CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Australia’s consumer spending has remained surprisingly resilient, but early signs suggest that may not last.
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Ashwin Clarke about how households are responding to rising cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. From higher petrol prices to broader cost-of-living impacts, they unpack how global shocks are filtering through to everyday spending and business activity.
Ashwin explains why household spending has held up so far, supported by savings buffers and a willingness to absorb short-term income shocks. But with sentiment deteriorating, real incomes under pressure and unemployment expected to rise, the outlook is becoming more uncertain.
Plus, CommBank’s Dr Hamid Yahyaei shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia’s housing market has remained resilient, but is the strong growth in home prices set to slow as interest rates rise?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about how the housing market has evolved and what’s driving price growth across the country. From rising interest rates to strong population growth and ongoing supply constraints, they unpack why conditions vary so widely between capital cities and what’s behind the ongoing pressure in the rental market.
Trent explains why price growth is expected to ease into late 2026, and how factors like mortgage rates, population trends and policy changes could shape the outlook. He also explores the potential impact of adjustments to the capital gains tax discount, and what it could mean for housing prices, rents and overall affordability.
Plus, CommBank’s John Oh shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The global economy is facing a new wave of uncertainty, but how much will the Middle East conflict slow growth and push interest rates higher?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geoeconomics Joseph Capurso about the impact of the conflict on the global outlook, with growth now expected to come in below trend over the next two years. From rising energy prices to uneven impacts across major economies, they explore why Europe, the UK and Japan are more exposed, while the US, China and Canada may prove more resilient.
Joseph explains how the surge in oil and gas prices is feeding into inflation, raising the risk that central banks will need to tighten policy further. He also outlines which economies and industries are most exposed to higher energy costs, and what it could mean for households, businesses and the path for global interest rates.
Plus, CommBank’s Senior Economist Ryan Felsman shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Middle East conflict has entered its second month, but is a resolution any closer or are markets underestimating the risk of a prolonged war?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about why a quick end to the conflict remains unlikely despite ongoing claims of progress. From the resilience of the Iranian regime to the lack of alignment between US, Israeli and Iranian objectives, they explore why the conflict risks becoming a drawn-out strategic stalemate.
Dr Cartwright explains how disruptions to key energy routes and infrastructure are already impacting oil, gas and broader commodity markets, and why further escalation remains a real risk. He also outlines why a diplomatic solution remains out of reach, what it would take to end the conflict, and why the global economy may continue to feel the impact.
Plus, CommBank’s Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation has become one of the defining challenges for the Australian economy, but why did it take off and has Australia already hit its economic “speed limit”?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about how inflation re-accelerated and why the Reserve Bank of Australia had already begun tightening policy even before the latest escalation in the Middle East. From strong demand across households, government and business to constraints on supply, they explore what is driving inflation and how close Australia is to its limits on growth.
Belinda unpacks how different geopolitical scenarios, from a quick de-escalation to a prolonged disruption in energy markets, could shape the outlook for the Australian economy. She also explains the role of fiscal policy, and what it all means for the RBA’s next moves.
Plus, CommBank’s Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.