Supply Chain Secrets

Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Maersk posted a second consecutive quarter of negative EBIT.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Rate movements across Asia-US West Coast, Asia-US East Coast, and Asia-North Europe, including what freight futures are signaling for peak season
The latest Hormuz developments including two new vessel attacks and the short-lived US military escort operation
March global demand data: why the headline -2.4% masks a world that is otherwise still growing at 5-8%
Maersk Q1 results and what two consecutive quarters of negative EBIT signals for carrier health

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months, yet TransPacific and Asia-Europe freight rates are barely moving compared to the disruptions of 2024-2025. This week, Lars and Caroline put the Hormuz crisis in proper context and cover the other headlines reshaping ocean freight.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates are rising on seasonality, not the Hormuz crisis, and what the futures market is signaling for peak season
Live updates from the Strait of Hormuz: vessel escorts, Iranian attacks, and why seafarers face higher risk inside a military convoy than outside one
How Khor Fakkan scaled from 100 to 6,000 trucks per day to route cargo around a closed strait
China's new blocking statutes, the EU analog that already exists, and why compliance is now a lose-lose for many companies
The MEPC decision expanding ECA coverage to the Northeast Atlantic and the net zero framework clinging to life support ahead of November

Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Transpacific NYFI movements by subtrade, including why Northeast Asia rates are more volatile than other origins
Why 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Transatlantic have completely decoupled -- and what that means if you're shipping dense cargo
Asia-North Europe spot rates weakening toward pre-crisis levels, while futures markets signal a recovery into May
Iran seizing MSC vessels, the Hormuz closure, and the return of Somali piracy
Plastics supply risk: why a Dow Chemical warning about ethylene and polyethylene shortages should be on every importer's radar
Ocean carrier reliability at 62% -- why the industry has systematically underperformed pre-pandemic norms, and what that means for global capacity

Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are paying and what that uncertainty means.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why expanding rate spreads across Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and Atlantic trades signal growing market uncertainty
The Strait of Hormuz situation: the failed opening, vessel U-turns, Iranian attacks on ships, and what comes next
Bunker fuel prices in context: why current levels, while high, are not the crisis they appear to be
U.S. consumer sentiment hitting a 66-year record low and what that means for container volumes

Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected.
In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface.
This episode covers:
 • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply
 • The role of bunker fuel in driving current rate increases
 • What early NYFI-linked futures activity is telling us about market expectations
 • How rerouting and limited transit through Hormuz are shaping capacity
 • The risk of escalation and what it could mean for key logistics gateways
 • Demand trends, including strong global growth and continued bifurcation
Plus, insights on OOCL’s latest earnings and what they reveal about volume vs. rate performance.