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"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

Erik Torenberg, Nathan Labenz
"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis
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  • Zvi Mowshowitz on Longer Timelines, RL-induced Doom, and Why China is Refusing H20s
    Today, Zvi Mowshowitz returns to The Cognitive Revolution to discuss how recent AI developments like GPT-5 and IMO gold medals have led to modestly extended timelines despite being on-trend, while policy missteps around chip exports to China and alignment challenges from reinforcement learning have increased risk assessments, covering everything from live players in the AI race to safety funding priorities and virtuous actions for navigating our current moment. Check out our sponsors: Linear, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify. Shownotes below brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at: https://notion.com/lp/nathan Timeline Adjustment: Zvi has lengthened his AGI timelines because there haven't been "very large jumps in capability" that would significantly shorten them. The chance of AGI arriving in 2025 has decreased dramatically. Recent AI Achievements Context: While achievements like the IMO Gold medal are impressive, they appear to be on-trend rather than revolutionary breakthroughs that would drastically change timelines. Evaluation Standards: There's a discussion about the challenges of trustworthy AI evaluations, with Zvi emphasizing that watchdogs must maintain standards of rigor and integrity "vastly above" what others are held to. Policy Priority: A short-term policy priority should be preventing advanced AI chips (B30As) from being sold to China, which requires raising awareness about the implications. Nvidia's Influence: Concern is expressed about Nvidia potentially having excessive influence over White House rhetoric and plans regarding AI. Career Impact: Working for Anthropic is considered a "net good idea" for those wanting to make a positive impact, though there may be other organizations that offer better opportunities for influence. Sponsors: Linear: Linear is the system for modern product development. Nearly every AI company you've heard of is using Linear to build products. Get 6 months of Linear Business for free at https://linear.app/partners/tcr Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud that delivers better performance, faster speeds, and significantly lower costs, including up to 50% less for compute, 70% for storage, and 80% for networking. Run any workload, from infrastructure to AI, in a high-availability environment and try OCI for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing
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  • In-AI Advertising: Better Answers for Users, Big Questions for Society, with ZeroClick's Ryan Hudson
    Today Ryan Hudson, Founder and CEO of ZeroClick, joins The Cognitive Revolution to discuss creating advertising infrastructure for AI applications through paid inference-time consideration of advertiser content, examining how to build sustainable monetization for free-tier AI services while learning from the successes and failures of social media's attention economy. Read the full transcript: ⁠https://storage.aipodcast.ing/transcripts/episode/tcr/00919313-9054-4afb-b08e-2ca84dbdbdda/combined_transcript.html Check out our sponsors: Google Gemini, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify. Shownotes below brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at: https://notion.com/lp/nathan ZeroClick's Evolution: Originally creators of Pi Ad Block, they've pivoted from ad blocking to building a native advertising system for AI platforms. AI Ad Platform Mechanics: Their system matches user queries with relevant advertising information in a contextual way, enabling paid inference time consideration of advertiser content. Developer Monetization: The platform helps AI developers monetize their free tiers while creating value for both users and advertisers. Shifting Intent Patterns: User queries in AI systems tend to be more exploratory and "upstream" in the funnel compared to direct search queries on Google. Multi-modal Potential: While ZeroClick is starting with text, there's future potential for visual advertising that could enhance AI experiences by showing real purchasable products. Market Void: There's currently a significant gap in the market for AI advertising solutions that ZeroClick is attempting to fill. Sponsors: Google Gemini 2.5. Model Family: The Google Gemini 2.5 family of models is now generally available, offering advanced reasoning for complex tasks and optimized performance for any scale. Start building in Google AI Studio at https://ai.dev Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud that delivers better performance, faster speeds, and significantly lower costs, including up to 50% less for compute, 70% for storage, and 80% for networking. Run any workload, from infrastructure to AI, in a high-availability environment and try OCI for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing
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  • Material Abundance: Radical AI’s Closed-Loop Lab Automates Scientific Discovery
    Today Joseph Krause and Jorge Colindres of Radical AI join The Cognitive Revolution to discuss their ambitious mission to revolutionize materials science by combining AI-powered discovery engines with fully autonomous robotic laboratories, exploring how they're accelerating the development of breakthrough materials like high-entropy alloys and room temperature superconductors that could unlock hypersonic flight, interplanetary travel, and other transformative technologies. Check out our sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify. Shownotes below brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠⁠notion.com/lp/nathan Material Development Challenges: Current material development faces three major obstacles: costs exceeding $100 million, 10-25 year commercialization timelines, and fragmentation between academic research and corporate R&D. Business Model Approach: Radical AI determined that selling software or licensing materials would be insufficient business models. Instead, they focus on selling materials at scale for high-impact industries. Focus on Processing IP: The real IP value in material science isn't just in composition patents but in the trade secrets of scaling production efficiently and cost-effectively. Public-Private Partnership: Radical AI advocates for government involvement in material science through public-private partnerships, particularly for critical applications in defense, energy, and advanced computing. China's Material Science Approach: China establishes entire manufacturing hubs around new material discoveries to scale production, demonstrating their prioritization of materials as foundational to innovation. Culture of Productive Failure: The company embraces daily failure as a necessary part of innovation, building on these failures to achieve breakthroughs. Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud that delivers better performance, faster speeds, and significantly lower costs, including up to 50% less for compute, 70% for storage, and 80% for networking. Run any workload, from infrastructure to AI, in a high-availability environment and try OCI for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive
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  • Untangling Neural Network Mechanisms: Goodfire's Lee Sharkey on Parameter-based Interpretability
    Today Lee Sharkey of Goodfire joins The Cognitive Revolution to discuss his research on parameter decomposition methods that break down neural networks into interpretable computational components, exploring how his team's "stochastic parameter decomposition" approach addresses the limitations of sparse autoencoders and offers new pathways for understanding, monitoring, and potentially steering AI systems at the mechanistic level. Check out our sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify. Shownotes below brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠⁠notion.com/lp/nathan Parameter vs. Activation Decomposition: Traditional interpretability methods like Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) focus on analyzing activations, while parameter decomposition focuses on understanding the parameters themselves - the actual "algorithm" of the neural network. No "True" Decomposition: None of the decompositions (whether sparse dictionary learning or parameter decomposition) are objectively "right" because they're all attempting to discretize a fundamentally continuous object, inevitably introducing approximations. Tradeoff in Interpretability: There's a balance between reconstruction loss and causal importance - as you decompose networks more, reconstruction loss may worsen, but interpretability might improve up to a certain point. Potential Unlearning Applications: Parameter decomposition may make unlearning more straightforward than with SAEs because researchers are already working in parameter space and can directly modify vectors that perform specific functions. Function Detection vs. Input Direction: A function like "deception" might manifest in many different input directions that SAEs struggle to identify as a single concept, while parameter decomposition might better isolate such functionality. Knowledge Extraction Goal: A key aim is to extract knowledge from models by understanding how they "think," especially for tasks where models demonstrate superhuman capabilities. Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud that delivers better performance, faster speeds, and significantly lower costs, including up to 50% less for compute, 70% for storage, and 80% for networking. Run any workload, from infrastructure to AI, in a high-availability environment and try OCI for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive
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  • What if Humans Weaponize Superintelligence, w/ Tom Davidson, from Future of Life Institute Podcast
    Today Tom Davidson of Forethought joins Gus Docker of the Future of Life Institute podcast to discuss AI-enabled coups and how future AI systems could help powerful individuals seize political control, exploring three threat models—singular loyalties, secret loyalties, and exclusive access—along with their estimated 10% likelihood over the next 30 years and potential mitigation strategies. Check out our sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify. Shownotes below brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at ⁠https://⁠⁠notion.com/lp/nathan Three Primary AI Coup Enablement Methods: Tom Davidson identifies singular loyalties, secret loyalties, and distributed control as the main ways AI could enable coups. Singular Loyalties Risk: AI systems explicitly programmed to be loyal to specific individuals present a significant threat, especially when AI can fully replace humans in critical roles. Secret Loyalties Threat: AI systems with hidden backdoors or "sleeper agents" that can be activated to serve particular interests represent a subtle but dangerous coup vector. Geopolitical Implications: Advanced AI capabilities could enable nations to instigate coups in other countries through secretly loyal systems or by providing exclusive AI access to specific politicians. Adversarial Testing Framework: An effective approach involves red teams attempting to produce secret loyalties while blue teams try to detect them, revealing vulnerable points in AI systems. Military Procurement Principles: Developing consensus within military communities around principles like law-following and distributed control could create safer AI procurement processes. Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud that delivers better performance, faster speeds, and significantly lower costs, including up to 50% less for compute, 70% for storage, and 80% for networking. Run any workload, from infrastructure to AI, in a high-availability environment and try OCI for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing
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About "The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

A biweekly podcast where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock in the coming years. The Cognitive Revolution is part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: turpentine.co
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