in a downturn
20:40 Why waiting for the bottom is a mistake
24:30 Capital cities versus regionals
28:30 Off-market deals and getting asset selection right
About The Follio Property Podcast
Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.
📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au
📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/
Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/
Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions
KEY THEMES:
Australian property market bottom, Sydney property market analysis, real estate Australia investing strategy, New Zealand and Canada housing crash comparison, cash rate Australia impact on property, negative gearing and tax policy, Australian migration and house prices, rental yields vs interest rates, off-market property opportunities, regional vs capital city investment Australia
#AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #SydneyProperty #PropertyMarketAustralia #BuyPropertyAustralia #PropertyInvestingAustralia #AustraliaHousingMarket #SydneyRealEstate #InterestRatesAustralia #NegativeGearing #PropertyInvestment #FirstHomeBuyerAustralia #HousingCrashAustralia

Most of the headlines treat Australian property as one market that's all falling at the same pace. Lachlan Delahunty breaks down the seven forces that actually drive property values, and why they explain exactly which markets are protected and which are not.

Get Access to PropStac 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_102

Discuss Your Portfolio 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_102

Australia's residential market has wiped nearly a trillion dollars in value in six months, with high interest rates at 4.35% cash rate and a 20-30% drop in lending crushing borrowing capacity. But this is not one market, it's markets within markets. In this episode, we unpack the 7 key forces shaping property values right now: interest rates, credit availability, tax and policy, income and employment, sentiment expectations, supply and affordability, and external shocks.

You'll learn why Sydney and Melbourne remain most sensitive to rate rises and face continued declines, why Brisbane and Adelaide are declining at a slower pace despite hitting affordability peaks, and why Perth, Darwin and Canberra are protected in 2026 thanks to severe supply shortfalls, jobs growth and high incomes. Plus: why low consumer sentiment could mean the best opportunities for sophisticated investors, and why major government intervention to stimulate credit and policy is likely in 2027.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

✅ Why the Australian property market will continue to fall for the rest of 2026, but less aggressively

✅ The 7 forces driving house prices: rates, credit, tax, jobs, sentiment, supply & shocks

✅ Sydney property market vs Melbourne: why headlines will focus here

✅ Why Perth property, Darwin and Canberra are holding up (32,800 home shortfall in Perth)

✅ Brisbane property, Adelaide outlook and affordability peaks explained

✅ Property investment Australia strategy when sentiment is at historic lows

✅ What 2027 government stimulus could mean for rents, prices and your portfolio

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: the seven forces and the 2026 outlook
03:25 Interest rates and borrowing capacity
06:18 Credit availability
12:34 Tax and policy, national and state
16:06 Income, employment and population
18:58 Sentiment and the affordability index
26:26 Supply and the housing shortfall
28:03 External shocks
30:40 The 2026 outlook, market by market

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

Key Themes:
Australian property market | real estate Australia | Australia housing market crash | Sydney property market | property investment Australia

#AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #AustraliaHousingMarket #SydneyPropertyMarket #PerthProperty #BrisbaneProperty #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #AustralianRealEstate #HousingMarketCrash #InterestRatesAustralia #PropertyForecast2026 #FirstHomeBuyerAustralia #PropertyInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #HousingAffordability

Every capital city fell last week, except one submarket. Melbourne units are the only market in the country Cotalit y has showing growth, and Lachlan Delahunty explains exactly why, plus a real portfolio breakdown showing what to sell and what to buy in this environment.

Get Access to PropStac 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_101

Get In Touch 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_101

For property owners, the danger isn't the fall itself. It's the cash buffer. Holding less than a 5% buffer puts you on a knife's edge the moment financial stress hits, because that's when banks start looking to reclaim properties. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty argue that waiting 12 to 18 months in a downturn is the worst move available,  buyer pools thin out and price haircuts of 30 to 40% become the norm, not the exception.

For anyone doing property investment in Australia, this is the numbers-first conversation most investors avoid right up until the bank forces it. We go city by city across the Australian property market: why Melbourne is the only capital improving on the four-week rolling average, what's dragging Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth lower, why [Melbourne units] keep beating houses on the replacement cost argument, and how the shift away from auctions is changing how vendors negotiate in a soft market. Plus the difference between wholesale and retail unit purchases, how a 5.5%+ yield can turn a negatively geared property portfolio into one that pays for itself in the current interest rates environment, and what a pre-Christmas rate rise would do to prices into 2027.

What we cover in this Episode:

✅ Know your numbers before the market makes you: debt, true equity, debt-to-income and cash-to-debt

✅ Why a 2% cash buffer puts you one rate rise away from a forced sale, and the 10% floor that protects you

✅ Which regional assets go first, and what happens when investor demand leaves Townsville and Gladstone

✅ The FOMO-stage exit rule: why holding too long costs 30–40%, not 10–15%

✅ Selling with a tenant vs vacant, and which buyer pool you're actually pitching

✅ Commercial at 5.5%+ vs high-yield residential: which fits a cash-flow-negative portfolio

✅ Wholesale vs retail units: how buying a whole complex in one line lands a discount

✅ Why land exposure beats "air space" in a 200-unit tower

✅ Melbourne units trading $300K–$500K below replacement cost, and what that means for capital growth

✅ The two-speed economy and the 2009 playbook for what happens when rates fall

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: the portfolio and the market update
04:00 A real composite portfolio, broken down
05:51 Which two properties to sell, and why
11:20 Sell now or wait, and with or without a tenant
15:52 What to buy instead: commercial or Melbourne units
16:47 Wholesale versus retail units explained
19:51 Melbourne units: the only market still growing
21:29 Auction clearance and the shift to private treaty
24:00 Units versus apartments: what to actually buy
29:42 The two-speed market and the rate outlook

About The Follio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/
📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

📲 Follow Us on Social:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw
Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/
Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions

Key Themes:

Australian property market | property investment Australia | property portfolio Australia | housing market Australia 2026 | property market update | investment property cash flow | cash buffer | debt to income ratio | Melbourne units | property market crash Australia 

#PropertyInvestmentAustralia #AustralianPropertyMarket #PropertyMarketUpdate #InvestmentPropertyCashFlow #CashBuffer #DebtToIncomeRatio #NegativeGearing #MelbourneUnits #MelbournePropertyMarket #PropertyPortfolio #InterestRatesAustralia #PropertyMarket2026 #AustralianRealEstate #InvestmentPropertyAustralia #PropertyInvesting