CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Have energy markets become too complacent about the risks of the Iran conflict?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank's Head of Commodities & Sustainability Research Vivek Dhar about why oil and fuel prices have eased despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. They discuss the role of global inventories, the risk of another energy price shock, and why the next few weeks could prove critical for oil markets.
They also explore what higher energy prices mean for Australian households and businesses, the outlook for petrol, gas and electricity prices, and how the crisis is reshaping the conversation around energy security, electrification and the transition to a lower-carbon economy.
Plus, CommBank’s Associate International Economist & Currency Strategist Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets this week.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global energy markets, but could agriculture be the next sector caught in the firing line?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Agricultural & Sustainability Economist Dennis Voznesenski about how the conflict in the Middle East is driving up fertiliser and fuel costs for farmers and exposing Australia’s reliance on imported agricultural inputs. From fertiliser shortages to pressure on grain production, they unpack how supply chain disruptions could eventually flow through to food prices and the broader economy.
Dennis explains why fertiliser prices have surged since the start of the conflict, why grain prices have not yet fully responded, and which parts of the agricultural sector are most exposed. He also discusses how farmers are adapting their practices, how quickly conditions could improve if a peace deal is reached, and what Australia can do to build greater agricultural resilience over the longer term.
Plus, CommBank International & Sustainable Economist John Oh shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest summit between Presidents Trump and Xi maintained the fragile trade truce between the US and China, but how much progress was really made on the issues shaping the global economy?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about what the summit means for the future of US-China relations, including the ongoing disputes over semiconductors, rare earths and Taiwan. He also discusses why China is unlikely to play a decisive role in ending the Iran conflict, and why the ceasefire remains fragile despite ongoing negotiations.

CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geo-Economics Joe Capurso then joins the conversation to discuss the economic impact of the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for global growth, inflation and energy markets. He also explains what the latest Chinese economic data reveals about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, whether more stimulus is likely, and the structural challenges shaping China’s long-term growth outlook.
Plus, CommBank Senior Associate in Market Strategy & Rates Research Michael Tang shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Budget attempts to tackle everything from inflation and housing to long-term budget repair, but how much will it really change the outlook for the Australian economy?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Head of Market Strategy & Rates Research Adam Donaldson about the key measures in this year’s Budget and whether the Government struck the right balance between spending, savings and reform. From the impact on inflation and interest rates to the long-term path for deficits, debt and Australia’s economic resilience, they unpack what the Budget means for households, businesses and the broader economy.
Luke explains the major housing tax changes, including the end of negative gearing and reforms to capital gains tax, and what they could mean for home prices and affordability. Adam also discusses what the improved fiscal outlook means for Australia’s AAA credit rating, bond issuance and state budgets.
Plus, CommBank’s Associate International Economist & Currency Strategist Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets this week.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank has delivered another interest rate hike, but is the tightening cycle now nearing its end and how concerned should policymakers be about stagflation risks?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about the RBA’s latest decision to lift the cash rate to 4.35% and why inflation remains the central concern for policymakers. From rising inflation expectations to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, they unpack the difficult balancing act facing central banks as growth slows and supply shocks continue to pressure prices.
Belinda explains why the RBA now believes it has space to monitor developments from here, what could still trigger another rate hike later this year, and why maintaining credibility on inflation remains critical in a world of rolling economic shocks. She also discusses the risk of stagflation, the outlook for household spending and housing, and whether inflation pressures could prove more persistent than expected.
Plus, CommBank’s Harry Ottley shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.