Freight Rates, Futures, and Investor Risk with Sagil Capital Partner, Mark Hendricks
This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Sagil Capital Partner Mark Hendricks to break down how freight rate volatility is affecting both shippers and investors. They cover the latest NYFI and SCFI movements, widening differences between sub-trades, the newest global reliability numbers, and updates on the ONE Henry Hudson and Red Sea routing. Mark shares how equity investors value shipping companies in unstable markets and why futures and hedging tools matter as 2026 looks increasingly unpredictable.In this episode:Rate swings across Pacific and East Coast tradesHow investors model volatility in shipping equitiesWhy futures and hedging could lower financing riskUpdates on reliability, general average, and Red Sea trafficA fast, digestible look at the forces shaping container shipping and financial markets heading into 2026.
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27:39
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27:39
Tariff Turmoil, Vessel Fires, and the Small Wire That Took Down a Bridge
Global container rates are sliding fast — and volatility is here to stay. In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what’s happening across key trades and what it means for shippers heading into 2026.In this episode:NYFI and SCFI data showing sharp rate declines across Pacific and South American tradesHow new tools and freight rate derivatives can help manage volatilityImport trends suggesting major inventory reductions across U.S. retail sectorsA deep dive into the Los Angeles vessel fire — and why such incidents happen more often than you thinkThe astonishing root cause behind the Baltimore bridge collapse: a mislabeled signal wireIt’s a rapid-fire rundown of the latest forces shaping global trade — from collapsing rates to structural risks — with analysis only Supply Chain Secrets can deliver.
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19:36
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19:36
A Jittery Market, A Clear Signal: Lower Rates Ahead?
Rates are up, down, and sideways depending on origin, equipment, and trade lane — but beneath the noise, a clear forward signal is emerging: 2026 contract levels look set to decline. Lars and Caroline walk through the extreme pricing divergence across Asia and why the Trans-Pacific feels like multiple markets stitched together.Here’s what we break down this week:The $25 drop vs. $700 jump in 20-foot rates depending on originWhy the Trans-Pacific is splitting into multiple micro-marketsSouth America’s sharp rate collapse and what it signalsThe Red Sea reopening wildcard and the contract risks shippers are missingThe tariff updates that matter — and the ones that don’tWhy Hapag-Lloyd gained volume without giving up rateWhat carrier Q3 results reveal about next year’s landscapeFor shippers and NVOs planning 2026, this episode delivers the clearest read yet on where the market is headed.
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27:22
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27:22
Volatility Is Back — And So Are the Pirates
Rates are dropping, pirates are reappearing, and demand is diverging across the globe. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver unpack what last week’s NYSHEX London event revealed about market volatility — and why the container industry’s “old normal” isn’t coming back.They cover:Sir Richard Dearlove’s surprising optimism on the Red Sea crisisWhy NYFI data shows loaded spot rates collapsing againThe widening gap between 20’ and 40’ ratesWhat’s behind North America’s lagging demandAnd yes — the return of Somali piracy.Because in container shipping, stability isn’t the new normal — adaptability is.
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20:30
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20:30
Unsettled Seas: China Tariffs, Rate Shifts, and the Return of Pirates
Container shipping just won’t sit still.This week, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack the latest volatility across global trades — from Pacific spot rates showing strange regional “vibrations,” to a 20–30% capacity surge on the transatlantic that’s pushing rates to decade lows.They also break down the temporary pause in the U.S.–China trade war — what it really means for importers heading into 2026 — and why a new uptick in Somali piracy adds one more layer of complexity to an already unsettled market.Topics include:Pacific rate patterns after Golden WeekMSC’s mega-vessels reshaping the AtlanticThe U.S.–China tariff “ceasefire” and its 12-month deadlineRenewed piracy risks off East Africa
The Supply Chain Secrets Podcast cuts through the noise to bring you real, unfiltered insights from the front lines of global logistics. Whether you’re a shipper, NVO, carrier, or just someone who needs to stay ahead of market shifts, we deliver analysis and hard-hitting conversations that actually matter. Visit nyshex.com/podcast to register to attend live!
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