China Stocks and Boeing, And Whether To Venture Into Troubled Waters
Our second podcast of this week and 2024 covers companies not priced for perfection, but that instead have struggled.
We start with China stocks, and the question of whether China is uninvestible. We go into Akram's July 2023 Alibaba trade views and how that was also an investment thesis. We also talk about the connected nature of global economics now and in history.
From there we jump to Boeing's travails and how much of those travails should be pinned on Boeing, and how much of them are part of doing business, and capitalism generally.
Related posts:
The Razor's Edge: China is Uninvestable??
The Razor's Edge: Boeing and Regulatory Capture in Capitalism
The Long and Short of the Markets: Boeing's Bad Week, and Going Beyond the Headlines
2:05 minute mark – the stakes with the China trade
6:20 – Restarting with Baba’s position and Akram’s July 2023 thesis on Alibaba
13:00 – The Baba buy case
19:00 – China’s import beyond China-based companies, crypto and politics asides
24:00 – China’s lagging performance and frontier market experience
34:30 – The concept of too hard
37:30 – Getting into Boeing’s issues and past regulatory stories
48:00 – Boeing’s track record in context of other industries, and shared responsibilities
59:00 – Boeing too big to fail?
1:07:00 – The capitalism angle
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1:17:30
Semiconductors: The Hottest Commodity On Earth (Or At Least Trading Like It)
The chip sector has been Hansel-level hot to start 2024. AMD and Nvidia have jumped 14% and 21% respectively in 2024, the SOXX ETF is up 8% in the last week, and the AI theme of 2023 is still driving things to start 2024.
What does this say about the sector, and why is it like being a favorite to win the Super Bowl? We discuss the excitement, the build out of AI, the usage, and how that all converges into questions for chip stocks.
This is the first of two episodes this week, with the second on a couple different topics, watch for that Thursday or Friday.
Referenced article: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io/razors-edge-nvidia-pide-piper-baidu-bumblings/
Referenced presentation/tweet: https://twitter.com/akramsrazor/status/1745029272140456325
Topics Covered
6:00 minute mark – Chip party
10:30- AMD’s spark
16:00 – The internet bubble comparison
21:00 – Feeling Peakish
24:30 – Hyperscalers data center build out and what could go wrong for Nvidia
34:00 – Apple’s Siri as an example of how AI will benefit us, vs. a new hardware assistant
45:30 – Are there any winners in a great AI software convergence
52:30 - Why it matters for chip stocks
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1:08:48
2023’s Big Finish: Where do we Stand? Is this another 2021? What makes sense?
Hey! We're back! It's been a while, but with 2023 finishing in such a one-direction flourish, we wanted to pick up the mic again. Akram and Daniel talk about what to make of the market's triumphal 2023. We cover the overall vibes in the market, but also get into the weeds on stocks like Nvidia, Micron, Docusign, Zoom, and even Alteryx and Roku, as well as a few older names.
The plan is to publish more in the year ahead. Hold us to it, and enjoy this episode.
Topics Covered
2:15 minute mark – A triumphal year for the market – justified?
9:00 – Financials as an example of shifting momentum and sentiment, as well as thematic trading and the speed of change
13:30 – End uses of AI – where are we at this point
20:00 - Nvidia as the locus of various tech hype cycles
28:00 – What does semiconductor cyclicality look like now?
34:15 – Are we in normal yet? For software or otherwise
51:00 – Speed of moves in the last quarter of 2023
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1:00:02
The AI Rally: Sorting out Heft from Hype
It's been a while since we've posted a Razor's Edge episode, and a lot has happened! A whole banking crisis came and went and apparently is all resolved (?). More relevant to the sort of things we talk about, the Nasdaq has returned to full bull market mode, powered by the excitement around generative AI, as best embodied by Nvidia's smashing earnings report of late May 2023.
There's a lot to be legitimately excited about with this trend, and at the same time, like every exciting new thing, there's a lot to be suspicious of. Is generative AI going to generate us right out of what was still a re-centering, declining tech market? Can generative AI be good for every publicly traded tech company except CHGG? When does chat GPT replace us as hosts?
That's what we cover on this week's episode, more or less.
Topics Covered
3:00 minute mark - The macro backdrop for this bifurcated rally
7:30 – What we learned from NVDA’s report
15:30 – How this AI compute trend plays out across the semiconductor sector
24:00 – AI uses and AI losers or trade-offs
34:00 – Bear market rally, death of permabears, and the many crosswinds
46:00 – How the cost-cutting rally collides with the AI investment rally
53:30 – How does anyone get an edge using AI
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1:07:54
The 2023 Market’s Squeezy, Trashy, Inevitable Start to the Year
It’s been a funky start to the year, as a dash for trash rally has extended into a not as bad as expected earnings rally, and now it’s easy to be wrongfooted.
We dive into this market, including how markets don't go straight to zero, no matter what December felt like; how recessions take a long time to play out; what we can learn from moves in Twilio and Meta; and why the rise of AI has complicated narratives.
The Razor’s Edge is an investing podcast that combines a prop trader’s viewpoint and deep-dive fundamental research to provide a unique take on the markets. The show is co-hosted by Akram’s Razor, a trader, tech enthusiast, meat lover, Marvel fanboy, battle tested activist short-seller and humble market servant, and by Daniel Shvartsman, VP of Content at Investing.com and someone who has seen thousands of investing pitches and ideas and how they play out over the past decade.
The duo start with a theme or idea from Akram’s investing, then break it down to understand what goes into the idea, what could go wrong, and what else investors and traders need to know. They also interview industry leaders, executives, and other investors to get a wider perspective. The show has thousands of listeners around the world.
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