Australian Property Talk

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Three rate rises and one very anti-property budget have done something to the Sydney market that no bank forecast a year ago. The question we argue about in this episode isn't whether prices are falling. It's how far they go, and whether the worst of it has already happened on the ground while the data is still 6 months behind.

In this episode Curtis and I go city by city through what ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic are actually forecasting for the next 12 months, then put our own numbers next to theirs. Curtis calls Sydney at 15.1%, which would make it the biggest fall in 40 years. I land closer to 11 or 12%, and I explain why the composition of the Sydney market makes a 15% aggregate fall very hard to produce. We then work through Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, what listings are signalling in each one, and the single event that flips the whole market.

What you'll learn:
📍 What ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic have forecast for every capital city, and exactly where we disagree with them
📍 Why Sydney is behaving like two separate markets, and why the top end is wearing most of the fall
📍 The case for Western Sydney outperforming the national market over the next 5 years
📍 Why I think the trough was yesterday rather than tomorrow, and what a lagging data series hides from buyers
📍 Brisbane listings swinging from 40% below average to 8% above in the space of 7 months, on the lowest yields in the country at 3.3%
📍 Why Adelaide is capped by rents, and why Perth may still have room left in the tank
📍 The labour market numbers the RBA isn't reading, and why I think 6 to 8 rate cuts are coming

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#AustralianProperty #SydneyProperty #HousePrices #InterestRates #PropertyInvesting

Chapters
00:00 The bold call - Sydney's biggest fall in 40 years?
00:32 What the banks are predicting for the next 12 months
01:05 Sydney: the ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic numbers
02:24 Curtis says 15.1%. I say 11 to 12
03:20 Two Sydneys - the top end is wearing the fall
06:19 Western Sydney and the composition problem
07:50 The trough was yesterday, not tomorrow
09:32 Melbourne - the same story, smaller
12:23 Why prices shouldn't keep falling into next year
13:40 Where I'd be buying right now
15:00 Brisbane - listings flip from 40% below to 8% above
15:53 Listings across every capital
17:03 Brisbane on 3.3% yields - is the cycle over?
18:14 Adelaide - capped by rents
18:56 Perth - flat now, more in the tank
20:46 It all hinges on the first rate cut
21:19 The labour market the RBA isn't reading
23:04 Final take - sharp, shallow and nearly over
24:33 Why Western Sydney outperforms from here

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.
Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail
👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

Lending is the quietest part of property investing, and right now it is where most people are leaving money on the table.

Banks have gone from protecting their margins to fighting for your business. Owner-occupier rates are back in the high 5s, investor rates in the low 6s, and some lenders are throwing cashbacks at borrowers who ask to leave. That window does not stay open forever. As rates fall and lending volumes recover, banks stop fighting this hard.

In this episode I sit down with Curtis to unpack the specific lending policies that have shifted in the last few weeks. We cover the refinance war that is still running, the sudden pivot happening in SMSF lending, the rules tightening around trusts and companies, and a private banking policy that most investors have never heard of. We finish on a real client case that took 16 valuations to get across the line.

What you'll learn:
📌 Why the mortgage pricing war is still running, and roughly where owner-occupier and investor rates are sitting
📌 What a discharge request actually does, and why some banks only sharpen their pricing after you lodge one
📌 The SMSF pivot since 10 August: lenders can no longer write purchases, so they are chasing refinances instead
📌 The new "easy refinance" rules in SMSF: 12 months of ownership, a clean repayment history, and no servicing test
📌 The bad news on trusts and companies: guarantor loans appearing on credit files and much stricter accountant letter wording
📌 The net asset test inside the private banking arms of the major banks, and the debt level you need before it applies
📌 A real case study: 16 valuations ordered, 1 lender with a usable desktop valuation, 2 that passed servicing

If you want the lending side of property explained without the spin, subscribe to Australian Property Talk.

#PropertyInvesting #Refinance #SMSF #AustralianProperty #MortgageBroking

Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:38 Why a slower market is creating lending opportunities
1:44 The refinance boom and the mortgage pricing war
1:57 Discharge requests and which banks fight to keep you
2:55 Where investor rates are sitting right now
4:37 Why this window closes when the market picks up
5:04 SMSF: lenders pivot from purchases to refinances
5:25 The easy refinance rules, no servicing test
6:56 What it means if your SMSF rate starts with a 7
8:56 The bad news: trust and company lending is tightening
9:20 Guarantor loans now appearing on credit files
9:44 Stricter accountant letters and no-liability declarations
11:16 Do private banks ask the same questions?
13:34 The private banking net asset lending test
14:02 What actually counts as a liquid asset
16:16 The debt threshold to access private banking policy
20:40 Case study: the investor told he was maxed out
21:45 16 valuations, 1 lender that worked
24:07 What a harder lending market really demands

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.
Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail
👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

The CGT base resets on 30 June 2027. Once you understand what that single date does, a lot of what is happening in the market right now starts to make more sense.

Here is the mechanism. Gains made up to 30 June 2027 keep the existing 50% CGT discount. Gains made after that date fall under indexation instead, which in most cases is the less favourable of the 2. So the higher your valuation sits on that date, the more of your gain is protected by the old rules. Every investor wants that number high. The people counting the tax revenue have the opposite incentive.

In this episode Curtis and I work through 3 things: what the CGT reset actually does to your tax bill, what happened to the first home buyers who were pushed into the market on a 5% deposit in 2025, and why SMSF lending on residential property was removed at the same time large industry funds are being encouraged into build to rent. We are both ex-Treasury, so we usually explain policy rather than question the motive behind it. This one is different.

📍 How the 30 June 2027 CGT reset works, and why your valuation on that date matters more than your sale price
📍 A worked example where the same $200,000 gain roughly doubles the amount added to your tax bill
📍 Why a 2025 buyer on a 5% deposit in Sydney or Melbourne can be in negative equity within 6 months
📍 What negative equity actually means day to day: no refinance, no easy sale, effectively a mortgage prisoner
📍 Why fast-growth, buy-and-flip strategies are hit hardest by the new rules
📍 The SMSF residential lending ban, and the build to rent question it raises
📍 What we think changes in the next 12 months, and how to position for it rather than react to it

If you want the macro explained without the hype, subscribe.

#AustralianProperty #CapitalGainsTax #FirstHomeBuyer #SMSF #PropertyInvesting

Chapters
0:00 The claim: the government has an incentive to want prices lower
2:32 The 3 changes we unpack
4:04 Why the attack on aspiration gets to us
5:39 First home buyers and the 5% deposit scheme
9:23 Negative equity within 6 months
10:21 Running the numbers on a $1m Sydney purchase
14:02 The CGT reset on 30 June 2027 explained
15:14 Why a lower valuation on that date means more tax
18:57 Worked example: $800k to $1m, and double the tax bill
22:20 Who gets hit hardest by the new rules
25:36 SMSF lending ban and build to rent
27:55 Follow the money: where the questions get uncomfortable
30:43 What this means for the next 12 months
33:19 Closing thoughts and where to get help

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.
Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail
👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

We are in the middle of a giant property downturn - and the banks are falling over themselves to open the lending taps back up. Fixed rates are being cut and lenders are rewriting their rule books to get money out the door. To me, those are the early green-light signals that a new cycle is starting.

This is not about a flood of new purchases. It is about restructuring and optimising the portfolio you already own while the conditions are in your favour. In this episode I sit down with Curtis to break down the craziest new lending policies on the table right now and exactly how to use them.

What you'll learn:
📍 The early signals I watch to call the bottom of a property cycle - falling fixed rates and banks loosening their policies
📍 Why banks lending harder tells you they still see property as the safest asset there is
📍 AMP's 40-year loan term - a 30-year P&I assessment with up to 10 years interest only loaded at the front, for roughly a 5-10% borrowing boost
📍 Why that structure can be a jackpot when another bank assesses your existing debt
📍 Pepper's genuine 40-year term for stretching borrowing power on a new purchase
📍 Liberty joining the First Home Guarantee scheme - 5% deposit, government-covered LMI, with more flexible income rules
📍 The advanced play - separating who owns the property from where the debt sits, using an SPV, trust or company
📍 Why I think now is the window to buy your owner occupier at up to a 20% discount in the $2 million+ market

Subscribe for weekly, data-driven breakdowns of the Australian property market.

#AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #BorrowingPower #HomeLoans #FirstHomeBuyer

Chapters
00:00 Banks are opening the lending taps again
02:04 The green-light signals a new cycle is starting
04:39 Why banks lending harder means the bottom is near
06:24 Crazy policy #1: AMP's 40-year loan term
11:56 How much more you can actually borrow
16:46 Why it's a jackpot when you refinance elsewhere
21:04 Pepper's 40-year term for upgraders
22:14 Buying your owner occupier at a 20% discount
25:55 Liberty joins the First Home Guarantee scheme
31:47 The creative one: splitting ownership from debt
36:11 The opportunity inside the 2026 downturn

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.
Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail
👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

The lending market has shattered in the last 90 days. Purchases have gone quiet post-budget, so every bank in the country is now hunting for your business - and that has opened a refinance window we have not seen in years.

Here is the hot tip up front: if you have not reviewed your mortgage in a while, right now is when a proper look actually pays off. Rates are sharp, valuations are strong, and the banks are fighting over each other to win refinances.

In this episode I sit down with Curtis, who runs a $1 billion+ lending pipeline across every major bank, to unpack exactly what is happening, why it is happening, and the borrowers winning the most right now.

What you'll learn:
📍 Why the lending market flipped in 90 days, with NAB lending down around 20% and banks pivoting hard to refinances
📍 Why a slower-growth market means the biggest lever you have is your interest cost, not your next purchase
📍 The real rates now - owner occupier refinances into the 5.95% range, roughly 20 basis points off what most people are sitting on
📍 Why borrowers under 70-80% LVR with a decent loan size are getting the sharpest deals
📍 The 1% refinance buffer that can move you off a 7%+ non-bank rate, even without a full servicing assessment
📍 Why your borrowing power is about 20% higher on a refinance than on a purchase
📍 How desktop valuations across multiple banks can demonstrate a lower LVR and unlock a better rate

Subscribe for weekly, data-driven breakdowns of the Australian property market.

#AustralianProperty #Refinance #MortgageRates #PropertyInvesting #HomeLoans

Chapters
00:00 The lending market just shattered
01:34 Why banks are hunting refinances now
02:36 Slower growth means optimise what you own
04:08 What is really driving the mortgage war
06:27 The rates you can actually get today
10:04 The refinance window - and why it won't last
14:14 Who benefits, and who this doesn't apply to
14:50 Stuck with a non-bank at 7%? The 1% buffer
17:44 Why borrowing power is higher on a refinance
20:07 How desktop valuations work in your favour
21:12 Now is the time to review your rate

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.
Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au